TalcottWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I laughed. Its threatening to become orlando cabrera on the ensembles but far from Manny Ramirez or David Ortiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Not on the 18Z runs... 18Z GFS rips it all north of here by 0Z tomorrow now. Really???? I thought you were smack in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Really???? I thought you were smack in the middle. Well stuck in the middle. Jerry Rafferty died this week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 At least this isn't totally vague: "APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...NEW ENGLAND... BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED TO ANCHOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVES ROTATING WNW TO ESE THROUGH THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWS FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA...WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE WAVE DEEPENING OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND THE JERSEY COAST WILL TRACK EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON DAY 2...SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOWFALL ENDING ACROSS THE SRN HUDSON VALLEY AND THE BERKSHIRES...BUT BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE PERSISTENT WNWLY FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWS FOR GOOD OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SNOWFALLS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST PA...WV...NC...AND SWRN VA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES AND ADJACENT DOWNWIND VALLEYS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE AND DEPTH OF THE VERY COLD AIRMASS/FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND DOWNWIND OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM TIME TO TIME ON FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 time sensistive: http://radar.weather...id=okx&loop=yes If I didn't know any better those look like a pair of arctic lows just S of LI... IR shows curl in the low cloud there too - they look kind of like boobs to me is this what you're referring to? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_low weird echos for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Its threatening to become orlando cabrera on the ensembles but far from Manny Ramirez or David Ortiz Certainly not a Manny or David. I wouldn't be surprised to see nothing more than a dusting or 6''...but I bet that becomes more clear tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 they look kind of like boobs to me is this what you're referring to? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_low weird echos for sure micro lows on the weak trough that extended up from the departing weak ocean low. OR a sign that the world is coming to an end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well stuck in the middle. Jerry Rafferty died this week... Really????? Baker Street will never be the same again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 QPF maps out...HPC not buying snow anywhere near the Delmarva, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'd say 2-4 for now, maybe a 3-6 or 4-8 for GC. Eastern areas have a shot of doing better due to possible coastal front interactions. ORH hills may do ok as well. It's possible some slantsticker like Pete may get more than that, but I don't think you can narrow that down. Should be some sick ratios. It also will depend on that third low. Some models like the euro try to redevelop snow over ern areas, inside of 495, later on Saturday Night and Sunday. If that happens, it could add a little more, but I think we need another run or two in order to be able to determine if this is feasible. It's possible it could come down good in your backyard for a while as that trough moves east. Geez Scott, a totally unprovoked attack. I can understand though that you are envious of this beautiful, snow prone area being that you live in a rain prone urban wasteland. I won't hold it against you. Pretty much agree with all the above. If Pete measures with long strands of his hair..it might not be all that accurate. Final call from me is 3-5 for all..lollis higher..who knows where I can understand your envy of someone with a full head of hair so I'll forgive you as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 18z NOGAPS hammers everyone for 24 -36 hours next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 QPF maps out...HPC not buying snow anywhere near the Delmarva, LOL. Let's just lock that map and call it an event, shall we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 18z NOGAPS hammers everyone for 24 -36 hours next week It did the same thing with our inverted flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Let's just lock that map and call it an event, shall we? It's like a QPF negative most of the time. It did the same thing with our inverted flake. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Dead time sucks. Hopefully the 00z models come in more robust and we get some renewed interest in this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wouldn't ir be a hoot if DT's 1st guess (8"-12" Cape) actually verified? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wouldn't ir be a hoot if DT's 1st guess (8"-12" Cape) actually verified? Has he done his "final call"? Suspect it looks a little different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wouldn't ir be a hoot if DT's 1st guess (8"-12" Cape) actually verified? HPC had me in 4-8 too. GFS ENS came way west at 18z. Can kind of see what's going on here as up to this point models are shifting trough north faster while making more space for the 3rd low to get awfully close. If the trend isn't a phantom this run toniight should be fun for some....I just wonder how much faster it will push the trough north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 HPC had me in 4-8 too. GFS ENS came way west at 18z. Can kind of see what's going on here as up to this point models are shifting trough north faster while making more space for the 3rd low to get awfully close. If the trend isn't a phantom this run toniight should be fun for some....I just wonder how much faster it will push the trough north? shouldn't you be comparing 84 to 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It did the same thing with our inverted flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 shouldn't you be comparing 84 to 90 Be great if they offered 6 hour runs on the site I was using but it wont change anything. It's moving further NE faster this run. A neater progression is watching the GFS for roughly the same 72 hour period since 0z last night. Walmart special. The outer cape/ack is into the .5 now. Clown graphics as it's not more than 1-3" any 12 hour period but the change west is significant and perhaps the start of something very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Mark Bellhorn equivalent of a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Awww Ray ...don't give up on the Miller A. You were right about this thing.... It did the same thing with our inverted flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 this has become really boring..over a few inches of snow...i almost kind of miss the days when occasionally there would be a bust in the opposite direction like waking up to a foot of snow when a dusting was called for. maybe next week's threat will be more interesting or the threat after that. this pattern should produce something substantial eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 JMA FTW in Northern VT... JMA brings it very close.... Liking the 18z NAM's shift east into VT with the heavy QPF, too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 this has become really boring..over a few inches of snow...i almost kind of miss the days when occasionally there would be a bust in the opposite direction like waking up to a foot of snow when a dusting was called for. maybe next week's threat will be more interesting or the threat after that. this pattern should produce something substantial eventually. This thread is likely way to long for a NORLUN threat, but not every storm is a blockbuster. We have small events all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 18z NOGAPS hammers everyone for 24 -36 hours next week Great model to have on your side. Bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This thread is likely way to long for a NORLUN threat, but not every storm is a blockbuster. We have small events all the time. This year, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This thread is likely way to long for a NORLUN threat, but not every storm is a blockbuster. We have small events all the time. I was thinking that, haha... I've only been able to check once every 24 hours and each day I come back there's another 25 pages of posts... so each day I think something big happened on the models but alas, nope. We just dying for something to talk about, lol. And as I say that, this post is just adding to the many, many posts of nothingness, haha. Someone in SNE sees 6" no problem in high ratio snowband. I think MRG and MPM take this one to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 JMA FTW in Northern VT... Liking the 18z NAM's shift east into VT with the heavy QPF, too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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