Gwhizkids Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Does ALY even produce one of those maps? I've never seen one from them Not like BOS and OKX's maps. There are some looping type "pick your sensible weather" type maps. They suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Almost every run of every model has its own little twist. Just when you think we may have a handle on the situation there's a new wrinkle that changes everything. Outside of a few people I'm not making any forecasts on this so I can just sit back and enjoy watching it unfold. I still like where I sit for at least 2-3" and the nice thing about the band pivoting through SNE on its way up here is that everyone possibly gets a little bit of fun. Then there will probably the local enhancements from terrain and the OES. Most of the NORLUNs I've experienced almost have a snakelike orientation and movement to their structure so I'm curious to see if we get bands like that or just a regular old pivoting band as the inverted trough shifts northward. Some models try to give a little banding love earlier on for ME and then pivot it westward into C/N NH as well. Then who knows what happens with the 3rd low down by cweat's way. I'm just hoping I get a few inches of snow before it tries to rob me of moisture. It should be fun to watch play out. I've been keeping an eye on the models and current weather, but I'll make myself go crazy trying to pick apart the differences in the models right now. I think a general 2-5" with some local lolli's are the safe bet for now. Sometimes you get those mini circular eddies too...almost like a weak area of low pressure. Yeah I think you're good for that. At the very least, the mid level lows are in a good position for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 So fill me in..which BOX map is correct...and Dendrite... Why not on the WSW lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It had a widespread 0.3" or so for sne, with a little more out by the elbow of the Cape. It actually had a hole over extreme srn ME. How'd the ec ens look? my qpf graphics aren't the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 LOL, our in-house model is going nuts for Essex county. Not a bad way to sneak a laugh in while doing project work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 How'd the ec ens look? my qpf graphics aren't the best. I only can see precip probs. The only set of qof that has any value is 12hr precip >0.1" It had the orh hills to GC as having the best shot..almost 70%. it then shifted up to you and weakened bu gave most of ctrl NH and ME 30-40% by 00z Sunday. It then responded to the new low developing and curled and area of qpf just east of BOS during later Saturday Night and Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 So fill me in..which BOX map is correct...and Dendrite... Why not on the WSW lol i guess the first one is total and the second one is until Saturday evening...it's kind of confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The ensembles aren't going to be the best for this, but just showing you guys what is displays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That is a pretty map from BOX, but won't reflect the chaotic reality of the snow accumulation patterns that actually set up. The one you can say is that they will be right about their nw zones getting the most. Nice I'll take 5 inches and run Just got back after an afternoon on the rd. It was snowing in Avon ,Ct as I came out of the call? instability or hint of where Norlun sets up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What time the the 18Z GFS come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What time the the 18Z GFS come out? In about half an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I could see a scenario where this third low continues the idea of going out to sea like the other two surface lows, or I could see another possibility in which the models trend stronger and further west with this energy and actually allow it to phase with the SPV as it swings to the south of the region. A nice vort max within the overall circulation envelope of the SPV could end up being the catalyst for a major storm development just southeast of ACK sunday morning. Again best scenario would be to slow the SPV down a tad and allow the northern stream energy to wrap more northward then northeastward like the NAM continues to show, although it is getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Sit back. This one will be impossible to decipher until nowcast. Funny that some guidance hinting at another inverted trof from the Miller A next week. I think I've had enough of these... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm not sure what BOX is basing the WSW's on...At any rate looks like it's snowing by dawn in western SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Sit back. This one will be impossible to decipher until nowcast. Funny that some guidance hinting at another inverted trof from the Miller A next week. I think I've had enough of these... It could be worse, Jerry. It could look to retrograde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That felt good.....didn't it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 LOL, our in-house model is going nuts for Essex county. Not a bad way to sneak a laugh in while doing project work. I find it interesting that the model has consistently picked Cape Ann as the bullseye over the last 12hrs or so. Even yesterday there were a number of runs that had Cape Ann as the big winner with a tongue of precip stretching out to MHT. It's wavered on the precip in to NH but been bullish with Cape Ann!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Box never seems to mention storm 3...all about the norlun SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE RATHER COMPLEX STORM CONFIGURATION IS STILL IN PLACE FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING A NORLUN TROUGH TO BECOME ESTABLISHED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE PROBLEM IS THESE TYPES OF TROUGHS ARE NOT TRANSITORY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW WEAKENING FRONTOGENESIS SAT 850 MB AND 925 MB AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO CLOSING OF A LOW PRESSURE AT THESE LEVELS...WHICH WOULD FURTHER DESTROY THE NORLUN TROUGH. SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXISTS TO THE WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH MAY EXTEND JUST EAST OF THE BERKSHIRE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS THIS POTENTIAL WHICH COULD BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Box never seems to mention storm 3...all about the norlun SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE RATHER COMPLEX STORM CONFIGURATION IS STILL IN PLACE FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING A NORLUN TROUGH TO BECOME ESTABLISHED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE PROBLEM IS THESE TYPES OF TROUGHS ARE NOT TRANSITORY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW WEAKENING FRONTOGENESIS SAT 850 MB AND 925 MB AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO CLOSING OF A LOW PRESSURE AT THESE LEVELS...WHICH WOULD FURTHER DESTROY THE NORLUN TROUGH. SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXISTS TO THE WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH MAY EXTEND JUST EAST OF THE BERKSHIRE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS THIS POTENTIAL WHICH COULD BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL. I don't think they updated the near term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm still going to be rather conservative about this whole thing, I just had the chance to look at the 12z models b/c I went to bed at 8:00 AM but I just don't feel confident enough in widespread 4-8'' totals and think totals in that range will be on the isolated side and confined to one or two small areas. The best lift/forcing are only around for a period of 12 hours or so and the models aren't as great looking with the inverted trough as they once were, at least IMO. Looks like LL winds are also forecasted to be a bit stronger than previously modeled which decreases the chances of heavier banding setting up over a certain area. I think the window for heavy snowfall is a relative short one and in order to see widespread moderate snowfall accumulations I think we would need to see some great snowfall ratios to go along with some pretty heavy snowfall rates, 1-2''/HR type stuff. Obviously some locations are going to see enhancement due to upslope but not everyone will have this luxury. Maybe I'm totally wrong here but at this point I'm not really going to make any changes from my previous call, although I am considering upping totals across N. MA to include them in the 1-3'' zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I find it interesting that the model has consistently picked Cape Ann as the bullseye over the last 12hrs or so. Even yesterday there were a number of runs that had Cape Ann as the big winner with a tongue of precip stretching out to MHT. It's wavered on the precip in to NH but been bullish with Cape Ann!! Still some time for the 6-7'' "jackpot" to meander its way over here...at least a nice 3-6'' deal seems to be in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well I think with the Miller A...the digging western/plains trough is gonna catch and get that southern stream feature. If it isn't a low that runs the coast, then you still get an inverted trough. I still bet on the coastal low. Sit back. This one will be impossible to decipher until nowcast. Funny that some guidance hinting at another inverted trof from the Miller A next week. I think I've had enough of these... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Still some time for the 6-7'' "jackpot" to meander its way over here...at least a nice 3-6'' deal seems to be in the cards. Right now i'd settle for 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE RATHER COMPLEX STORM CONFIGURATION IS STILL IN PLACE FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING A NORLUN TROUGH TO BECOME ESTABLISHED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE PROBLEM IS THESE TYPES OF TROUGHS ARE NOT TRANSITORY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW WEAKENING FRONTOGENESIS SAT 850 MB AND 925 MB AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BOTH MODELS ARE ALSO CLOSING OF A LOW PRESSURE AT THESE LEVELS...WHICH WOULD FURTHER DESTROY THE NORLUN TROUGH. SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXISTS TO THE WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH MAY EXTEND JUST EAST OF THE BERKSHIRE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS THIS POTENTIAL WHICH COULD BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL. unless this is outdated...sounds like this is gonna be a bust for most of SNE outside the East slope Sounds like big totals for the catskills S NY ext. SW CT> This part seems pretty well LOCKED IT....i.e it may shift 50 miles but it ain't shiftin 200. and then it sits and sits and then weakens (perhaps rapidly) as it pivots.....then i wonder if another develops off ot the 3'rd low further up in SW maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I love how all of the HUGE CHANGES every run result in the same general 2-4" over 2-4 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This is what BOX has for zfp amounts for all the westernmost Mass zones. ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 16. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. .FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 17. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. 24.1/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Nice I'll take 5 inches and run Just got back after an afternoon on the rd. It was snowing in Avon ,Ct as I came out of the call? instability or hint of where Norlun sets up? Kevin how in the HELL does that show 5" for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I love how all of the HUGE CHANGES every run result in the same general 2-4" over 2-4 years. NO they don't. In fact a lot of people are getting the shaft as these big changes roll through but we're not always talking about your picnic table. Look at the 18z on NAM for instance in Maine..just a wee change. That said there's more hope and change going on here than at an Obama rally 11/08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NO they don't. In fact a lot of people are getting the shaft as these big changes roll through but we're not always talking about your picnic table. Look at the 18z on NAM for instance in Maine..just a wee change. That said there's more hope and change going on here than at an Obama rally 11/08. that should be a red flag ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NO they don't. In fact a lot of people are getting the shaft as these big changes roll through but we're not always talking about your picnic table. Look at the 18z on NAM for instance in Maine..just a wee change. That said there's more hope and change going on here than at an Obama rally 11/08. Nam gives them an inch if lucky unless you're in western areas which few posters are here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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