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Inverted Trough/ Redeveloper Disco Jan 7-9


Baroclinic Zone

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At least this isn't totally vague:

"APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...NEW ENGLAND...

BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS ARE

EXPECTED TO ANCHOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. SEVERAL

SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVES ROTATING WNW TO ESE

THROUGH THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES

ALLOWS FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL AND SIGNIFICANT

ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PENNSYLVANIA...WEST

VIRGINIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY

THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE WAVE DEEPENING OFFSHORE OF LONG

ISLAND AND THE JERSEY COAST WILL TRACK EAST OF THE BENCHMARK...AND

INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON DAY 2...SATURDAY/SATURDAY

NIGHT...WITH SNOWFALL ENDING ACROSS THE SRN HUDSON VALLEY AND THE

BERKSHIRES...BUT BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN

NEW ENGLAND AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE PERSISTENT WNWLY FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWS FOR GOOD

OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SNOWFALLS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST

PA...WV...NC...AND SWRN VA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-8 INCHES OF

SNOW OVER THE HIGHER RIDGES AND ADJACENT DOWNWIND VALLEYS. GIVEN

THE PERSISTENCE AND DEPTH OF THE VERY COLD AIRMASS/FLOW SPREADING

ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED

ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND DOWNWIND OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO

THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM TIME TO TIME ON FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH

SATURDAY EVENING."

sat_wv_hem_loop.gif

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Its threatening to become orlando cabrera on the ensembles but far from Manny Ramirez or David Ortiz

Certainly not a Manny or David.

I wouldn't be surprised to see nothing more than a dusting or 6''...but I bet that becomes more clear tonight and tomorrow.

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I'd say 2-4 for now, maybe a 3-6 or 4-8 for GC. Eastern areas have a shot of doing better due to possible coastal front interactions. ORH hills may do ok as well. It's possible some slantsticker like Pete may get more than that, but I don't think you can narrow that down. Should be some sick ratios.

It also will depend on that third low. Some models like the euro try to redevelop snow over ern areas, inside of 495, later on Saturday Night and Sunday. If that happens, it could add a little more, but I think we need another run or two in order to be able to determine if this is feasible.

It's possible it could come down good in your backyard for a while as that trough moves east.

Geez Scott, a totally unprovoked attack. I can understand though that you are envious of this beautiful, snow prone area being that you live in a rain prone urban wasteland. I won't hold it against you.

Pretty much agree with all the above. If Pete measures with long strands of his hair..it might not be all that accurate.

Final call from me is 3-5 for all..lollis higher..who knows where

I can understand your envy of someone with a full head of hair so I'll forgive you as well.

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Wouldn't ir be a hoot if DT's 1st guess (8"-12" Cape) actually verified?

HPC had me in 4-8 too.

GFS ENS came way west at 18z. Can kind of see what's going on here as up to this point models are shifting trough north faster while making more space for the 3rd low to get awfully close.

If the trend isn't a phantom this run toniight should be fun for some....I just wonder how much faster it will push the trough north?

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HPC had me in 4-8 too.

GFS ENS came way west at 18z. Can kind of see what's going on here as up to this point models are shifting trough north faster while making more space for the 3rd low to get awfully close.

If the trend isn't a phantom this run toniight should be fun for some....I just wonder how much faster it will push the trough north?

shouldn't you be comparing 84 to 90

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shouldn't you be comparing 84 to 90

Be great if they offered 6 hour runs on the site I was using but it wont change anything. It's moving further NE faster this run.

A neater progression is watching the GFS for roughly the same 72 hour period since 0z last night. Walmart special.

The outer cape/ack is into the .5 now. Clown graphics as it's not more than 1-3" any 12 hour period but the change west is significant and perhaps the start of something very good.

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this has become really boring..over a few inches of snow...i almost kind of miss the days when occasionally there would be a bust in the opposite direction like waking up to a foot of snow when a dusting was called for.

maybe next week's threat will be more interesting or the threat after that. this pattern should produce something substantial eventually.

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this has become really boring..over a few inches of snow...i almost kind of miss the days when occasionally there would be a bust in the opposite direction like waking up to a foot of snow when a dusting was called for.

maybe next week's threat will be more interesting or the threat after that. this pattern should produce something substantial eventually.

This thread is likely way to long for a NORLUN threat, but not every storm is a blockbuster. We have small events all the time.

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This thread is likely way to long for a NORLUN threat, but not every storm is a blockbuster. We have small events all the time.

I was thinking that, haha... I've only been able to check once every 24 hours and each day I come back there's another 25 pages of posts... so each day I think something big happened on the models but alas, nope. We just dying for something to talk about, lol.

And as I say that, this post is just adding to the many, many posts of nothingness, haha.

Someone in SNE sees 6" no problem in high ratio snowband. I think MRG and MPM take this one to the bank.

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