weatherMA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm feeling some '07-'08 era weenie chucking right now. I don't think we've had this kind of model agreement at this range (for a good solution) in a long time...almost stress free. lol Until all the 00z models go out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm feeling some '07-'08 era weenie chucking right now. I don't think we've had this kind of model agreement at this range (for a good solution) in a long time...almost stress free. lol ... I've been too snakebit to chuck at this range. Maybe if by this time tomorrow they're still in agreement I'll be flinging franks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm feeling some '07-'08 era weenie chucking right now. I don't think we've had this kind of model agreement at this range (for a good solution) in a long time...almost stress free. You can lock a plowable snow for us because we are essentially ground zero, at the moment; worst case scenario that I view as plausible is this tucking back to about Messenger's place, which would shift the heaviest deformation potential out to the western half of the state and perhaps taint me a hair. You will not taint; your only concern is a dry slot, which is currently unlikely because you and I are in the wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You can lock a plowable snow for us because we are essentially ground zero, at the moment; worst case scenario that I view as plausible is this tucking back to about Messenger's place, which would shift the heaviest deformation potential out to the western half of the state and perhaps taint me a hair. You will not taint; your only concern is a dry slot, which is currently unlikely because you and I are in the wheelhouse. We said this last time lol...but no dryslot signature on the models this time. We should've been way more alarmed at the dryslot dagger the models punched into C MA last time, in retrospect. Hoping for a NAM/DGEX type deal as a best case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We said this last time lol...but no dryslot signature on the models this time. We should've been way more alarmed at the dryslot dagger the models punched into C MA last time, in retrospect. Hoping for a NAM/DGEX type deal as a best case scenario. Right.....I started an entire thread to reflect upon that in an effort to ensure that does not happen again......but anyway, all I said was to lock in a PLOWABLE snow and that this has potential to tuck a bit closer it, which the prior event did. I'm being far more reasonable this time and I am not expecting 15-25" of snow, however I could fathom us with HECS numbers....no neeed to go there until it's almost go-time. 8-16" to start. Haven't examined any guidance because I have been busy, but where is H5 going nuts on the EURO and GFS, respectively?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 You can lock a plowable snow for us because we are essentially ground zero, at the moment; worst case scenario that I view as plausible is this tucking back to about Messenger's place, which would shift the heaviest deformation potential out to the western half of the state and perhaps taint me a hair. You will not taint; your only concern is a dry slot, which is currently unlikely because you and I are in the wheelhouse. I am probably the minority here other then a few others up this way, But i hope this time messenger heres drips and others taint..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Right.....I started an entire thread to reflect upon that in an effort to ensure that does not happen again......but anyway, all I said was to lock in a PLOWABLE snow and that this has potential to tuck a bit closer it, which the prior event did. I'm being far more reasonable this time and I am not expecting 15-25" of snow, however I could envision os with HECS numbers....no neeed to go there until it's almost go-time. 8-16" to start. Haven't examined any guidance because I have been busy, but where is H5 going nuts on the EURO and GFS, respectively?? On the Euro, the H5 low closes off in OH/W PA and then rides south of us. On the GFS it rides almost over us after closing off in the same area as the Euro , but that model just caught on at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I am probably the minority here other then a few others up this way, But i hope this time messenger heres drips and others taint..... Agreed 100%...no offense to Bob and messenger, but I hope this is a sleet and rain fest for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I am probably the minority here other then a few others up this way, But i hope this time messenger heres drips and others taint..... I'll second that motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 * woot woot woot * Storm Mode status. Now it's serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Agreed 100%...no offense to Bob and messenger, but I hope this is a sleet and rain fest for them. Yes, Thats the way it has to be with the trajectory of this storm or it has to track over ack, That would still work.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Everything looks pretty good at this stage. I love where all the upper level features are to try and put us in the sweet spot for the comma head...obviously there is still enough time for things to change but we are starting to hone in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On the Euro, the H5 low closes off in OH/W PA and then rides south of us. On the GFS it rides almost over us after closing off in the same area as the Euro , but that model just caught on at 18z. Also, the GFS ens/Euro ens has it going over about ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I am probably the minority here other then a few others up this way, But i hope this time messenger heres drips and others taint..... I love and appreciate the candor; it makes me nautious when folks like Bob try and herd everyone up into a cyber circle-jerk of sort, imploring the atmosphere to blanket ACK-Limestone, ME with a uniform canvas of 5.2".....swaying with shovels in hand to the tune of "Kumbaya", in perfect ghey harmony....fu** that. I want 2' with a cf planted on rt 128, while you smoke cirrus and Jerry drips. Football; I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I am probably the minority here other then a few others up this way, But i hope this time messenger heres drips and others taint..... I'm with you, of course. Nothing against our friends to the south, but the facts are that they hope we're fringed AGAIN. Nature of the beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Where is the H5 low at it's most rapid rate of deepening and it's lowest point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Actually, I stopped caring about this current "system" about 4 days ago, when it became apparent that there would be no storm and only an inverted trough....not worth the energy because 9/10 times you will lose in that sh** scenario....and I did. I've been all about this one ever since and it looks about perfect for me right now.....just inside the BM. I'm sure I will to some degree at some point, but there was no need of destroying every thread with it; I was going overboard and probably should have been tagged. Will and Brian are very patient guys. Can you believe I picked the Seahawks in my football pool? The only one. lol The Bills traded away Marshawn Lynch.Typical. Anyway, I don't think there is anything wrong with expressing how you feel. Even Sesame Street has room for Oscar the Grouch. Cautiously optimistic this storm will be a doozy. Big Winter incoming. Big Big WINTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Can you believe I picked the Seahawks in my football pool? The only one. lol The Bills traded away Marshawn Lynch.Typical. Anyway, I don't think there is anything wrong with expressing how you feel. Even Sesame Street has room for Oscar the Grouch. Cautiously optimistic this storm will be a doozy. Bib Winter incoming. Big Big WINTER. Props; riding an underdog is actually the besy way to go imo.....better shot you will lose, but the prospect of a much higher reward negates the higher risk....JMHO. You don't win much betting on the Yankees every year because the payout is relatively paltry even if they win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Where is the H5 low at it's most rapid rate of deepening and it's lowest point? Its deepening at its most just as its passing underneath SNE...its pretty optimal as depicted on the models. Probably for I-95 corridor...but that line can shift E or W in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaryS Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Ray and Jerry would hit this hard DGEX Coastal North Shore, namely Marblehead gets crushed by this model....!!! Time will tell.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Its deepening at its most just as its passing underneath SNE...its pretty optimal as depicted on the models. Probably for I-95 corridor...but that line can shift E or W in the coming days. All I ask is to not have the cf pinned from the immediate n shore to Boston proper......I always end up in a relative snowfall minimum when that is the case. I'd rather it make it to I 495 and end up on the seaward side of it, then get stuck in a powdery subsidence zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I love and appreciate the candor; it makes me nautious when folks like Bob try and herd everyone up into a cyber circle-jerk of sort, imploring the atmosphere to blanket ACK-Limestone, ME with a uniform canvas of 5.2".....swaying with shovels in hand to the tune of "Kumbaya", in perfect ghey harmony....fu** that. I want 2' with a cf planted on rt 128, while you smoke cirrus and Jerry drips. Football; I'm out. That combination is exceedingly rare. If I drip, you're almost sure to taint at some point. Will otoh is another story... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I hope the Jets don't score a point.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 That combination is exceedingly rare. If I drip, you're almost sure to taint at some point. Will otoh is another story... I don't mean "drip" as in rain.....that merely denotes that you are to the seaward side of the cf front, which does not have to mean any precip type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't mean "drip" as in rain.....that merely denotes that you are to the seaward side of the cf front, which does not have to mean any precip type issues. I can live with you getting 20 while I get 13. Denotes 2/9/69 type of event...."Lindsay" storm. I of course was home from college that weekend and got the full 2 foot brunt in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Way out of the SREFs range, but we post everything in these threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 SREFs really amped up....in fact they are probably more amped than the majority of us want. It basically tracks the low over eastern MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 SREFs really amped up....in fact they are probably more amped than the majority of us want. It basically tracks the low over eastern MA Even I might taint there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Oh no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Oh no. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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