40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah thats a brutal forecast down there. I'm not sure how I would play it. SREF wasn't very high on more than an inch or two there either. Its a hard forecast for this area too...but the model discrepancy is larger down there. What I would do if I were you is forecast a dusting to an inch, falling back on climo for these events....like I was telling kbosch. Tough call when you actually have people who give a flying fook what you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Why bother it's drama queen time You gonna fire up the pit for some friday night snow? I cant wait just got the floodlights fixed, pit will be raging, food bevvies should be a classic weekend to be outside in southern new england! Hope you get lots of snow GInx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Why bother it's drama queen time I haven't done very much in the way of complaining today, chief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 rgem is in nyc thread but i can't interpret that godawful map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 rgem is in nyc thread but i can't interpret that godawful map mirrors the nam with a touch less qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah thats a brutal forecast down there. I'm not sure how I would play it. SREF wasn't very high on more than an inch or two there either. Its a hard forecast for this area too...but the model discrepancy is larger down there. Despite the fact it struck out wiith the bases loaded on the last event...you still have to lean to the ec as your best clutch performer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 rgem is in nyc thread but i can't interpret that godawful map It starts off the inverted trough in the same general spot as the NAM at 48h, but a bit weaker....its difficult to say what we would get because most of our snow would come after that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 rgem is in nyc thread but i can't interpret that godawful map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS looks good, even at this early stage of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 rgem is in nyc thread but i can't interpret that godawful map Pretty much 5-10 mm through NYC/Hudson Vly through 48h from the inv trof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I haven't done very much in the way of complaining today, chief. LOL just bustin dude, you can write it off but there is a hint of reverting back to some former solutions today, modeling is starting to come circling back, hmm sound familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS looks good, even at this early stage of the game. I like the the speed of that energy diving out of Canada vs 18z thru 18h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 LOL just bustin dude, you can write it off but there is a hint of reverting back to some former solutions today, modeling is starting to come circling back, hmm sound familiar? Good point, but I don't see this doing a "last week".....someone will likely decleare a "jackpot" from 6"+ over 2+ days, but....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You gonna fire up the pit for some friday night snow? I cant wait just got the floodlights fixed, pit will be raging, food bevvies should be a classic weekend to be outside in southern new england! Hope you get lots of snow GInx You know it, classic winter weekend, this will end with pixie dust under clear sky, hmm new moon........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 I like the the speed of that energy diving out of Canada vs 18z thru 18h. Still looking good through 30h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Good point, but I don't see this doing a "last week".....someone will likely decleare "jackpot" from 6"+ over 2+ days, but....... The term jackpot should be limited to double digit totals for anyone with dignity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Good point, but I don't see this doing a "last week".....someone will likely decleare a "jackpot" from 6"+ over 2+ days, but....... Would you be shocked if this dropped 12" for someone in CT/MA/RI/NH/ME? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Would you be shocked if this dropped 12" for someone in CT/MA/RI/NH/ME? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 bend it like beckham. is that nd energy stronger? looks ready to sling down very well positioned i think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GC getting some action by hr 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Getting hit nicely at 54h over just about all of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GC getting some action by hr 48. All of SNE getting decent snow at 51/54hr. Moves out of NYC Metro quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The GFS sags the PV a little more south over the Lakes, but in response...I think it shoves the inv trough further ne. You can see that on the gfs when you look at H5. The first lobe of vorticity pivots into sne after hr 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 @ 54 snow.. snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yes. Really? I would definitely not be surprised. Obviously it will be very localized, but I could definitely see some neighborhood in CT cashing in 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 DT maps out. He loves south of Bos to Hartford and then hooking up into extreme sw mass and well up into nys. south of that line 4-7 8-12 and possible bullseye of 16 nw of nyc. 1-3 norht of that line. map on storm visat or wxrisk facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 All of SNE getting decent snow at 51/54hr. Moves out of NYC Metro quickly. Yeah looks nice. Seems like a little orographics over the ORH hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Really? I would definitely not be surprised. Obviously it will be very localized, but I could definitely see some neighborhood in CT cashing in 12" I would favor ME over anywhere else; don't care what the models depict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 All of SNE getting decent snow at 51/54hr. Moves out of NYC Metro quickly. Yup, it's looking like a non-epic but good general area wide event. Nothing wrong with a widespread 2-4" with bigger lollipops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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