40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Ok Cpick...I'll be happy to share my measurement, as I always am.....to prove you wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The 5h rolling out under us in a parabolic arc again is nice to see. If we lock into that mode, I believe the more organized slower surface system evolves, we are slowly working all the way back to five days ago. Any rate it gon snow seems a lock,how much eh?, think Phils whiff is off the table100 % LOL[\b] clown. I said like two days ago I'd be more concerned about a miss/light event than the mid atlantic cashing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 P.s. Long live snowNH Lol... I never expected anything from this setup... My expectation was and is 1", which is pretty useless here IMO. I will never expect anything more from an inverted/norlun type scenario, because that is just stupid. The models could shift 50 miles in the last 24 hours, especially in this pattern. Its not possible to jump when you were never on the cliff... Enjoy the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This is true...LI has seen some 10" snowfalls from NORLUNs....I believe 1988 had one of them. We could see a small area of intense lift and great ratios with 850s around -10C. The one thing we have to keep in mind is how cold it's been this winter, and how cold each storm is...we're going to be seeing dendrites with snow immediately accumulating on roadways due to the cold temperatures at the surface and aloft. This could be a dangerous situation for drivers trapped in a heavy band that forms unexpectedly and without much notice. Upton NWS is definitely going with precaution and calling for near warning criteria snows here. The convective nature of NORLUNs, and the fact that they occur with ULL (meaning cold air aloft) usually allows for good snow ratios. It can really dump some dam good dendrites over a matter of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The 5h rolling out under us in a parabolic arc again is nice to see. If we lock into that mode, I believe the more organized slower surface system evolves, we are slowly working all the way back to five days ago. Any rate it gon snow seems a lock,how much eh?, think Phils whiff is off the table100 % LOL I was thinking earlier as I was out doing errands, that we might just work ourselves back to the runs of a few days ago.... I'd only be a little surprised, after what happened in the models on Dec 25 in this pattern anything is possible. If nothing else we are trending slowly better....that is the clear signal. And it now appears that the pv will come under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Man, that is a brutal snow hole going right into my BY on that map. Thankfully it probably won't play out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Moving right along to the Miller A.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think it's outstanding for your by but NYC...the city itself and NJ seems like just barely on the outside looking in per the graphics by cty I saw...see Bob's pic below. You get buried this run though...everyone from Yonkers on up. 12"+ for NorthShore on this run. Don't suppose we could la la la lock it now? Eventually I'm going to trust the NAM more than the other guidance on this one, but probably not before 12z tomorrow. Getting close though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Too much snow landing on the lobster traps. Nudge the stuff in the GOM west and we'll be chillin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Man, that is a brutal snow hole going right into my BY on that map. Thankfully it probably won't play out that way. How often is the SREF and NAM so far apart at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 How often is the SREF and NAM so far apart at this range? Not very often...but one comforting fact is that the NAM is the worst scoring model for QPF out of Euro/SREF/GFS/NAM at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 If only. I'll take one two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I don't care....let me rephrase; it's off the table for the majority of the area. I think it's impossible to say that yet. 15z tommorrow sure, right now I say nuts to you. The NAM would be the far southern outlier with its main qpf max versus those SREF members. I think that's a pretty good clue that there is some major bust potential around NYC if they go with a significant snow forecast. SREF's - in an environment changing as fast as this one why look at a suite that hasn't really performed well outside of 30 hours this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think it's time I give up on "much larger". Not for me but I have been told, settling for mid size can be satisfying if you are into that sort of thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Moving right along to the Miller Lite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well the fantasy snowfall has me at about 7 inches....but 12" southwest of here. Nice for amusement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 If we continue to see this idea of that nice consolidated pocket of vorticity moving in our direction...followed up by the upper air low passing to our s...we can probably hedge toward a more expansive event. If that energy ends up weaker we are probably looking at a more banded event favoring who knows where...with multiple screw jobs. Hopefully it's the former. It's nice to see that trend of a decent vortmax pivoting into sne. That seems to be the focus for the pseudo CCB band that tries to form down your way. I think your second point has taken shape today. That big s/w rounding the PV causes a wobble and brings the PV under sne. At the very least, it continues lighter Currier and Ives snow over sne, but you saw the 00z NAM. It wasn't far off from dragging more moisture sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think it's impossible to say that yet. 15z tommorrow sure, right now I say nuts to you. SREF's - in an environment changing as fast as this one why look at a suite that hasn't really performed well outside of 30 hours this winter? I'd hope to think we are entering the NAM's wheelhouse given that it's within 48h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think it's impossible to say that yet. 15z tommorrow sure, right now I say nuts to you. SREF's - in an environment changing as fast as this one why look at a suite that hasn't really performed well outside of 30 hours this winter? Not for me but I have been told, settling for mid size can be satisfying if you are into that sort of thing Good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Alright everyone, we're turning the corner! With the post-Christmas blizzard, Kev started most of the threads while the storm was modeled out to sea, then Bob stepped up and started the thread that lead to the famous 12z model run shift, and then we were off to the races. And so, as I said in beginning of that famous thread too, I got good vibes about this thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Moving right along to the Miller A.... Good luck with that. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 clown. I said like two days ago I'd be more concerned about a miss/light event than the mid atlantic cashing in. I know Dude filling in for the bald clown who is in his stocking cap with visions of WWW dancing in his head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Enjoy. http://www.americanw...tial-jan-11-12/ How about that miller A....more snow than this next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 How about that miller A....more snow than this next one. NE MA has a shot of doing as good or better than anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The NAM would be the far southern outlier with its main qpf max versus those SREF members. I think that's a pretty good clue that there is some major bust potential around NYC if they go with a significant snow forecast. the euro had basically nothing for NYC. its a highly volatile situation, but i certainly wouldnt put my eggs in a Norlun basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NE MA has a shot of doing as good or better than anyone. Maybe so, but I just think the ceiling for this is rather limited, mesoscale phenomena not whithstanding.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 the euro had basically nothing for NYC. its a highly volatile situation, but i certainly wouldnt put my eggs in a Norlun basket. Yeah thats a brutal forecast down there. I'm not sure how I would play it. SREF wasn't very high on more than an inch or two there either. Its a hard forecast for this area too...but the model discrepancy is larger down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NE MA has a shot of doing as good or better than anyone. Why bother it's drama queen time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Is it just me or has the new snow hole gone from being just the Ct Valley to 1/3 of SW and Central New England the past 2 winters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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