Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Torch Last nights run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Torch? 12z... No sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 You keep posting 00z during the afternoons. This is pissing me off because I click on the Euro out to 240h link from within the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 EC Ensembles take the low in between ACK and the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 EC Ensembles take the low in between ACK and the BM. How about further south for the MA folks? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 EC Ensembles take the low in between ACK and the BM. With the Op just inside or over the BM they are just NW of the OP no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 How about further south for the MA folks? Thanks I posted in the main 12z model thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 With the Op just inside or over the BM they are just NW of the OP no? From what I can see, it almost looks dead on from the op. Any difference seems negligible in terms of track. You would still do fine, as this will be a large system, thanks to the OH valley primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 And FWIW... Confidence sure seems to be getting high for at least an advisory event, if not a moderate snowfall for some areas. I cannot help but notice where the highest probabilities are yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 And FWIW... Confidence sure seems to be getting high for at least an advisory event, if not a moderate snowfall for some areas. I cannot help but notice where the highest probabilities are yet again. I think confidence has increased big time today....as for the bolded, the highest probs are there because the storm hasn't gone on long enough further northeast to accumulate high amounts at that point. If the SREF went out to like 96h then you'd see the probs go up a lot to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 And FWIW... Confidence sure seems to be getting high for at least an advisory event, if not a moderate snowfall for some areas. I cannot help but notice where the highest probabilities are yet again. Will's gonna make a comment on the SREF's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 the SREFs are very consistent putting the low just S- SE of new england. the only question really is if the primary holds on longer or less time to spread areas further to the NW. overall, much of new england looks on tap for a significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I think confidence has increased big time today....as for the bolded, the highest probs are there because the storm hasn't gone on long enough further northeast to accumulate high amounts at that point. If the SREF went out to like 96h then you'd see the probs go up a lot to the northeast. Hah, understood. I think it would still jackpot at least the same area down here again and more to the northeast. You like the NAM right? Looks good to me once again FWIW at the end of the range. We wouldn't/won't run into p-type issues I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 AWT Kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 AWT Kev. Can you ask him on FB if he is going to apolgize to me and unblock me since I can't contact him? Seriously..someone ask him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Can you ask him on FB if he is going to apolgize to me and unblock me since I can't contact him? Seriously..someone ask him He's not a FB friend. I just liked his WXRisk FB page. Let it go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 He's not a FB friend. I just liked his WXRisk FB page. Let it go. No dude..he called me an A-hole on my page that a bunch of my friends got ..that is wrong..Then he deletes me. Someone needs to call him out on this since he told me I was wrong. Ginx..can you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 No dude..he called me an A-hole on my page that a bunch of my friends got ..that is wrong..Then he deletes me. Someone needs to call him out on this since he told me I was wrong. Ginx..can you? Hell, I'd call you an eekhole at times too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks a bit too progressive to be Ray's KU, but liking the look of a mod-heavy event up here. Track between ACK and the BM is ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 No dude..he called me an A-hole on my page that a bunch of my friends got ..that is wrong..Then he deletes me. Someone needs to call him out on this since he told me I was wrong. Ginx..can you? Considering the source that may very well be a term of endearment. Forget about him and enjoy your snow. See if you can't crack 20 for the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks a bit too progressive to be Ray's KU, but liking the look of a mod-heavy event up here. Track between ACK and the BM is ideal. A good rule of thumb is you never ever forecast KU (well 18"+) amounts until its very obvious....you normally need to get inside 24h to get to that point. We didn't even know we were going to get 20"+ from Jan '05 over most of eastern SNE until the final day. I'll say this though, this has the look at 5h where it could trend juicier as we get closer. The only thing we need to worry about is getting it too wrapped up west. I'm much more confident it won't whiff SE now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 A good rule of thumb is you never ever forecast KU (well 18"+) amounts until its very obvious....you normally need to get inside 24h to get to that point. We didn't even know we were going to get 20"+ from Jan '05 over most of eastern SNE until the final day. I'll say this though, this has the look at 5h where it could trend juicier as we get closer. The only thing we need to worry about is getting it too wrapped up west. I'm much more confident it won't whiff SE now. If we can get that ULL to capture the low as it exits the Hatteras coast. Seems to be what the Euro is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 A good rule of thumb is you never ever forecast KU (well 18"+) amounts until its very obvious....you normally need to get inside 24h to get to that point. We didn't even know we were going to get 20"+ from Jan '05 over most of eastern SNE until the final day. I'll say this though, this has the look at 5h where it could trend juicier as we get closer. The only thing we need to worry about is getting it too wrapped up west. I'm much more confident it won't whiff SE now. Yeah, with the Euro/GFS ens, op Euro, and SREF all hits I'm not worried about a whiff at all, nor do I want a KU. A nice 6-12'' event that was modeled as such is just what the doctor ordered...if we get a bit more, it's gravy. That being said, I wouldn't mind it a hair west of the Euro ens track either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Likely wrong but thought I'd post it. edit: Let me add that this would be a pretty big hit for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Man the NAM is really amped up....that would bring ptype issues to most of I-95 south of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Likely wrong but thought I'd post it. Shame we can't see a few more panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Shame we can't see a few more panels. DGEX will be out shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 DGEX will be out shortly. Already out on the snowNH ewall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 No dude..he called me an A-hole on my page that a bunch of my friends got ..that is wrong..Then he deletes me. Someone needs to call him out on this since he told me I was wrong. Ginx..can you? LOL just posted, As Kevin thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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