Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 RGEM is close to nearing the perfect solution. We've got the low to mid level centers out under us finally so inflow would be increasing. 5h is still a little west so it wont stall there yet. I'm pretty much all set with the norlun, bring this bad boy on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 RGEM is close to nearing the perfect solution. We've got the low to mid level centers out under us finally so inflow would be increasing. 5h is still a little west so it wont stall there yet. I'm pretty much all set with the norlun, bring this bad boy on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 From those crazy kids over at da BOX AS FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES UNTIL WE REVIEW THE ENTIRE 00Z MODEL SUITE AND LATEST SREFS. HOWEVER...UNLESS WE SEE OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE...MOST OF THE WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE CONVERTED TO ADVISORIES. WE HAVE TO BE 80 PERCENT CONFIDENT TO UPGRADE TO WARNING/S. INVERTED TROUGHS CAN PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW...BUT THEIR USUALLY IN VERY LOCALIZED NARROW BANDS AND TOUGH TO SAY WHERE THEY SETUP EVEN IN THE VERY SHORT TERM. THIS IS CERTAINLY NOT A TYPICAL SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR OUR REGION. WE CAN SAY THAT OUR EXTREME WESTERN ZONES...MAINLY THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING WARNING CRITERIA SNOW. THE REASON FOR THIS IS BECAUSE OF SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY LEAD TO SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND THEIR INITIALLY CLOSEST TO WHERE THE MODELS INDICATE THE BEST SNOW GROWTH. ok...horrible horrible grammar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 RSM4 please (sure skews qpf for my back yard on the mean) Oops...I replied earlier, but my image wasn't updated.That member clearly is the one introducing the spread on the NCEP charts. It basically goes mini-MECS on us. I think we can throw that one out. The only claim to fame I can remember the RSM having was on that Jan 2010 WINDEX event. It had that monster snow band pegged days in advance and had it every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 RGEM is close to nearing the perfect solution. We've got the low to mid level centers out under us finally so inflow would be increasing. 5h is still a little west so it wont stall there yet. I'm pretty much all set with the norlun, bring this bad boy on. are you going to tip your chair if this "3rd Low" doesn't work out? cause you've been on this for what seems like 6+hrs...i think you may need an intervention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Gin I know you use those maps - I've never so what's your thought on what it shows verbatim? It's a nasty CCB forming but its just kissing the coast at 48. It's going to still be moving at that point, but I'd think it rides over the eastern areas. THis is probably the NAM without the shear bias later at 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I believe we are not at that overall pivotal point yet with the third system, normally inside 24 hours you get within the pivotal trending point and just give up and surrender and say hey, models this one is lost to the fish, we simply are not there at this time. Most models have been trending towards a stronger SPV vort max getting entrained into the H5 low. Problem is that the H5 low is still a tad too far to the northeast for an appreciable system to develop. Also the NAM does not have any interaction between the polar jet energy and the arctic jet energy (ie:SPV vort max). At this time it is still a wait and see process. Trends could continue to bring the h5 low to the southwest more, but only it can trend so much given the flatter upstream flow. BTW: It appears on water vapor imagery the downstream flow within the trough is a little more amplified, just an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif Well that's a bit unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 are you going to tip your chair if this "3rd Low" doesn't work out? cause you've been on this for what seems like 6+hrs...i think you may need an intervention oops, unless you're talking about the next storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 are you going to tip your chair if this "3rd Low" doesn't work out? cause you've been on this for what seems like 6+hrs...i think you may need an intervention LOL, if I get roped into this tomorrow only to have a last minute shift east I may smash the chair but won't tip it. Oddly though when you think of this year although the MBY results have not always been stellar we seem to have a tendency to pull these together in this range on the previous 2? I want the GFS west of the NAM. NOGAPs to hold trend, and Euro to probably exert dominance. I've got a few hours today invested into it but I was heavily anticipating this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Gin I know you use those maps - I've never so what's your thought on what it shows verbatim? It's a nasty CCB forming but its just kissing the coast at 48. It's going to still be moving at that point, but I'd think it rides over the eastern areas. THis is probably the NAM without the shear bias later at 5 That depiction nails Bob to you pretty well, but it is the RGEM so probably too far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well that's a bit unexpected. It's exactly what we need to happen. Now the question is, is it legit? The low will need time to toss moisture NW too. Where would it slow or stall? I'm guessing just off the Cape to the east. GFS UK EC had it first today, let's see what they come back with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 In full color. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It also moved west 300 miles, hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The GEM global and regional GEM models have a warm bias, so the RGEM is probably a tad too far west, a BM track is possible, but I don't think it ends up this far west. Right now it is a 25/75 percent shot at this happening even remotely close to the RGEM (ie: BM track). However the trends at H5 and H7 are appreciable with the 00z NAM, still enough time to figure this potential out given we are around 48H+ out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 In full color. Nice **** zone in there, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 That depiction nails Bob to you pretty well, but it is the RGEM so probably too far west Thanks. RGEM west bias, NAM east bias...be interesting to see what shakes. Really they agree fairly well through 48 with the minor difference between the NAM running a smidge south the entire time as the s/w tracks east resulting in a surface low just a smidge south. These two models were clueless at 12z, so lets see what the ring leaders have.....chinstrap time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Nice **** zone in there, It likely will fill in if the run continued, it is probably a result of its range 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 LOL, if I get roped into this tomorrow only to have a last minute shift east I may smash the chair but won't tip it. Oddly though when you think of this year although the MBY results have not always been stellar we seem to have a tendency to pull these together in this range on the previous 2? I want the GFS west of the NAM. NOGAPs to hold trend, and Euro to probably exert dominance. I've got a few hours today invested into it but I was heavily anticipating this run. hahahahaha, well perhaps you may be challenging cpick for WOTY, If only we could will the models with our minds and enthusiasm... hoping to score a coup at zero hour...that's balls to the wall, my friend...i won't complain if you're right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Thanks. RGEM west bias, NAM east bias...be interesting to see what shakes. Really they agree fairly well through 48 with the minor difference between the NAM running a smidge south the entire time as the s/w tracks east resulting in a surface low just a smidge south. These two models were clueless at 12z, so lets see what the ring leaders have.....chinstrap time. Certainly promising trends, 5 H needs a slow ride on a cheap ho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 messenger, I like how the NAM actually depicts the surface low staying intact as it scoots south of us as a result of the vorticity within the H5 low, the only thing keeping this from being a bigger problem is the weakening of the H5 low as it moves through our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 It likely will fill in if the run continued, it is probably a result of its range 48 hours. if the 5h low displaces sure, otherwise we're still fighting battlle of precip trying to get n nw while things are shuffling ENE. In any case....WOW. It's taking people some time to wrap their heads around this evolution today which I totally understand. If the rest of the suite comes in I really hope some focus shifts to the potential here. GFS to me is the key to believability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hahahahaha, well perhaps you may be challenging cpick for WOTY, If only we could will the models with our minds and enthusiasm... hoping to score a coup at zero hour...that's balls to the wall, my friend...i won't complain if you're right... You have no balls you have diamonds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hahahahaha, well perhaps you may be challenging cpick for WOTY, If only we could will the models with our minds and enthusiasm... hoping to score a coup at zero hour...that's balls to the wall, my friend...i won't complain if you're right... 48 hours til that event - he's just analyzing what he sees and what could be possible. He called the new low forming and has called the models trending it how they have so far, pretty impressive IMO even if it ends up failing in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 hahahahaha, well perhaps you may be challenging cpick for WOTY, If only we could will the models with our minds and enthusiasm... hoping to score a coup at zero hour...that's balls to the wall, my friend...i won't complain if you're right... LOL but not really. I got beat yesterday thinking the NAM was onto this very trend one system earlier. My posts will say the exact same things as these ones in what needed to happen which is we need it to maintain long enough that it doesnt get slung out...that the mid level centers jump with it SOUTH of us. It almost happened on the NAM, did happen on the RGEM. There's been hints of this for 24 hours but nothing concrete until 12z. Seeing as these two were the last models to catch the trend i'd prefer to see the GFS/UK before worrying. Certainly promising trends, 5 H needs a slow ride on a cheap ho Does it, or do we just need it to jump to the coast under the developing bomb? That's the only way we get a bomb there with enough giddy'up to slow things down and really let it rock. messenger, I like how the NAM actually depicts the surface low staying intact as it scoots south of us as a result of the vorticity within the H5 low, the only thing keeping this from being a bigger problem is the weakening of the H5 low as it moves through our latitude. We will see but that's probably the model bias. Been doing it all winter. Maybe this time it's right but the RGEM woudl say no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 48 hours til that event - he's just analyzing what he sees and what could be possible. He called the new low forming and has called the models trending it how they have so far, pretty impressive IMO even if it ends up failing in the end. I think a lot of us saw the potential for LP forming off the Delmarva when a potent 5 H approaches the coast its pretty common,, models clueing in finally but so far too late for any real impact, do not get your hopes up, this could in fact screw everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Question here is there a good link someone can point me two that shows the real time surface winds and where convergence zone's might be setting up in real time. anything on NCEP meso site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 GFS smokes NW CT and the Berkshires at 24h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 You have no balls you have diamonds. i don't have either...hahahahha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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