Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The Euro officially sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The Euro officially sucks Why b/c it doesn't show a storm? If it showed a major hit you'd be praising it like the bible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Why b/c it doesn't show a storm? If it showed a major hit you'd be praising it like the bible. Because it hasn't been reliable this winter. Almost unusable past day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The Euro officially sucks HPC agrees GUIDANCE DIVERGES FROM DAY 5 TUE ONWARD. DUE TO THE 00Z ECMWF TRENDING SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS WITH ENERGY CROSSING THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD... THAT MODEL EJECTS THE INITIAL WAVE EWD INTO THE ATLC AND THEN TAKES ANOTHER 1-2 DAYS TO DEVELOP ITS STRONGER WRN ATLC SFC LOW THAT ENDS UP ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE. 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW BEST CLUSTERING A LITTLE EWD OF THE 00Z GFS BUT THE GFS IS WITHIN THE SOLN ENVELOPE AND THE UKMET/CMC TRACKS ALSO FALL IN THE MIDDLE TO WRN HALF OF THE SPREAD. WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFERING THE BEST CONTINUITY AMONG GUIDANCE SO FAR... PREFER TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF MEANS WITH ABOUT 1/3 WEIGHTING OF THE GFS TO PROVIDE SOME ADDED STRENGTH FROM DAY 5 TUE ONWARD. IT IS HOPED THAT WITH A LARGER PROPORTION OF THE SUPPORTING ENERGY CROSSING A MAJORITY OF THE CONUS VERSUS ENTERING THE CONUS FROM CANADA WHERE MDLS HAVE MORE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SHRTWV FEATURES... THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE SOMEWHAT BETTER PREDICTABILITY THAN PRECEDING SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE EAST COAST. http://www.hpc.ncep....epd/preepd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Because it hasn't been reliable this winter. Almost unusable past day 5 Well the weather pattern certainly hasn't been an easy one for the models to handle, I don't know what the verification scores are up through now for the Euro or other models but it just seems all the models have had a tough handle, throw in an incredibly strong -NAO/-AO and that further complicates things. This one will probably either be a hit (potentially a big one) or something that goes wide right. I really think we either get pounded or get nothing at all...no middle ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I don't think that it will whiff.....I'm sticking to my cc canal-ACK track for now, but the trend for the blocking to hold on for a longer duration is concerning me. I hope this doesn't trend to another BM, immediate shore circle-jerk. I hate those storms in which the cf never clears Boston and the immediate n shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I don't think that it will whiff.....I'm sticking to my cc canal-ACK track for now, but the trend for the blocking to hold on for a longer duration is concerning me. I hope this doesn't trend to another BM, immediate shore circle-jerk. I hate those storms in which the cf never clears Boston and the immediate n shore. The blocking is certainly concerning, considering the role we have seen the blocking play the past few years I'm a little hesitant to go against its powers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The blocking is certainly concerning, considering the role we have seen the blocking play the past few years I'm a little hesitant to go against its powers. I'm sick of it....it has done nothing but hurt me and has yet to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm sick of it....it has done nothing but hurt me and has yet to help. I certainly hope it goes away, it certainly hasn't really helped us. Actually I'm a little worried for the long-term, looks like the pattern will remain potentially active for the next 7-10 days but if some of the long range signals are correct we are about to see some big time blocking and some brutal cold...brutal cold and dry...the jet stream would probably be suppressed down into TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I certainly hope it goes away, it certainly hasn't really helped us. Actually I'm a little worried for the long-term, looks like the pattern will remain potentially active for the next 7-10 days but if some of the long range signals are correct we are about to see some big time blocking and some brutal cold...brutal cold and dry...the jet stream would probably be suppressed down into TX All I ask is for one good storm beforehand, then release the arctic hounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 All I ask is for one good storm beforehand, then release the arctic hounds. It would be nice to get a big snow storm, then the big cold and then another big snow storm after the big cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 All I ask is for one good storm beforehand, then release the arctic hounds. That's all I'd like as well. Then once we see the Arctic blast relax gives us another one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That's all I'd like as well. Then once we see the Arctic blast relax gives us another one lol you almost stole my post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It is time for an old fashioned New England snowstorm. Enough of relying on coastals and redeveloper hanging by the end of our finger storms. Just a low the moves in from the sw just south of the area, slows a bit and taps some atlantic moisuture, lasts for 12 hours and leaves 8 or 9 inches. Apparently some signs of NAO relaxing on the overnight guidance....I would welcome this, assuming that it will build back in at some point. Stepping back from what has seemed like a great pattern, I live near Concord NH and have had 13 inches of snow and exactly one snowstorm by Jan 7. The worst year since I moved here 3 years ago. No prospect to exceed 20 inches by mid month. I believe this will change in a big way, but not until the pattern really shifts. There...I got it out. Back to finding ways to get more than 4 inches this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It is time for an old fashioned New England snowstorm. Enough of relying on coastals and redeveloper hanging by the end of our finger storms. Just a low the moves in from the sw just south of the area, slows a bit and taps some atlantic moisuture, lasts for 12 hours and leaves 8 or 9 inches. Apparently some signs of NAO relaxing on the overnight guidance....I would welcome this, assuming that it will build back in at some point. Stepping back from what has seemed like a great pattern, I live near Concord NH and have had 13 inches of snow and exactly one snowstorm by Jan 7. The worst year since I moved here 3 years ago. No prospect to exceed 20 inches by mid month. I believe this will change in a big way, but not until the pattern really shifts. There...I got it out. Back to finding ways to get more than 4 inches this weekend Pretty bold statement I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 06z DGEX takes the low over NYC. Congrats, Logan11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Pretty bold statement I'd say. Whats my shot at getting 7 more inches by Jan 15? Either this next inv trof overperforms or the next week coastal gets far enough up here. Both are iffy I think. Now, after the 15th....that is a different deal. My over under is 40 by Jan 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Whats my shot at getting 7 more inches by Jan 15? Either this next inv trof overperforms or the next week coastal gets far enough up here. Both are iffy I think. Now, after the 15th....that is a different deal. My over under is 40 by Jan 31. I'd say it is way, way, way too soon to be worried about next week's storm. So much will change on that. I think a couple, three inches is a good lock for the weekend event and then we see what happens next week. I believe good things are in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'd say it is way, way, way too soon to be worried about next week's storm. So much will change on that. I think a couple, three inches is a good lock for the weekend event and then we see what happens next week. I believe good things are in store. Yes I am with you Eric. I was just stepping back and saying "damn!" Good things definitely in store. We score between Jan 15-31 in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'd say it is way, way, way too soon to be worried about next week's storm. So much will change on that. I think a couple, three inches is a good lock for the weekend event and then we see what happens next week. I believe good things are in store. I would not get to amped up for up here as far as Miller A's go, I won't get into it again but we usually have a very hard time getting a decent one here never mind being in the Jackpot, There will have to be a lot of people that are getting RN south of here for that to work out.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 The Euro officially sucks Never thought I'd read this from you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like the Miller Ray slesps with the fishes for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The GFS is a very frustring model, but entirely predictable at this range. I still say it runs the coast. GFS looked like this with the Boxing Day storm until it finally caught on. This one probably tracks somewhat west of that one. Looks like the Miller Ray slesps with the fishes for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The GFS is a very frustring model, but entirely predictable at this range. I still say it runs the coast. GFS looked like this with the Boxing Day storm until it finally caught on. This one probably tracks somewhat west of that one. Yeah it could..just saying what it shows. Still lots of time with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It's just been my sense looking at the evolving long wave features. I certainly haven't given it "messenger-like" scrutiny. Yeah it could..just saying what it shows. Still lots of time with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Gefs looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Gefs looking good. Yeah nw of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like the Miller Ray slesps with the fishes for now. I'm going to flip if this storm doesn't give us 20". It appears this could just be another pedestrian event or even a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You sound like Ray. LOL I'm going to flip if this storm doesn't give us 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm going to flip if this storm doesn't give us 20". It appears this could just be another pedestrian event or even a whiff. HECS or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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