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Inverted Trough/ Redeveloper Disco Jan 7-9


Baroclinic Zone

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So what is your total snowfall forecast for SNE? 2-4 with higher lolis TBD?

I'd say 2-4 for now, maybe a 3-6 or 4-8 for GC. Eastern areas have a shot of doing better due to possible coastal front interactions. ORH hills may do ok as well. It's possible some slantsticker like Pete may get more than that, but I don't think you can narrow that down. Should be some sick ratios.

It also will depend on that third low. Some models like the euro try to redevelop snow over ern areas, inside of 495, later on Saturday Night and Sunday. If that happens, it could add a little more, but I think we need another run or two in order to be able to determine if this is feasible.

It's possible it could come down good in your backyard for a while as that trough moves east.

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I, for one, am a patriot, you goddamned terrorist.

Rumor has it the Army is using the NAM/GFS to try and locate Osama which is part of the problem. It keeps thinking he's 300 miles east of his actual location and buried under 2 feet of snow from a freak norlun.

I'll take the Molson Golden Model over anything NCEP has shaking after these last few weeks.

I hope the trough works out....but I also hope people understand for EMA/SEMA the potential ocean low is a much better opportunity than some snizzle shi* hit or miss trough with the focus well west of us.

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I'd say 2-4 for now, maybe a 3-6 or 4-8 for GC. Eastern areas have a shot of doing better due to possible coastal front interactions. ORH hills may do ok as well. It's possible some slantsticker like Pete may get more than that, but I don't think you can narrow that down. Should be some sick ratios.

It also will depend on that third low. Some models like the euro try to redevelop snow over ern areas, inside of 495, later on Saturday Night and Sunday. If that happens, it could add a little more, but I think we need another run or two in order to be able to determine if this is feasible.

It's possible it could come down good in your backyard for a while as that trough moves east.

Pretty much agree with all the above. If Pete measures with long strands of his hair..it might not be all that accurate.

Final call from me is 3-5 for all..lollis higher..who knows where

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Let's get some other final calls out there..instead of model analysis since we're less than 12 hrs from start time

Less than .35 QPF for most of the western 60% of SNE. .05 to .2" over eastern areas through 42 hours.

More in banding, nobody will have any idea where that sets up until later tonight/Friday.

About a 30% chance this all gets slammed downward in 4-5 hours.

And beyond 42 we should see more snow moving in.

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I will go with 1-3" over eastern areas, mostly from a BOS - PVD - Cape Ann deal points eastward and west and northwest of there about 3-6" widespread, isolated 6"+, epsecially over the eastern slopes of the Berkshires. Right now SW CT could get like 8" out of this trough. I would favor perhaps Fairfield county, CT gets the 8" amounts for SNE, while Portland, ME gets the 6"+ for most of NNE, with exception to the eastern slopes of the whites up in NH and upslode favorable regions of N VT/NH/NW ME. Widespread 3-6" for most of NNE. 1-3" for most of VT.

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Grab your balls and post snowfall amts..not qpf totals

I can't because one person will measure 7" from .35, another 3.5" from .35

I'd think 1/3 2-4 would do it for most everyone aside of those with fantastic "ratios" but I think even asking for totals now is kind of moot as the situation is still fluid and appears to be shifting north with each run.

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