weathafella Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'd almost worry a little more with ptype, rather than whiff, although right now...I feel like BOS will be ok. The H5 low really tries to keep the comma head going as it slides underneath, trying to capture the low. Yep. A whiff is unlikely. But as Pete said, whatever we get will include a fine dump of snow for a good long time before any taint and we have a good shot at all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'd almost worry a little more with ptype, rather than whiff, although right now...I feel like BOS will be ok. The H5 low really tries to keep the comma head going as it slides underneath, trying to capture the low. Yeah I think a whiff is getting pretty unlikely. Its been trending more amped with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Look good.....I'll take whatevr comes my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 More like caving to its ensembles. Yeah, that'd be a more accurate statement. At any rate, it's a total AWT moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 me like the GFS.. to give me more snow above the 0.01" I got in the past 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Look good.....I'll take whatevr comes my way. no kidding this stuff the past two days blows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 no kidding this stuff the past two days blows.. Alot of nothin's but it sure is pretty...even a tiny amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Alot of nothin's but it sure is pretty...even a tiny amount. The nice thing here is we've been focused on last nights and tonight's system allow the Wed system to creep into the 4 day range without much weenie fanfare. I won't start looking too much into it until tomorrow sometime and even then I'lll be out most of the day in NH at a family party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Look good.....I'll take whatevr comes my way. Ray, could you please return to grousing. I find this new personna troubling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Euro ensembles shifted way colder. They reduce any potential torch near the 16th, although it's still possible. Nice overrunning look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Upton at 4:36, echoes what seems to be the consensus here while making me cringe at the thought of windblown snow again... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A SIGNIFICANT TO POSSIBLY VERY SIGNIFICANTWINTER STORM FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH A COASTAL LOW FORECAST TO LIKELY TRACK NEAR THE 40 NORTH/70 WEST BENCHMARK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...THEN IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I hope this thing goes over ORH, mountains ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Euro ensembles shifted way colder. They reduce any potential torch near the 16th, although it's still possible. Nice overrunning look. Yeah I had a feeling we could see that type of setup develop versus a full out torch. More of a gradient pattern...where the cold still falls in the western US but you get a finger of it extending eastward in Canada and the N Lakes/New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 ALB has been doing a great job with their AFD's lately. They have raised the chances for snow Tues night/Wed in the Berkshires immediately adjacent to my locale to "likely". Seems snow is in the cards and a more Western track than currently progged is certainly possible. THE MAIN FOCUS AND FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM ASSOCIATED WITH A NOR`EASTER MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS NOW LITTLE DOUBT THAT A STORM WILL EMERGE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND DEVELOP INTO A NOR`EASTER...HOWEVER THE EXACT STORM TRACK WHICH WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN DETERMINING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...IS STILL IN QUESTION. THE STORM WILL HAVE ORIGINS ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES BEFORE EMERGING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE A TROF MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH COULD END UP MERGING WITH THE NOR`EASTER. SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE OHIO VALLEY LOW MAY AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE COASTAL STORM DOES. HOWEVER...SNOWFALL WOULD QUITE A BIT HEAVIER IF THE NOR`EASTER TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH TRACKING THE NOR`EASTER CLOSER TO CAPE COD WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A GREATER THREAT OF HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF OUR AREA. THE TRACK FROM GFS IS THE FARTHEST EAST OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...WHILE THE GGEM IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE GFS POSITION. HOWEVER...THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW CLUSTERING OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR CAPE COD...AND EVEN THE MEAN POSITION IS WEST OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING THE OHIO VALLEY UPPER TROF AS STRONGER...WHICH WOULD TEND TO CAPTURE THE NOR`EASTER AND RESULT IN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TROF AT THIS TIME. THE STRENGTH OF THE UPSTREAM TROF WILL LIKELY HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE TRACK OF THE NOR`EASTER. SO AT THIS TIME THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CONTINUE TO MENTIONING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HWO. THE 12Z GEFS PROBABILITY OF 0.50" QPF IS GREATEST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...BUT WITH CHANCE VALUES BACK INTO EASTERN NY TOO. THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOWFALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah I had a feeling we could see that type of setup develop versus a full out torch. More of a gradient pattern...where the cold still falls in the western US but you get a finger of it extending eastward in Canada and the N Lakes/New England. Do you buy the big coastal the 18z GFS shows forming on the Arctic front at like Day 10? I'm thinking we're probably going to get colder than shown by 18z but not much snow...just looks squally to me with the surface low cutting well to the north and arctic cold moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Yeah I had a feeling we could see that type of setup develop versus a full out torch. More of a gradient pattern...where the cold still falls in the western US but you get a finger of it extending eastward in Canada and the N Lakes/New England. Hopefully it's right. It had the look for a couple of days, where you could see a kink in the isobars, south of sne...even on the ensemble run, which is why I said it would make Jerry happy..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Do you buy the big coastal the 18z GFS shows forming on the Arctic front at like Day 10? I'm thinking we're probably going to get colder than shown by 18z but not much snow...just looks squally to me with the surface low cutting well to the north and arctic cold moving in. I really havent looked at any individual storm threats beyond this next one. Pattern is kind of volatile in that time frame with the NAO block at least temporarily broken down...so anything could happen. The GFS tries to rebuilt the block a bit around then, but there's no guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 18z GFS Ensembles take it a bit inside the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS ensembles look to pass just east of ACK. Looks like the low tries to elongate west on the surface progs. That might signal it wants to keep precip wrapped in closer to sne for longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS ensembles look to pass just east of ACK. Looks like the low tries to elongate west on the surface progs. That might signal it wants to keep precip wrapped in closer to sne for longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ensembles are def juicier on the whole vs the OP run which keeps a much smaller area of 0.50"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Ray and Jerry would hit this hard DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Lookin like a widespread 6--10. I like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Lookin like a widespread 6--10. I like. The clan grows. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 CoT baby...we're all gonna be smiling Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well, seeing as how so many have that logo ... I fixed the white line artifact. Here's Revision 2. Use at your own peril. Muahahahahaaaa! Gotta say it's looking damn good for snow midweek. What could go wrong? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well, seeing as how so many have that logo ... I fixed the white line artifact. Here's Revision 2. Use at your own peril. Muahahahahaaaa! Gotta say it's looking damn good for snow midweek. What could go wrong? lol I think we are in on this one, Only looks like it can get better from here........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well, seeing as how so many have that logo ... I fixed the white line artifact. Here's Revision 2. Use at your own peril. Muahahahahaaaa! Gotta say it's looking damn good for snow midweek. What could go wrong? lol Model agreement this far out is excellent...Euro/GFS op and Euro/GFS ens all onboard, and all at under 100 hours. Plowable snow likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The nice thing here is we've been focused on last nights and tonight's system allow the Wed system to creep into the 4 day range without much weenie fanfare. I won't start looking too much into it until tomorrow sometime and even then I'lll be out most of the day in NH at a family party. Actually, I stopped caring about this current "system" about 4 days ago, when it became apparent that there would be no storm and only an inverted trough....not worth the energy because 9/10 times you will lose in that sh** scenario....and I did. I've been all about this one ever since and it looks about perfect for me right now.....just inside the BM. Ray, could you please return to grousing. I find this new personna troubling. I'm sure I will to some degree at some point, but there was no need of destroying every thread with it; I was going overboard and probably should have been tagged. Will and Brian are very patient guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Actually, I stopped caring about this current "system" about 4 days ago, when it became apparent that there would be no storm and only an inverted trough....not worth the energy because 9/10 times you will lose in that sh** scenario....and I did. I've been all about this one ever since and it looks about perfect for me right now.....just inside the BM. I'm sure I will to some degree at some point, but there was no need of destroying every thread with it; I was going overboard and probably should have been tagged. I'm feeling some '07-'08 era weenie chucking right now. I don't think we've had this kind of model agreement at this range (for a good solution) in a long time...almost stress free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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