ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 SREFs have introduced a lot of uncertainty on the MA/NH coasts...and extreme S ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I don't think they are that bad. Good to monitor trends. edit: and away we go........ If I edited my animation to show 5 runs of the SREF's the trough is STILL getting worse each run but notice the 3rd low is better. At this point there's a lot of hints for eastern areas but will we end up with the trough being reduced enough that it doesnt do much AND the ocean system misses? That'd be tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 You guys look to be in good shape. And what the hell is the ULLR?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 already there at my house. 9.1F/7F Here to, post was an hour ago 9/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Here to, post was an hour ago 9/6. I think this is the appetizer to a feast of events for the next 3 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 SREF's are much beefier for system 3. Which in my eyes means absolutely nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 SREFs have introduced a lot of uncertainty on the MA/NH coasts...and extreme S ME. and they continue love western CT for what its worth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Wow what a powerhouse s/w coming through at 18. Looks a bit sheared but instead of two pieces of energy the NAM has one now. Nasty vorticity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I love how Messenger says he doesn't refract things through his own lens yet his sig proudly states " The wet rag on snowstorm potential since 1997". Priceless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 More energy on the backside of the ULL as well as the s/w in MO, which is S of it's 18z position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I think this is the appetizer to a feast of events for the next 3 months One would hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This dog is going to hunt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 SREF's are much beefier for system 3. Which in my eyes means absolutely nothing. SREFs are 2nd only to the Euro for qpf verification, so I think they are decent. That said, we'd have to see the individual members to see how many trended better for the coastal late in the game...it could just be 2 or 3 weenie members skewing the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 SREFs have introduced a lot of uncertainty on the MA/NH coasts...and extreme S ME. QPF bumped up here...must be a couple of juicy solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I love how Messenger says he doesn't refract things through his own lens yet his sig proudly states " The wet rag on snowstorm potential since 1997". Priceless. That's a pun for the feeble minded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Weak low is pretty deep down south, probably a bit south of the other models. Uber trough looks poised like a cheetah on a termite mound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I have been slammed by a chest and head cold. I need to be at a presentation tomorrow early ....leaving the house at 6:30AM. Not sure how much longer I can last tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Weak low is pretty deep down south, probably a bit south of the other models. Uber trough looks poised like a cheetah on a termite mound. 3mb stronger thru 30h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I have been slammed by a chest and head cold. I need to be at a presentation tomorrow early ....leaving the house at 6:30AM. Not sure how much longer I can last tonight. Get rest. You know you should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 little faster with the trough, don't see the .5 pop through 27 like we did for the same 24 hour period prior on SW CT...but not terribly different. If it's cold enough in NC they get a thing band of heavy snow per the NAM which is def. south initially of the 18z RGEM and others that had a close shave. EDIT It's trying to develop some moisture further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I have been slammed by a chest and head cold. I need to be at a presentation tomorrow early ....leaving the house at 6:30AM. Not sure how much longer I can last tonight. Jerry get some rest and feel better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Interesting soundings all along that squall line the NAM shows, unstable ? T snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 21z SREFs cut back on 4" probabilities back here to basically nothing. Still have no idea what the WS watches are out for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I have been slammed by a chest and head cold. I need to be at a presentation tomorrow early ....leaving the house at 6:30AM. Not sure how much longer I can last tonight. I will be in bed by 1030 but perhaps you can have the gfs texted to you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I will be in bed by 1030 but perhaps you can have the gfs texted to you LOL....nah I turn my phone off at bed time...will pick it up in the AM early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Pretty good run for CT through 36h....not much going on though northeast of there...inver trough into C MA by 33 and 36h but pretty weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 21z SREFs cut back on 4" probabilities back here to basically nothing. Still have no idea what the WS watches are out for. Could be bum graphics but they may be liking SE MA. 51h+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Interesting soundings all along that squall line the NAM shows, unstable ? T snow? It been showing the potential for convective elements for a while now. So yeah, Tsnow wouldn't be out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 3mb stronger thru 30h. Timing is going to be close. Snow breaking out rapidly around the Delmarva at 30ish. It's going to try to come north if it can get north fast enough we're golden...foot race with the system coming in from the west. EDIT: Btw 30h 0z NAM at 500 is about dead nuts on the 18z 36h. around the carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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