Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 when there is a storm threat we should still be doing model threads over here.. many have asked where they went. thru 60 looks like the nam is dumping on places that dont deserve it as much as i do http://www.nco.ncep....am_p60_060m.gif storm 2 way off in the distance still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 when there is a storm threat we should still be doing model threads over here.. many have asked where they went. thru 60 looks like the nam is dumping on places that dont deserve it as much as i do http://www.nco.ncep....am_p60_060m.gif storm 2 way off in the distance still LWX pops seem pretty bull'ish for some light snow early Friday, but it looks like the nam is drying up while the gfs hasn't shown much for a couple of runs. By the way, as ugly as these threads sometimes get, I've always enjoyed them. And feel free to delete this to cut down on unwanted clutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 LWX pops seem pretty bull'ish for some light snow early Friday, but it looks like the nam is drying up while the gfs hasn't shown much for a couple of runs. By the way, as ugly as these threads sometimes get, I've always enjoyed them. And feel free to delete this to cut down on unwanted clutter. NAM drying up isn't good news. Frontal passages don't bring tons of snow here. It's good to step outside the regional box sometimes.. We are all watching stuff starting thousands of miles from our backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Really looks like the sweet spot for NAM setting up SERN NY state. What a gradient! It'll be interesting to see how accurately the model pinpoints this convergence zone. Bets are someone's going to be disappointed and someone's going to be sweetly surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'd gladly take the snow but that thing is probably a big forecast headache Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'd gladly take the snow but that thing is probably a big forecast headache yeah...especially considering the SREF's from early this afternoon are really all over the place with totals and bullseyes with this complex system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I have had more direct comments and overheard convos about poss snow Fri/Sat for N Va, DC Metrro. and So Md areas then I have for any other storm chance so far this winter season. I don't get it...is this being hyped by broadcast media? Not a slam, just a question....nothing on 00z mdels to support anything S of N NJ for any measurable snow. Or am i missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Major diffs off the west coast on the GFS compared to 18z at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 I have had more direct comments and overheard convos about poss snow Fri/Sat for N Va, DC Metrro. and So Md areas then I have for any other storm chance so far this winter season. I don't get it...is this being hyped by broadcast media? Not a slam, just a question....nothing on 00z mdels to support anything S of N NJ for any measurable snow. Or am i missing something? earlier runs of the nam were a little more impressive down here with the frontal passage and troughiness that becomes the norlun.. part of it might be the potential to impact the friday a.m. commute. there isnt much support for a lot more than a dusting-1" till you're northeast. gfs is sorta impressive up in the northeast considering its resolution.. though the placement is certainly different than the nam. http://www.nco.ncep....fs_p60_066m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Major diffs off the west coast on the GFS compared to 18z at 72. Do tell... generally I thought things were in the same zip code... which has been a challenge for guidance of late at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 gfs slower this run so far with the low in the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 earlier runs of the nam were a little more impressive down here with the frontal passage and troughiness that becomes the norlun.. part of it might be the potential to impact the friday a.m. commute. there isnt much support for a lot more than a dusting-1" till you're northeast. gfs is sorta impressive up in the northeast considering its resolution.. though the placement is certainly different than the nam. http://www.nco.ncep....fs_p60_066m.gif Agree 100% about potential for N NJ, northward into NE. I've had at least 10 texts/emails/calls asking "what's up for snow Fri/Sat", in this area. Way more than the Christmas/Boxer possibility, which was looking pretty good just 24 hours before. Funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 gfs definitely backing off the speed up of the southern wave the 18z had.. placement back to where 12z had it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I have had more direct comments and overheard convos about poss snow Fri/Sat for N Va, DC Metrro. and So Md areas then I have for any other storm chance so far this winter season. I don't get it...is this being hyped by broadcast media? Not a slam, just a question....nothing on 00z mdels to support anything S of N NJ for any measurable snow. Or am i missing something? No...you're right. It's another example of folks rightfully giving respect to the incredible complexity of this mass of mingling shortwaves. Anything could happen. Obviously, with us being within the 48-72 hour window, it's becoming a bit less obscure. However, the mesoscale complexity is still highly volatile..as is evident in the ensembles. I also think coming off the blizzard (and non-event) a week ago where a few miles in NJ meant the difference between 12" and 20", there's some hesitation in dismissing possibilities outright, while not jumping into a modelled solution with both feet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Man! That gulf low is moving oh so slowly from 78 to 96 on GFS. Could be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks a bit more amped down south. I think this run will be a little bit better than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 still so early but my guess is a middle ground between 18z and 12z scanning the different levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 phassing at 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 man this thing is lookng good low is west of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 it is putting down some nice qpf at the 102 panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 major snow ric 126hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 still the 500 pattern ne of the u.s. looks like it would squash more than 18z.. but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmizer Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Thank goodness for that 50/50 low, or else we'd be in trouble...but looks great at 120! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 huge hit for va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Earthlight says at 135 DC getting hit hard . At 141 we are getting rocked . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 still the 500 pattern ne of the u.s. looks like it would squash more than 18z.. but who knows should probably wait for the run to get farther...we get hit hard according to earthlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This is a big hit for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 dc crushed at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 south east va snow rain mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 by the time the storm comes, its going to rain itsself out not on this run.....and at 5 to 6 days out, maybe a dream, but DEFINITELY not a fantasy at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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