weathafella Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Definitely coming back at us.....63 hours the heavier stuff has backed in as close as Boston Light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 A slight trend and we're golden.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Bob one more run is all we need....one more good solid trend like this and everything changes and we'll have p-type issues Let's see what the other models do beyond 42 when the NAM has been shearing too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Interesting soundings all along that squall line the NAM shows, unstable ? T snow? Wiz mentioned this earlier today... Surprised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 A little rejuvenation for coastal ME/NH at 60. That's probably what some of the SREFs were doing later in the period accounting for the spread. Definitely liking 60+ ... remains to be seen if it turns out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 STJ is juiced we need this to motor out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confuzzled Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 what are you thinking in terms of ratios? I'd guess 13 to 18 sort of blending the earlier nam/gfs. I am leaning towards the lower end of that though. Omega values aren't very strong IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 A slight trend and we're golden.... Feeling better already? A good NAM is hard to keep down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 what are you thinking in terms of ratios? The strong banding will have the best ratios...so it helps to be in that as long as possible. I haven't really looked at BUFKIT much yet. I wouldn't go too crazy with ratios...maybe call it an avg of 12-15:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Definitely liking 60+ ... remains to be seen if it turns out that way. Inverted from the perverted end FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Inverted from the perverted end FTW lol ... unlike Ray, I'll take it any way I can get it. Looks all the same on the ground and the stat book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The strong banding will have the best ratios...so it helps to be in that as long as possible. I haven't really looked at BUFKIT much yet. I wouldn't go too crazy with ratios...maybe call it an avg of 12-15:1? I think some of the ratios earlier were almost 20:1 down by the Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Feeling better already? A good NAM is hard to keep down Man--that's close. Nice little peek over the ME coastline before heading east. Trend is your friend there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 LOL. Haven't even looked that'd be funny. -- The NAM looks similar but probably east of the old GGEM and along the lines of the 12z UK maybe a smidge east. The NAM has had the most difficulty beyond 42-48 at 500, with a marked tendency to shear at that stage off the east coast. What'll be great is that this is the one time it's dead on and we just miss. Wouldn't surprise me if the others on average were west of the NAM position 30-50 miles. We still need to see it shfit for other reasons one of which is we're limited with inflow unless it slides out under off NYC. It's come SE and kind of ends up off ACK we get what you see. I just dont know how much time is left for it to trend. Anxious to see the other models particularly the GFS/EC. The big problem is moisture. If we're going to head down this path it'd be better if we can get the mid levels to exit off Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I wish the ULL wasn't crapping the bed as it moves over SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well it's a close scrape. It's close to jumping down this way at 700...east flow over my head at one point. But it's the NAM and outside of 42 it's been losing the show. It came way towards the other side, now I'll keep my fingers crossed that the others keep trending because this just blows for a lot of folks. The trough gets squashed/rocketed north, and the storm snows still mainly miss. Almost hints at the 7/8h centers being just off the Cape towards 51ish. Ski MRG not meaning to snap at you but the signature is an obvious joke and I kind of take offense whenever someone accuses me of being biased. For 5 runs now things haven't been looking so hot with the through and in the last 2-3 we're gradually seeing a focus offshore. That's not bias, it's actually stating what's pretty obvious. Well Scott, as I've said before, I enjoy your analysis very much and certainly benefit from your insight. However, it strikes me that you derive a certain amount of glee in looking for ways that systems will fail. Nothing wrong with that, especially if thats what the tea leaves say. It just struck me that while your sig may be a joke the truth is often said in jest. Perhaps I should have stated things in a less accusatory way. When it comes to bias you are not likely to find someone more biased than myself as I always think there is a chance, however remote, for a system to deliver the goods. Sorry if I offended you, not my intent. That said, I still think this will produce here, models be damned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The strong banding will have the best ratios...so it helps to be in that as long as possible. I haven't really looked at BUFKIT much yet. I wouldn't go too crazy with ratios...maybe call it an avg of 12-15:1? nws in upton said 15:1 or 20:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Well...nothing too surprising in that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Okay. I'm out until 4:30. Hope to see some good things in the a.m. Suspect the watch will be gone when I return. Warning or Advisory? 7 hours will tell the tale. Have a good one folks. 18.2/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 nws in upton said 15:1 or 20:1 Closer to 35:1 or 40:1 near KTOL, prob'ly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Ok I'm out. See y'all early in the AM. Miserably early day and I'm determined to sleep. Gnight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Closer to 35:1 or 40:1 near KTOL, prob'ly. Especially with lapse rates of 15C/KM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Ok I'm out. See y'all early in the AM. Miserably early day and I'm determined to sleep. Gnight.. Me too. Hopefully a few surprises for some tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 The strong banding will have the best ratios...so it helps to be in that as long as possible. I haven't really looked at BUFKIT much yet. I wouldn't go too crazy with ratios...maybe call it an avg of 12-15:1? Could be talking out of my azz here, but don't these setups scream needles outside of good banding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think some of the ratios earlier were almost 20:1 down by the Catskills. I had "someone may get lucky with 20:1" in my original post, but edited it out before posting. It wouldn't shock me, but the band is weakening as it gets up here so I didn't want to be too aggressive. If it was me I think I'd go 15:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Could be talking out of my azz here, but don't these setups scream needles outside of good banding? They usually have pretty good snowgrowth given the nature of the upper levels. I suppose if the forcing is shallow, it may result in flakes that aren't all that great, but these usually have at least decent snowgrowth..usually very good snowgrowth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 lol ... unlike Ray, I'll take it any way I can get it. Looks all the same on the ground and the stat book. I've said all day how satisifed I am with this pattern.....do I hate inverted troughs, sure......but the end result will be a couple inches of snow, followed by a potential bomb and arctic cold. Nothing wrong with that. No one says a word when I makes positive statements like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 nws in upton said 15:1 or 20:1 His name is Dendrite...who you gonna believe??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 nws in upton said 15:1 or 20:1 From ALB's afd QPF RANGING FROM 0.30 TO 0.75 AT ALB. THE SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH AT LEAST 15 TO 1 AND POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER. SO...EVEN MARGINAL QPF COULD RESULT IN 7 TO 9+ INCHES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE KEY IN ATTAINING THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE WHERE THE SNOW SHIELD PIVOTS AS THE UPPER LOW TURN THE CORNER AND LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. SO...BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO WIDE RANGE IN QPF AMOUNTS AND EXPECTED HIGH SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS. THEREFORE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I wish the ULL wasn't crapping the bed as it moves over SNE. Me too, the precip seems to start dying out right before it gets over my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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