Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Man the NAM is really amped up....that would bring ptype issues to most of I-95 south of SNE. Look at the 850 temp gradient along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 LOL just posted, As Kevin thought It would be a mundane event for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Man the NAM is really amped up....that would bring ptype issues to most of I-95 south of SNE. Yeah thus the question I had before - think it'll come to fruition? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 DGEX is a cold bomb fwiw... Here's qpf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It strikes me that this system has much more model continuity than any of the systems we've seen recently. Also it seems less dependent on a precarious set of requirements for it to come together. Is this the well modeled, coherent big Kahuna we've been waiting for? A storm that we watch come together and strike without as much hand wringing. I still think this one creeps in tighter. Not trying to be a killjoy for the Eastern folk but it's just my honest (albeit rudimentary) take on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 It strikes me that this system has much more model continuity than any of the systems we've seen recently. Also it seems less dependent on a precarious set of requirements for it to come together. Is this the well modeled, coherent big Kahuna we've been waiting for? A storm that we watch come together and strike without as much hand wringing. I still think this one creeps in tighter. Not trying to be a killjoy for the Eastern folk but it's just my honest (albeit rudimentary) take on things. I (notwithstanding personal bias) tend to agree. My hope is to maintain northerly flow in general and keep most of the qpf snow. I think that's a good possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I still think I look creepy in tights. Not trying to be a killjoy for the Eastern folk but it's just my honest (albeit rudimentary) take on things. Disagree, it's a look that suits you. I suggest trying it out at 2k on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 DT's forecast maps always trigger my pet peeves. D 3-6 or 5-8" -- What the heck? Just say 3-8" to cover the uncertainty. He always has continuity errors like 6-10" and then 12"+. In terms of his forecast, I think he's too bullish at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I (notwithstanding personal bias) tend to agree. My hope is to maintain northerly flow in general and keep most of the qpf snow. I think that's a good possibility. I would think even if my best case scenario (your worst case) were to happen BOS would get a sizable front end thump>brief mix to rain> back to snow as the rain snow line crashes back to the coast. CC and the islands wouldn't fair so well. It's a way off still but getting inside that 100hr marker and I think the chances of this not happening are rapidly decreasing. If we stay the course through the 00z tonight and the 12z tomorrow I would think a good hit for all would be a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Disagree, it's a look that suits you. I suggest trying it out at 2k on Monday. LOL, I rule my crew as a benevolent dictator. I must instill a certain level of fear to keep control over a rough and tumble group. Prancing about in a Peter Pan outfit would certainly undermine my authority. I'll leave the girly stuff to those better suited for it. Thanks for the kind words though. How long have you been thinking about guys in tights? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm not sure if I like the correction vector for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm not sure if I like the correction vector for this system. Too far NW? I was thinking I was safe..... perish the thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Here comes the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm not sure if I like the correction vector for this system. You're on a roll today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'm not sure if I like the correction vector for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS between ACK and the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS (18Z) brings it over the bm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS between ACK and the BM. Acceptable but can be improved upon. I like how this is shaping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Hmmm....a fine GFS run but a bit nonsensical in not wrapping the low up until it's past the BM already. Lots of snow verbatim but a weird evolution albeit a great track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS between ACK and the BM. GFS (18Z) brings it over the bm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Have to think it's fairly safe to lock in at least some accumulating snow Tuesday night/Wednesday now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Oh, I'm just now looking at the change vs 12z and wow, that is some move. GFS caving to Doc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I'd almost worry a little more with ptype, rather than whiff, although right now...I feel like BOS will be ok. The H5 low really tries to keep the comma head going as it slides underneath, trying to capture the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Oh, I'm just now looking at the change vs 12z and wow, that is some move. GFS caving to Doc. More like caving to its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Still has a little bit of work to do wrt intensity, but I bet that comes at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 More like caving to its ensembles. Yeah 12z Ensembles way NW of op... always a big sign that the op is on it's way toward the coast. I really like the look of this one... ptype issues coast but probably a solid hit for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Hmmm....a fine GFS run but a bit nonsensical in not wrapping the low up until it's past the BM already. Lots of snow verbatim but a weird evolution albeit a great track. Still drops 12"+ for SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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