CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 SPC4km wrf is interesting. Almost looks like a squall line going east across NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well, as far as storm #3 is concerned...which most don't care about..it's a little better looking on 18z vs 12z (but still a miss). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 SPC4km wrf is interesting. Almost looks like a squall line going east across NYC. BTV 4km WRF looked similarly impressive.http://www.erh.noaa....tv/html/4kmwrf/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well, as far as storm #3 is concerned...which most don't care about..it's a little better looking on 18z vs 12z (but still a miss). And the trough continues to shift north. With the 18z it develops low 3 soon enough that the Delmarva may get as much snow as those of us under the death band from super trough 2011. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 BTV 4km WRF looked similarly impressive. http://www.erh.noaa....tv/html/4kmwrf/ LOL, I just looked at that. I want to see how that performs in synoptic events. I never used the BTV model...wish BOX had one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 SPC4km wrf is interesting. Almost looks like a squall line going east across NYC. Thundersnow maybe??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 And the trough continues to shift north. With the 18z it develops low 3 soon enough that the Delmarva may get as much snow as those of us under the death band from super trough 2011. 1 They get 0.1 or less and only on the immediate shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Scott RGEM ain't too shabby. Nice little 992 with precip slung a LOT further west than the UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 LOL, I just looked at that. I want to see how that performs in synoptic events. I never used the BTV model...wish BOX had one. Pretty neat page! Can't wait to use it this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Give me a less robust NAO. Chances would improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well, as far as storm #3 is concerned...which most don't care about..it's a little better looking on 18z vs 12z (but still a miss). I'm in the "don't care about it" camp because there's way to much of and E-W-oriented push on it upstairs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_054.shtml That bastard will never get close enough; it may look like it's trending that way, but I think there's no way in Hell it could change so drastically at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 They get 0.1 or less and only on the immediate shore. Really? If that was the QPF forecast for here we'd be looking at a solid 1-3/2-4 type event. 60hr cum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'd say GC looks pretty good as of now. The combo of upper level forcing, srfc trough, and some upslope seems to favor that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm in the "don't care about it" camp because there's way to much of and E-W-oriented push on it upstairs: http://www.nco.ncep....8/fp0_054.shtml That bastard will never get close enough; it may look like it's trending that way, but I think there's no way in Hell it could change so drastically at this range. Unless you look at the non-american guidance like the 18z RGEM which has the entire thing about 400 miles further west or even wnw at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Really? If that was the QPF forecast for here we'd be looking at a solid 1-3/2-4 type event. 60hr cum Sure looks like 0.1 ....unless you count what the clam right on the beach in MD gets that covers 2 sq miles. Unless you mean NC. Not sure that is snow but whatever....and psst...that IS the qpf forecast here....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 so this crap offshore low is gonna destroy the norlun event for most in SNE......great! i think most will be lucky to see a region wide 1-2 never mind kev's fantasy projections. and yes SW CT ..Berk Cty...not withstanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Is this Norlun really getting destroyed by the offshore low or just pushed north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Give me a less robust NAO. Chances would improve. I think the -nao is the only thing allowing this. The PV would probably be well north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'd say GC looks pretty good as of now. The combo of upper level forcing, srfc trough, and some upslope seems to favor that area. So what is your total snowfall forecast for SNE? 2-4 with higher lolis TBD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 so this crap offshore low is gonna destroy the norlun event for most in SNE......great! i think most will be lucky to see a region wide 1-2 never mind kev's fantasy projections. and yes SW CT ..Berk Cty...not withstanding. LOL...what an awful call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That bastard will never get close enough; it may look like it's trending that way, but I think there's no way in Hell it could change so drastically at this range. I'll give it until the 0z runs before I lose all interest. But I guess it's slightly more interesting than tracking some phantom/chameleonesque trough that may or may not drop 1-2" on mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 northern ct will get over 7 inches and in banding more snowfall for late friday into sat. models dont handle these well . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 northern ct will get over 7 inches and in banding more snowfall for late friday into sat. models dont handle these well . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Sure looks like 0.1 ....unless you count what the clam right on the beach in MD gets that covers 2 sq miles. Unless you mean NC. Not sure that is snow but whatever....and psst...that IS the qpf forecast here....lol The norlun is going to die a slow death in the models I "think" if this trend continues with the offshore low tonight. It'll move through so fast only western areas will have anything of consequences. The clam on the beach in EVA is actually forecast to get more than Boston at this point on the GFS, or Worcester. The RGEM would give him quite a bit more, clammy would be happy. The NOGAPS has even jumped on the wagon now...it rotates up and keeps it near EMA for hours. I like the trend, suck NCEP guidance aside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Unless you look at the non-american guidance like the 18z RGEM which has the entire thing about 400 miles further west or even wnw at the same time I, for one, am a patriot, you goddamned terrorist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The GFS still insists on doing this frustrating thing again with the Miller A. When in a pattern.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 LOL...what an awful call sorry forgot about litchfield hills. nice fluff event there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Donny Baseball FTW After having seen the 12z NAM, RGEM, and GFS for the January 7-9, 2011 event, my initial thoughts in terms of snowfall accumulations are: Albany: 6"-12" Allentown: 3"-6" Boston: 2"-4" Caribou: 4"-8" Concord: 4"-8" Danbury: 3"-6" Harrisburg: 1"-3" Hartford: 3"-6" Islip: 2"-4" New York City: 2"-4" Newark" 2"-4" Philadelphia: 1"-3" Pittsfield: 5"-10" Poughkeepsie: 5"-10" Providence: 2"-4" White Plains: 3"-6" Details are still subject to possible large changes in some cases depending on later data concerning mesoscale banding potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Give me a less robust NAO. Chances would improve. AhMane Rebbe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think the -nao is the only thing allowing this. The PV would probably be well north. Yeppers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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