Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 wow if this is close to true we should get clobbered. Yeah, if we can get that like 30 miles further S and a little more compact we will get something a little more than projected now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It's getting there. Outstanding trend for us. BTW notice the trough snows went poof as the low develops this run? The thing is the timing is such that it starts to wrap up towards us then the main mid level rotates over shutting off the north movement. Given 6 hours ago it had nothing of this sort and neither did any other model it's good news. Long as the 18z doesn't run away from the idea - and I'd like to see it trend closer for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 wow...looks great at 54 hours...then craps out and slides east at 60 lol. That was great, almost like NCEP did it intentionally to all the weenies watching it frame by frame clicking refresh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The ironic thing about all of this model analysis over the last week is that this will probably end up a nowcast event. lol You're probably right. It will be interesting to follow the evolution of the inv trough. They usually like to form and stay in place and not move much. Sometimes the forcing can change or shift their positions..so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Taunton's map is actually very similar to my thoughts but apparently not in eastern areas. Where's the OES??? Largely insubstantial, I'm guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah, if we can get that like 30 miles further S and a little more compact we will get something a little more than projected now. Same problems apply. if it's not quite a bit stronger what we have is weak inflow/etc. The NAM changed so dramatically there's hope for the others to continue trending. Something tripped it to change even with the limited data ta 18z. Something still doesnt seem right. I'd have thought the low would have redeveloped out under the approaching 5h. Until it does nothing to see here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Taunton's map is actually very similar to my thoughts but apparently not in eastern areas. Where's the OES??? That's not necessarily a given either, but something to watch perhaps near us or up by Essex county/PSM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Largely insubstantial, I'm guessing. Yeah. Its not an ideal oes setup...more of a ocean enhancement deal...and in this case that actually favors folks inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Just a curious question about those snow fall maps - Why don't they just show all of the projections within the map? We all know there's snow forecasted for western sections, so why do we have to go to another map to see them? With that being said is there one larger, composite map that shows an entire, larger region - lets say that included New Jersey, and North of Mass.? They have them at weather.gov, though they're kind of hard to use because it only gives you six or 12 hour increments and isn't a very large map that covers all of the U.S. Also different forecast offices submit their forecasts at different times, so it could lead to discontinuities at the borders of CWAs which is why it makes sense to look at the individual regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 They have them at weather.gov, though they're kind of hard to use because it only gives you six or 12 hour increments and isn't a very large map that covers all of the U.S. Also different forecast offices submit their forecasts at different times, so it could lead to discontinuities at the borders of CWAs which is why it makes sense to look at the individual regions. Makes sense. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That's not necessarily a given either, but something to watch perhaps near us or up by Essex county/PSM. what happened to the low heights ....E'rly flow deep penetration of OES train of thought. is that losing steam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 is the norlun responsible for most of the QPF over catskills SE NY SW CT E SLope BERKs..? assuming so do we have any good analogs where norluns really blasted them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 is the norlun responsible for most of the QPF over catskills SE NY SW CT E SLope BERKs..? assuming so do we have any good analogs where norluns really blasted them? i'm going to go with a yes on the first part... however, if that low takes over...there will be no NORLUN... (i think) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You're probably right. It will be interesting to follow the evolution of the inv trough. They usually like to form and stay in place and not move much. Sometimes the forcing can change or shift their positions..so who knows. Almost every run of every model has its own little twist. Just when you think we may have a handle on the situation there's a new wrinkle that changes everything. Outside of a few people I'm not making any forecasts on this so I can just sit back and enjoy watching it unfold. I still like where I sit for at least 2-3" and the nice thing about the band pivoting through SNE on its way up here is that everyone possibly gets a little bit of fun. Then there will probably the local enhancements from terrain and the OES. Most of the NORLUNs I've experienced almost have a snakelike orientation and movement to their structure so I'm curious to see if we get bands like that or just a regular old pivoting band as the inverted trough shifts northward. Some models try to give a little banding love earlier on for ME and then pivot it westward into C/N NH as well. Then who knows what happens with the 3rd low down by cweat's way. I'm just hoping I get a few inches of snow before it tries to rob me of moisture. It should be fun to watch play out. I've been keeping an eye on the models and current weather, but I'll make myself go crazy trying to pick apart the differences in the models right now. I think a general 2-5" with some local lolli's are the safe bet for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 going to fishkill NY sat morn what to expect ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 what happened to the low heights ....E'rly flow deep penetration of OES train of thought. is that losing steam Low heights?? Well there may be some enhancement over the central hills with erly flow in the lower level of the atmosphere, and the other area is perhaps near any coastal front type thing. Some models hint at this over ne mass and up through PSM and sw ME, but honestly...it's more like these areas are to "watch". Nothing is really a lock in NORLUNs. It may happen, but it very well may be a minor thing. The NAM tries to hint at these, but keeps most of the action along the main inv trough. Now, we have the messenger low, that might screw everything up, or perhaps give some an added bonus. It's wise just to expect a light snowfall over most areas and keep an eye on the potential "hotspots," that people have been mentioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Almost every run of every model has its own little twist. Just when you think we may have a handle on the situation there's a new wrinkle that changes everything. Outside of a few people I'm not making any forecasts on this so I can just sit back and enjoy watching it unfold. I still like where I sit for at least 2-3" and the nice thing about the band pivoting through SNE on its way up here is that everyone possibly gets a little bit of fun. Then there will probably the local enhancements from terrain and the OES. Most of the NORLUNs I've experienced almost have a snakelike orientation and movement to their structure so I'm curious to see if we get bands like that or just a regular old pivoting band as the inverted trough shifts northward. Some models try to give a little banding love earlier on for ME and then pivot it westward into C/N NH as well. Then who knows what happens with the 3rd low down by cweat's way. I'm just hoping I get a few inches of snow before it tries to rob me of moisture. It should be fun to watch play out. I've been keeping an eye on the models and current weather, but I'll make myself go crazy trying to pick apart the differences in the models right now. I think a general 2-5" with some local lolli's are the safe bet for now. I think you can scrap the NAM beyond the basic trend towards the third system. IF the GFS holds serve I think the norlun dies a faster death quite possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks pretty good there, but by Saturday morning it's all over and north of them.... going to fishkill NY sat morn what to expect ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
met_fan Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Makes sense. Thanks. Does ALY even produce one of those maps? I've never seen one from them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Low heights?? Well there may be some enhancement over the central hills with erly flow in the lower level of the atmosphere, and the other area is perhaps near any coastal front type thing. Some models hint at this over ne mass and up through PSM and sw ME, but honestly...it's more like these areas are to "watch". Nothing is really a lock in NORLUNs. It may happen, but it very well may be a minor thing. The NAM tries to hint at these, but keeps most of the action along the main inv trough. Now, we have the messenger low, that might screw everything up, or perhaps give some an added bonus. It's wise just to expect a light snowfall over most areas and keep an eye on the potential "hotspots," that people have been mentioning. mis-type i meant low thickness values. we knew about the CF thing but i remember you saying it would penetrate further inland. i guess you mean the ORH hills enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The 18z NAM is so close to the real deal, however it still doesn't show this energy getting caught up in the H5 low. Too close to call right now, the simulated radar showed the echoes explode as it got to our latitude, problem is that the low starts up too slow and it too far to the southeast, we have about 48 hours of trending to do before this one is in the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The 18z NAM is so close to the real deal, however it still doesn't show this energy getting caught up in the H5 low. Too close to call right now, the simulated radar showed the echoes explode as it got to our latitude, problem is that the low starts up too slow and it too far to the southeast, we have about 48 hours of trending to do before this one is in the books. I, for one, am more content with a bit of snizzle than a hand full of tightly-grasped straws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Low heights?? Well there may be some enhancement over the central hills with erly flow in the lower level of the atmosphere, and the other area is perhaps near any coastal front type thing. Some models hint at this over ne mass and up through PSM and sw ME, but honestly...it's more like these areas are to "watch". Nothing is really a lock in NORLUNs. It may happen, but it very well may be a minor thing. The NAM tries to hint at these, but keeps most of the action along the main inv trough. Now, we have the messenger low, that might screw everything up, or perhaps give some an added bonus. It's wise just to expect a light snowfall over most areas and keep an eye on the potential "hotspots," that people have been mentioning. Hopefully that offshore low doesn't steal the deal. Don't think it will matter at this point because if it does gain some steam it's probably after the inverted trough has done its thing. How did the ec qpf look on your graphics? Still have the general widespread look? Sometimes the resolution of mine doesn't do any favors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The 18z NAM is so close to the real deal, however it still doesn't show this energy getting caught up in the H5 low. Too close to call right now, the simulated radar showed the echoes explode as it got to our latitude, problem is that the low starts up too slow and it too far to the southeast, we have about 48 hours of trending to do before this one is in the books. wouldn't everyone just crap their pants if this trend caught fire tonite/tommorrow and at first initialization error were blamed (they prob. would tonite b/c it would be nearly unbelievable) and 78 analog started flashing in the back of weenies mind's and we had 2 back 2 back storms do the same thing (big model busts 48 hours out). only this time the deformation band would be further east. there would be absolute total pandamonium. too bad it won't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 And the map has changed already. edit: I noticed the time frame ends 7 PM SATURDAY on this one as opposed to the prior posted one ending 7 PM SUNDAY. Nice I'll take 5 inches and run Just got back after an afternoon on the rd. It was snowing in Avon ,Ct as I came out of the call? instability or hint of where Norlun sets up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 mis-type i meant low thickness values. we knew about the CF thing but i remember you saying it would penetrate further inland. i guess you mean the ORH hills enhancement. Well it's possible you could have bands or at least a shield moving inland, with a little boost over the ORH Hills. I'm just going off scenarios at the top of my head, where I can remember what setups like this have done. Don't forget this will be a fluff job with very low liquid equivalents too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Just posted. And I like this one even better. WTF??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Hopefully that offshore low doesn't steal the deal. Don't think it will matter at this point because if it does gain some steam it's probably after the inverted trough has done its thing. How did the ec qpf look on your graphics? Still have the general widespread look? Sometimes the resolution of mine doesn't do any favors. It had a widespread 0.3" or so for sne, with a little more out by the elbow of the Cape. It actually had a hole over extreme srn ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 blizz that looks like 3.5 - 4 on the map for you. not that bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The ironic thing about all of this model analysis over the last week is that this will probably end up a nowcast event. lol Yes it will be funny. I see GYX is going essentially 4-8 for us with 2 periods of 1-3 and then 2 periods of light snow accum. I will say that I have learned something the last couple of days...i.e. re H& and H5 and H850 lows, so its been worth it for me....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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