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Coastal Storm Potential - Jan 11-12


Baroclinic Zone

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I would think the torch idea will be muted as we go forward. With the exception of those few days at the begining of the month it strikes me that the cold has been over-performing.

Euro has -38C (850) in western Canada towards the end of this run....it looks like we are still getting some benefit from the -NAO and some ridging out west......

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Haven't the ensembles been consistently NW of the Op for the last few runs? With each Op run coming a little NW of the last? With over 100 hrs to go if this were to continue..... Also a weakening block? In addition, a number of people, much more astute than I, have expressed a feeling that this could in fact hug. Logan 11 for one and I think that Scott (coastalwx) has said similar things. You're right though, my biggest reasoning is it would benefit mby.lol

no it defintely could hug the coast and into the GOM, but i think the frontrunning wave along the gulf coast doesnt allow heights on the east coast to rise quick enough....and keeps things progressive. thats my crude take at least.

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Haven't the ensembles been consistently NW of the Op for the last few runs? With each Op run coming a little NW of the last? With over 100 hrs to go if this were to continue..... Also a weakening block? In addition, a number of people, much more astute than I, have expressed a feeling that this could in fact hug. Logan 11 for one and I think that Scott (coastalwx) has said similar things. You're right though, my biggest reasoning is it would benefit mby.lol

LOL, I never said this could hug..I said I didn't think we would see an ots solution.

Idid thnk that we may see a relaxation of the pattern allowing for cstl huggers, swfe, or something going near you or Logan, but that is way down the road.

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On the GFS. And psst....the Euro OP run if anything is a hair east of 0Z if not dead on. I'll post some straws but can't find the pics. Either way...your by will find a way to get good snows.

edit: Looks like last night's Euro ensembles were similar but a bit further east of op. Sorry.

Well, time will tell. Admittedly I have not been following things all that closely so please excuse me for confusing the GFS/Euro outputs. I've been spending more time out playing in the snow than watching virtual snow. Still, the GFS has been doing quite well as of late ,no? Or should we just discount it as it supports my contention? Yada Yada, in the final analysis your knowledge and experience exceeds mine so I will defer to you and your call. You are also correct that mby will find a way to get good snow. Hope you get a surprise dump tonight and we all do well with the mid-week system. Peace.

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LOL, I never said this could hug..I said I didn't think we would see an ots solution.

Idid thnk that we may see a relaxation of the pattern allowing for cstl huggers, swfe, or something going near you or Logan, but that is way down the road.

My bad, I knew that you had mentioned that you thought cstl huggers or even an inside runner was possible. I try to pay close attention to your posts as I have found them to be very illuminating for my understanding of things. I could have sworn that early on you had mentioned this system in particular. Sorry to have mentioned you without a clear recollection. In any event, just happy to have an active pattern to stay occupied with. I'm sure good things will come to all, that is why I'm in the CoT.lol

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My bad, I knew that you had mentioned that you thought cstl huggers or even an inside runner was possible. I try to pay close attention to your posts as I have found them to be very illuminating for my understanding of things. I could have sworn that early on you had mentioned this system in particular. Sorry to have mentioned you without a clear recollection. In any event, just happy to have an active pattern to stay occupied with. I'm sure good things will come to all, that is why I'm in the CoT.lol

I may have several days ago when anything was possible..lol.

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