dryslot Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 My juju has invaded NCEP. Thats why i called you out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Each run has trended slowly towards something more organized. So far, so good. So what's the end game? The only way I see this playing out into a much bigger event - and I think it's trending that way is the "2nd" system and the trough morphing into one. We close off the mid level centers as they roll out under us and instead of it getting shunted as far NE it ends up somewhere to our south or southsoutheast before it craps out and waits for the main PV. The stronger it is the more it'll dig and the slower it'll be. The dynamics would still dampen out but we'd probably double or triple the apparent QPF we see now. Will want to see the GFS head tihs way too, I think it did at 18z just didn't find the end game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NAM is just incredible for NYC metro, a monster hit. I don't believe we can get that much from a Norlun trough, though; NWS Upton has released snowfall maps forecasting around 7" here, but I'd still believe this is more of a 3-6" event. Most of the modeling does show the Norlun setting up over NYC, but these events tend to be unpredictable and NAM frequently overdoes QPF. If it hung around long enough, you likely would. As usual, the question is how long does it last and most especially...where it sets up. NORLUNs can pound areas where it stalls for 6 hrs or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like someone left a snow gun on.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think so too, but my confidence is low. I know there will be a lot of changes even up to T-0 so I'm really emotionally invested in any solution yet. My goal is 2-3" to whiten everything back up. Yeah. It was a good run and just confirms the idea that plowable/accumulating snow is a good bet. Just as folks shouldnt have been jumping off balconies this morning or making proclamations that the event was dead....emotions should still be held in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 man mike i hope you jackpot soon. at least the ice is getting thicker He doesn't realize that GC is where that jackpot is ultimately ending up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah. It was a good run and just confirms the idea that plowable/accumulating snow is a good bet. Just as folks shouldnt have been jumping off balconies this morning or making proclamations that the event was dead....emotions should still be held in check. Admit it...it is funny to see people go rafters on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah. It was a good run and just confirms the idea that plowable/accumulating snow is a good bet. Just as folks shouldnt have been jumping off balconies this morning or making proclamations that the event was dead....emotions should still be held in check. P.s. Long live snowNH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah. It was a good run and just confirms the idea that plowable/accumulating snow is a good bet. Just as folks shouldnt have been jumping off balconies this morning or making proclamations that the event was dead....emotions should still be held in check. Yeah these setups can't be modeled very well until late in the game. I do like that the SREFs trended very nicely in our favor. NAM was close to something much bigger...but it really got you guys down in SE MA verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Admit it...it is funny to see people go rafters on us. Except the biggest one is asleep counting acorns......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What is GC? And congrats Pete. He doesn't realize that GC is where that jackpot is ultimately ending up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Oh and the NAM says you better head back to Hunter Mountain on Saturday. ..or maybe Plattekill for powder days ...if that verified. What is GC? And congrats Pete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 So what's the end game? The only way I see this playing out into a much bigger event - and I think it's trending that way is the "2nd" system and the trough morphing into one. We close off the mid level centers as they roll out under us and instead of it getting shunted as far NE it ends up somewhere to our south or southsoutheast before it craps out and waits for the main PV. The stronger it is the more it'll dig and the slower it'll be. The dynamics would still dampen out but we'd probably double or triple the apparent QPF we see now. Will want to see the GFS head tihs way too, I think it did at 18z just didn't find the end game. It's trying, but I think there will be a limit as to how great a solution we could have. I like the trend so far, and if the gfs looks even just a hair better than 18z..I think that's a good sign..even if only a small improvement. The euro and NAM were close to something much larger for sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah. It was a good run and just confirms the idea that plowable/accumulating snow is a good bet. Just as folks shouldnt have been jumping off balconies this morning or making proclamations that the event was dead....emotions should still be held in check. Thanks Dad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It's trying, but I think there will be a limit as to how great a solution we could have. I like the trend so far, and if the gfs looks even just a hair better than 18z..I think that's a good sign..even if only a small improvement. The euro and NAM were close to something much larger for sne. I think it's time to give up on "much larger". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It's trying, but I think there will be a limit as to how great a solution we could have. I like the trend so far, and if the gfs looks even just a hair better than 18z..I think that's a good sign..even if only a small improvement. The euro and NAM were close to something much larger for sne. In an ideal situation what's to prevent even the 500mb low from jumping out underneath us instead of the smooth movement east? If that pulse that rides up over us is strong enough it's conceiveable the next batch of energy would behave differently instead of getting slung around out and up into the Maritimes. Speculating and having fun as it's only one model and it could be totally off its rocker. But if we are going to have that 5h feature which really tries to drive a new low through 7h on down through 8 and maybe even the surface/along the trough...who's to say that may not be the big dog eventually? Even without a complete jump it could really snow like a bastage for several hours until it spins itself out. We see these dual center mid level lows up north in Canada but I never pay much attention to surface evolution as it's irrelevant to our weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah these setups can't be modeled very well until late in the game. I do like that the SREFs trended very nicely in our favor. NAM was close to something much bigger...but it really got you guys down in SE MA verbatim. If we continue to see this idea of that nice consolidated pocket of vorticity moving in our direction...followed up by the upper air low passing to our s...we can probably hedge toward a more expansive event. If that energy ends up weaker we are probably looking at a more banded event favoring who knows where...with multiple screw jobs. Hopefully it's the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Some good solutions in the SREF suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Thanks Dad i guess the Next WRF May point us into the direction of wether the Nam and SE NYC Will have a fire hose of snow soon. i mean how many runs have there been that show that area of SE NY SW CT and Cent. LI getting at least 6 inches....i would say more than half or them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think it's time to give up on "much larger". I don't. As modeled it's not the traditional type system but it's significant for most of RI, SE MA, southern CT, NY Metro and Long Island. It won't take much to push the .5 to .75 to 1 to 1.25 and shove the meaningful snow further nw. Again may be off its rocker but I really like the potential if this is close to what the other models say. they always blow the strength of 5h features and that would really benefit us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It's trying, but I think there will be a limit as to how great a solution we could have. I like the trend so far, and if the gfs looks even just a hair better than 18z..I think that's a good sign..even if only a small improvement. The euro and NAM were close to something much larger for sne. The 5h rolling out under us in a parabolic arc again is nice to see. If we lock into that mode, I believe the more organized slower surface system evolves, we are slowly working all the way back to five days ago. Any rate it gon snow seems a lock,how much eh?, think Phils whiff is off the table100 % LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Thanks Dad No problem, son. I'm always here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Some good solutions in the SREF suite A lot of them evolve greatly different from the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I don't. As modeled it's not the traditional type system but it's significant for most of RI, SE MA, southern CT, NY Metro and Long Island. It won't take much to push the .5 to .75 to 1 to 1.25 and shove the meaningful snow further nw. Again may be off its rocker but I really like the potential if this is close to what the other models say. they always blow the strength of 5h features and that would really benefit us. I don't care....let me rephrase; it's off the table for the majority of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Just looked at the 00z NAM after the C's game...climo be damned I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I don't care....let me rephrase; it's off the table for the majority of the area on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Some good solutions in the SREF suite Climo not be damned there. Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 If it hung around long enough, you likely would. As usual, the question is how long does it last and most especially...where it sets up. NORLUNs can pound areas where it stalls for 6 hrs or more. This is true...LI has seen some 10" snowfalls from NORLUNs....I believe 1988 had one of them. We could see a small area of intense lift and great ratios with 850s around -10C. The one thing we have to keep in mind is how cold it's been this winter, and how cold each storm is...we're going to be seeing dendrites with snow immediately accumulating on roadways due to the cold temperatures at the surface and aloft. This could be a dangerous situation for drivers trapped in a heavy band that forms unexpectedly and without much notice. Upton NWS is definitely going with precaution and calling for near warning criteria snows here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 A lot of them evolve greatly different from the NAM. Yeah, which is obviously a red flag for whats happening on these model solutions....it emphasizes the uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The NAM would be the far southern outlier with its main qpf max versus those SREF members. I think that's a pretty good clue that there is some major bust potential around NYC if they go with a significant snow forecast. Some good solutions in the SREF suit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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