dendrite Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Impressive seeing that qpf from the GFS ensembles. Maybe when all is said and done I end up with a deform band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Impressive seeing that qpf from the GFS ensembles. Yes it is. Goodl flag. You've been all over this legit trend today, hope it sticks (pun?) and shows up on Dr. Snow tonight. What usually happens in these situations as the system keeps coming into focus: 1. I get dry slotted 2. I get rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Impressive seeing that qpf from the GFS ensembles. Yeah that's a nice bump there. You can see in the mean the camp is likely split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah that's a nice bump there. You can see in the mean the camp is likely split. NOGAPS destroys you over to SE MA and RI....gets this area too but keeps the best stuff south a bit compared to GGEM and Ukie. Starting to look legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 juju Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NOGAPS destroys you over to SE MA and RI....gets this area too but keeps the best stuff south a bit compared to GGEM and Ukie. Starting to look legit. Starting to get Wood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NOGAPS destroys you over to SE MA and RI....gets this area too but keeps the best stuff south a bit compared to GGEM and Ukie. Starting to look legit. how does it look for eastern ct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 juju Almost there. One more run and we may have a really prolific snow producer that isn't quite as isolated. Amazing turn of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 juju Full circle baby, you heard that saying here first COT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NOGAPS destroys you over to SE MA and RI....gets this area too but keeps the best stuff south a bit compared to GGEM and Ukie. Starting to look legit. Definitely interesting. Will catch the euro later on...gonna get some sleep for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Almost there. One more run and we may have a really prolific snow producer that isn't quite as isolated. Amazing turn of events. Full circle baby, you heard that saying here first COT My threat threads rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Definitely interesting. Will catch the euro later on...gonna get some sleep for a bit. Sally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 euro FTL Or FTW ? i will find out manana nite fellas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 NCEP in the weeds again. They say take the 0z NAM and the 12z EC for resolution reasons....which I assume to mean thinks that we should disregard/discredit the others. So we are in good shape. ...LOW PRESSURE FORMING NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE SUN-MON... PREFERENCE: NAM OR 12Z ECMWF THE NAM AND 12Z ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN ALLOWING A PARENT SURFACE LOW TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY SUNDAY WHILE THE LOW THAT MOVES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY SATURDAY BECOMES AN OCCLUDED LOW. MEANWHILE...THE GFS...PERHAPS DUE TO COURSER RESOLUTION...CONSOLIDATES MORE OF THE SYSTEMS' DEEPENING INTO THE OCCLUDED LOW FARTHER FROM LAND WHILE MAINTAINING A MUCH WEAKER PARENT LOW. THE HIGHER RESOLVING GUIDANCE MAY PROVIDE A SLIGHT ADVANTAGE WITH THIS PARTICULAR INTERACTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Definitely interesting. Will catch the euro later on...gonna get some sleep for a bit. The interesting part in waiting for the Euro is that the Euro was the most bullish for this type of development on the previous model suite....and other models didn't like the idea. That will make a small part of messenger die inside that the Euro caught it first, but it should be interesting to see if it goes bonkers in an hour or so. I'm still pretty guarded...this could easily crap out into a light inverted trough that gives you a few inches and nothing for the rest of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 MM5 comes in slower than a Tim Wakefield knuckleball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The interesting part in waiting for the Euro is that the Euro was the most bullish for this type of development on the previous model suite....and other models didn't like the idea. That will make a small part of messenger die inside that the Euro caught it first, but it should be interesting to see if it goes bonkers in an hour or so. I'm still pretty guarded...this could easily crap out into a light inverted trough that gives you a few inches and nothing for the rest of the region. yep that 990 tucked inside the elbow gave me hope things were turning around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 MM5 comes in slower than a Tim Wakefield knuckleball I think they run the model on a graphing calculator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 MM5 comes in slower than a Tim Wakefield knuckleball Just wait for the 5km Amex WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Zoomed in GGEM QPF map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The interesting part in waiting for the Euro is that the Euro was the most bullish for this type of development on the previous model suite....and other models didn't like the idea. That will make a small part of messenger die inside that the Euro caught it first, but it should be interesting to see if it goes bonkers in an hour or so. I'm still pretty guarded...this could easily crap out into a light inverted trough that gives you a few inches and nothing for the rest of the region. Whether it goes bonkers or not - and like you I'd like to see it is kind of moot. It's not nor have any of these models been close to infallable at this range. The GFS had a transient low from time to time in the Carolinas but always crushed it. The NAM tried to do what these models are doing now with Fridays system but had no support. Euro may have picked the right train for a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 That GGEM solution is ridiculous. That would be a HECS for SE MA and a MECS for a lot of the rest of the region (except far western areas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 That GGEM solution is ridiculous. That would be a HECS for SE MA and a MECS for a lot of the rest of the region (except far western areas) If both GGEM solutions worked out, I would have my deepest cover since 96 , if only..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 If both GGEM solutions worked out, I would have my deepest cover since 96 , if only..... HECS followed by a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GEFS on board for tue/wed too (unlike the op) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 HECS followed by a HECS. Whether NCEP has a point we'll find out soon. They're basically saying go with the weaker NAM solution over all these other ones. They have some valid reasoning I'm just surprised they didn't mention the NAM's suck bias beyond 48 and in turn they go on to use it as reinforcement for an old EC run. Bring on a nice strong Euro and we're off to the races. As it is now looks like 3-6/4-8 potential in SE MA maybe EMA...not buying the GGEM yet but the RGEM would be even more insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Zoomed in GGEM QPF map. 125 Kevin to Ray 1.5 me to Will 2 to You scooter Jr and phil 18-24,,holy schizeer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 125 Kevin to Ray 1.5 me to Will 2 to You scooter Jr and phil 18-24,,holy schizeer Wait, you realize thats mm right? I think 26mm = 1inch Still impressive though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.