DomNH Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Looks like about .25'' from me to Dave in the Hubb with a bit more in GC from round 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 0.50"+ for SE MA. cweat has willed the snow to his house today. I may need to borrow him for an event later in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Congrats ACK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This is similar to yesterday's 18z run Congrats on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 0.50"+ for SE MA. cweat has willed the snow to his house today. I may need to borrow him for an event later in the winter. Preferably in March or April when he'll surely be raining and his will won't have any use in Plymouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think the GFS is trending towards a better setup, it appears the H5 low is trending further southeast. What is happening is that the polar jet stream energy is shearing out to the east a proper burial is needed as there is no amplified ridging occuring downstream, therefore it appears the H5 does it best to get its own low going, problem is that the polar jet stream energy is just too fast and the model biases are not helping us out, instead the fast polar flow is allowing this energy to speed out ahead of the H5 vort max. Still some time, but at least there won't be any phasing problems with this one, it looks purely H5 low related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yeah low tries to escape east but inverted trough ripped back west for round 2. Ekster FTW? Very similar to the event he mentioned yesterday. Still just a norlun type sig so hard to get overly excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I am going to take a page out of some of the other posters on here, What a horrible run it should be tossed......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This is similar to yesterday's 18z run Not really. It's a different s/w enitrely I believe and the evolution is all different. The GFS is displacing the surface low too far to the east in this situation I'm almost sure of it. Bias. Regardless BINGO we have a solution that delivers meangingful snow now to EMA - well actually two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Congrats on this run. Maybe we can serve up some RSM4 after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I am going to take a page out of some of the other posters on here, What a horrible run it should be tossed......... When I see a norlun crushing BOS and the South Shore 54 hours out, I like where we sit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Not for nothing, but is Windham County really that much less likely to see snow that the rest of CT. I'm not trying to whine or complain, but is there really enough confidence that there will be more or less snow in any part of the state? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Ekster FTW? Very similar to the event he mentioned yesterday. Still just a norlun type sig so hard to get overly excited Have you looked at all at 700/850? It's just as much a CCB as it is a norlun. Probably a combination of the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Congrats on this run. Theres Kevs warning criteria 8-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 so are we looking at 54hr norlun part two 0z gfs verbatim over SE ma up to orh then NE to ray nice QPF i think everyone in SNE Can agree to LOCK this Run up and we'd be smiling...yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 700mb low travels the south coast of CT/MA...nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 When I see a norlun crushing BOS and the South Shore 54 hours out, I like where we sit. You know it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 And it's still 48+ hours out, so there is room for improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Maybe dendrite. I agree with messenger as well. THe GFS does have a progressive bias, however La Ninas are notorious for having a faster polar jet flow so maybe the two are connected. However the GFS normally already carries a progressive bias still too soon for sure. it would be nice to have one last great snowstorm before I leave for Hot Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Not for nothing, but is Windham County really that much less likely to see snow that the rest of CT. I'm not trying to whine or complain, but is there really enough confidence that there will be more or less snow in any part of the state? its a gamble but if the GFS is right is game on especially in them dar hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Not really. It's a different s/w enitrely I believe and the evolution is all different. The GFS is displacing the surface low too far to the east in this situation I'm almost sure of it. Bias. Regardless BINGO we have a solution that delivers meangingful snow now to EMA - well actually two. Lol...we need a revote on who the biggest is in this thread....I thought it was cpickles now I'm not so sure. It is essentially the same as the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 700mb low travels the south coast of CT/MA...nice. correct...there seems to be a misunderstanding as to what's behind the change. THe surface low probably being artificially displaced to the SE is giving some fits. As you noted the mid level centers are now sliding along or under the coast which eventually leaves NE winds at many levels near the EMA area...impresive and cold 850mb winds off the water at 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 And it's still 48+ hours out, so there is room for improvement. North. I kind of turn into Kevin when I see norluns...what Mt. Tolland is to sleet is what SE NH is to norluns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS and NAM have been trending a slower H7 and H85 low departure and have been bringing them to the southeast more so each run since the 12z runs first caught onto it. It looks more like a CCB feature/inverted trough, I just want to see a nice snowstorm before I leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 its a gamble but if the GFS is right is game on especially in them dar hills i would say the vast majority of models say yes for norlun part 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 its a gamble but if the GFS is right is game on especially in them dar hills IF.........until 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Not really. It's a different s/w enitrely I believe and the evolution is all different. The GFS is displacing the surface low too far to the east in this situation I'm almost sure of it. Bias. Regardless BINGO we have a solution that delivers meangingful snow now to EMA - well actually two. I do think the GFS could tuck the SLP a tad closer just looking at the 500 maps. It looks like it escapes a bit too far E at 36h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 IF.........until 12z IF.... trends continue we all get the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Have you looked at all at 700/850? It's just as much a CCB as it is a norlun. Probably a combination of the two. It is an inverted trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Can't wait to hear Ray's enthusiasm of a part II Norlun/CCB Hybrid monster delivering 90% of his QPF. Seriously though - hope this trend in the upper and mid level holds since I'm thinking T-1" is most likely for MBY from the first round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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