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0z models 1.6


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At 114 hours there's a broad 1012mb surface low across the Southeast coastal states (FL/GA/SC). Heights are higher and more amplified compared to 12z, but it seems to me that it's just a hair off compared to the GFS which phases in energy from the west over the Plains and back towards the Arlatex and then tugs it towards the coast.

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Yup, it barely misses the phase at 126 and it slips out to sea. The precipitation doesn't get north of South-Central VA.

It's much closer than it's 12z run, and is likely headed in the right direction, but this run itself does not bring the surface low up the coast. In fact it goes out to sea by a good margin wide right.

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