Quincy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think putting out watches due to mesoscale snows is a bit bullish, after all this is not a general 4-8 6-12 synoptic snow event, and this is New England. The morning of the 27th, after 16 inches of snow, and 60 pmh wind gusts I was driving on I95 and the highway was totally clear as well as main roads, sure side roads had some snow, but we should all be able to navigate in snow living in sne. I would imagine issuing a waa with sws pinpointing regions that were being affected by mesoscale banding would suffice. when it comes to the general public, I think they did the right thing to bring awareness. Remember that a few runs of the NAM showed the potential for 10-15"+ for some areas... do I think that happens? no, but I think some areas will definitely see warning criteria snow out of this... most watches will switch to advisories, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobBensalemSnow Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 so many model huggers :-) i agree if you look at the surface things look ripe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 well not that i know much but i was thinking it was a pipe dream . but talks of very large potential..... demand..... curiosity for detailed opinions. yup, how this whole scenario plays out has the potential to exciting...in the very least, i find it highly interesting that here we are at Thursday and we are having a hard time figuring out what will be happening 24hrs from now... aound the area where I live, at this point, i'm not expecting anything over 2inches...I always hold out hope for that "surprise" ...but after reading everything, and listen to everyone throw around ideas, well I guess it's more of a wait and see kind of game... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 when it comes to the general public, I think they did the right thing to bring awareness. Remember that a few runs of the NAM showed the potential for 10-15"+ for some areas... do I think that happens? no, but I think some areas will definitely see warning criteria snow out of this... most watches will switch to advisories, IMO. I agree about advisories, I think okx will issue wwa and then pinpoint mesoscale banding with now time sws's. tough call nmm nails the city arw nails ffld cty 5 10 15 mile wide bands of snow, almost les like stuff, I could get an inch while kbocsh in stratford gets 9, crazy stuff, in the end I think the tendency for bigger snows will be across the higher elevations of se ny litchfield cty ct then in mass on the north shore west into orh area and ne into se nh and maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 what are you saying... a bomb is back on the table? after the inv. trough stuff fri pm and overnite into erly sat am. That deserves a couple more. :weenie: great explanation. thx rombowski can you believe i didn't get more votes for the WOTY...i'll be whining about that for months. that quote should guarantee you WOTY next year! and you almost got my last name right...close but no cigar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The NMM gives most of CT virtually nothing through 48 hours..that's a red flag if you ask me. It nailed the last event's mesoscale banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 For what it's worth, my snow icon's been on for a couple hours now and the sky is becoming a "snow sky" as I type. 25.3/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 yup, how this whole scenario plays out has the potential to exciting...in the very least, i find it highly interesting that here we are at Thursday and we are having a hard time figuring out what will be happening 24hrs from now... aound the area where I live, at this point, i'm not expecting anything over 2inches...I always hold out hope for that "surprise" ...but after reading everything, and listen to everyone throw around ideas, well I guess it's more of a wait and see kind of game... ya i would say that neither you or i have high potential in this compared with others out in W Ct over to G'sC or SW maine.....or even SE mass with hopes of the third horseman of the apocalypse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The 3rd low is the real deal. That's the focus now ding ding ding. The fact that the EURO is somewhat on board is very good..at least for additional model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 yup, how this whole scenario plays out has the potential to exciting...in the very least, i find it highly interesting that here we are at Thursday and we are having a hard time figuring out what will be happening 24hrs from now... aound the area where I live, at this point, i'm not expecting anything over 2inches...I always hold out hope for that "surprise" ...but after reading everything, and listen to everyone throw around ideas, well I guess it's more of a wait and see kind of game... Personally I'm really surprised that there isn't more interest but the focus on the trough and the subequent gradual deflation of said trough probably has some head scratching going on. All models save the NAM/RGEM develop another impressive slug of moisture offshore HAT at 48hrs that does get slung up near/over eastern sections. Even the 12z GFS has shifted the main PV somewhat west vs 0z allowing more time for all of this to evolve. That gives the energy on the coast more room to ride up before it gets blasted by what is coming down which in itself is impressive. I think the trend to slow the PV may be real which will in turn allow the s/w on the carolinas more time. get it a little further north versus east and it may well end up becoming entrained in the overall circulation. Who knows, this is one of those deals though that we should see a huge shift in the models in that direction now (18z) if it's valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 ding ding ding. The fact that the EURO is somewhat on board is very good..at least for additional model watching. It's more than somewhat...it's now just a question of timing/strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The NMM gives most of CT virtually nothing through 48 hours..that's a red flag if you ask me. It nailed the last event's mesoscale banding. do you have a link to this model (been looking) i've been interested in it since it was pimped by mets in the NYC thread yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It's more than somewhat...it's now just a question of timing/strength. Well it's somewhat there with regards to what we want to see to get an appreciable snowfall out of this. By appreciable I mean 4-6"+. Has anyone posted any euro qpf totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wow a new low develops just east of the Cape after hr 60. The euro 700vv/rh try to bring this into ern mass, but it does get into the Cape. This intrigues me a lot, seeing the evolution of the northern stream energy is key. Will await 00z run cycle before jumping onboard with this potential low, but the setup appears ripe. Will have more later on. Yes. Runs a little 992 closed center just outside the BM Sunday wee hours....nails SE MA/CC Sunday morning. Quite the interesting low and energy galore on the models. Very close to becoming something of more importance, especially if it took a more NNErly track allowing more explosive deepening to occur. Right now it is a toss up, should be interesting to see the 00z suite. Nice little comma head clips ern areas between hr 66-72. I hope this comes for us, because I am leaving for San Antonio, TX on Tuesday, a day in between two potential storms. I believe the third low has a chance, but the timing and strength are still uncertain. I really dislike relying on an inverted trough giving us heavy snows, it almost never works out for those of us in SE MA, especially the Cape and Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think I'm staying on my forecast path from last night regarding snowfall. 6-10" JFK and surrounding area's related to inverted trof. ORH CEF 2-5". HFD FIT ASH PWM 4-8". BOS PYM RAY 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 do you have a link to this model (been looking) i've been interested in it since it was pimped by mets in the NYC thread yesterday. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/model_l.shtml every other model has most of CT getting a solid 2-4"...can't say I'm terribly concerned over this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Personally I'm really surprised that there isn't more interest but the focus on the trough and the subequent gradual deflation of said trough probably has some head scratching going on. All models save the NAM/RGEM develop another impressive slug of moisture offshore HAT at 48hrs that does get slung up near/over eastern sections. Even the 12z GFS has shifted the main PV somewhat west vs 0z allowing more time for all of this to evolve. That gives the energy on the coast more room to ride up before it gets blasted by what is coming down which in itself is impressive. I think the trend to slow the PV may be real which will in turn allow the s/w on the carolinas more time. get it a little further north versus east and it may well end up becoming entrained in the overall circulation. Who knows, this is one of those deals though that we should see a huge shift in the models in that direction now (18z) if it's valid. it's like Christmas all over again...there are two presents under the tree with your name on it...A big box, and a tiny box...now you spend all your time focusing on the big box, and trying to figure out what's in it, you poke, you shake it...you stare at in longingly with child like wonderment...and you wait and wait and wait for Christmas morning to come so you can tear into that big box...completely ignoring the fact you also have another present under the tree... so you wait and wait and wait until your head is just about to explode, and finally it's Christmas...you make a mad dash for the tree and tear that huge box to shreds to get your hands on that magnificent prize you have been drooling over for so long.... only to find that, after the shiny paper gets ripped off and you tear the flaps off the box, a fluffy cow-pattern bathrobe mockingly stares back at you, secretly laughing as your heart is crushed and your excitement crumples to the floor... but, as you quickly try to wipe back tears of disappointment, your blurry eyes catch sight of that tiny box still left under the tree, oh well, you think to yourself, at least I still have one more present to open...reluctantly your tired, disappointed body bends down and picks up the tiny present in plain wrapping paper...your clumsy fingers fumble with the small simpleness...finally you unenthusiastically open the box...and then WHAMMO! 2 CT DIAMOND EARRINGS!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The 3rd low is the real deal. That's the focus now The real deal for what, though. Or, more pointedly: for whom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well it's somewhat there with regards to what we want to see to get an appreciable snowfall out of this. By appreciable I mean 4-6"+. Has anyone posted any euro qpf totals? Really only in regards to the trough which is still the focus for most. Looking at it I'm going to guess it's a quick 2-4/3-6" but it's tough to say. The NAM has been terrible outside of 42-48 hours with s/w features which is why it keeps picking up this idea and dropping it with each s/w. That said, this may be the run it picks it back up and if so we may see one of those deals where the solution is a lot more extreme as it slams the other way and people are saying "it's an off hour run etc etc." All that said and the reason it's just entertainment for right now? The 12z 6h NAM at 500mb is probably much better with that feature than the 12z GFS which seems to be too fast and the NAM seemed to do a better job south of the Lakes. How much that all plays a part who knows. In the infamous "model error" storm the differences at 6h were much less dramatic than the differences already obvious between the 6h 12z GFS and the 18z UA. The GFS was a miss with that 3rd system too although it gets close so it may not be a bad deal that the NAM is doing okay. The NAM just craps itself all the time outside of 42-48 in this fast flow and it may only be that it did exhibit that bias beyond 36 and was better finally in tight. We'll see. We need the 18z to really trend this way for me to believe it's the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Scooter Jr (Mess) Oh some of us have been watching the Delmarva very closely, more importantly there seems to be a consensus of 5 h hanging back, consolidating then arcing south of us. As close as we are to some WAA snows it is still in the air if we can capture a Nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 it's like Christmas all over again...there are two presents under the tree with your name on it...A big box, and a tiny box...now you spend all your time focusing on the big box, and trying to figure out what's in it, you poke, you shake it...you stare at in longingly with child like wonderment...and you wait and wait and wait for Christmas morning to come so you can tear into that big box...completely ignoring the fact you also have another present under the tree... so you wait and wait and wait until your head is just about to explode, and finally it's Christmas...you make a mad dash for the tree and tear that huge box to shreds to get your hands on that magnificent prize you have been drooling over for so long.... only to find that, after the shiny paper gets ripped off and you tear the flaps off the box, a fluffy cow-pattern bathrobe mockingly stares back at you, secretly laughing as your heart is crushed your excitement crumples to the floor... but, as you quickly try to wipe back tears of disappointment, your blurry eyes catch sight of that tiny box still left under the tree, oh well, you think to yourself, at least I still have one more present to open...reluctantly your tired, disappointed body bends down and picks up the tiny present in plain wrapping paper...your clumsy fingers fumble with the small simpleness...finally you unenthusiastically open the box...and then WHAMMO! 2 CT DIAMOND EARRINGS!!!! Thats a good present? , how about keys to a fishing boat, atv, car, , earrings? Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Thats a good present? , how about keys to a fishing boat, atv, car, , earrings? Seriously? dude, this is my fantasy... you may, however, substitute your fantasy in place of the diamond earrings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 it's like Christmas all over again...there are two presents under the tree with your name on it...A big box, and a tiny box...now you spend all your time focusing on the big box, and trying to figure out what's in it, you poke, you shake it...you stare at in longingly with child like wonderment...and you wait and wait and wait for Christmas morning to come so you can tear into that big box...completely ignoring the fact you also have another present under the tree... so you wait and wait and wait until your head is just about to explode, and finally it's Christmas...you make a mad dash for the tree and tear that huge box to shreds to get your hands on that magnificent prize you have been drooling over for so long.... only to find that, after the shiny paper gets ripped off and you tear the flaps off the box, a fluffy cow-pattern bathrobe mockingly stares back at you, secretly laughing as your heart is crushed and your excitement crumples to the floor... but, as you quickly try to wipe back tears of disappointment, your blurry eyes catch sight of that tiny box still left under the tree, oh well, you think to yourself, at least I still have one more present to open...reluctantly your tired, disappointed body bends down and picks up the tiny present in plain wrapping paper...your clumsy fingers fumble with the small simpleness...finally you unenthusiastically open the box...and then WHAMMO! 2 CT DIAMOND EARRINGS!!!! you know how I know you're gay (or female I suppose)? in any event...I doubt that 'tiny present' in this case is going to amount to anything of significance outside of CC/SE-MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It is quite possible that this third low makes or breaks our big storm possibilities as we are still 48-72 hours out so anything can still happen and trends could go either way. This is really the first cycle that most models are showing this third low, I mean the american models saw this possibility first before the 12z cycle, but regardless models are now picking this up. If the SPV can pick up the trailing shortwave than all bets are off and we get our blizzard, however just because one suite trends towards this idea, we need more model proof and consistency before we say with any certainty that this is a good second option, the first option of course being that it heads out to sea with little if any fanfare to go along with it, again this is the first option we need to really consider. Best region in SNE for the heaviest snows from the inverted trough is from NE MA/SNH/SE ME. Probably a strip of 6-12" of snow. General 1-3" for most, and some localized areas of eastern MA could see 4", but most of this heavier snows could be reserved for SW CT as they get in the initial more intense instability burst. Still a little soon for a snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep....2/model_l.shtml every other model has most of CT getting a solid 2-4"...can't say I'm terribly concerned over this. the NMM is all over the place, sometimes good, sometimes terrible. given the syntopic setup, that forecast makes almost zero sense across CT. every single model shows that band of snow pinwheeling through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The real deal for what, though. Or, more pointedly: for whom? Hi Zeus...again I'm excited but want to see another run and mainly the 18z stop ejecting that s/w like the 12z NAM. because we've been here twice before albeit with less model support each time but they were phantoms. I'd feel better if it didn't look like the NAM was doing better for once through 6h but that may actually be irrelevant as we're talking about the ejection of the s/w later. We don't have a clear trend, models are slowing that feature but really have only distinguished it well in the last 12 hours and we've had two false starts on earlier s/ws in the models. I really want to see the 18z snap in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Thats a good present? , how about keys to a fishing boat, atv, car, , earrings? Seriously? fine how bout this and then WHAMMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 you know how I know you're gay (or female I suppose)? in any event...I doubt that 'tiny present' in this case is going to amount to anything of significance outside of CC/SE-MA. meso scale models are looking very nice for SE facing catskills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 you know how I know you're gay (or female I suppose)? in any event...I doubt that 'tiny present' in this case is going to amount to anything of significance outside of CC/SE-MA. Bingo! (where have you been?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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