ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 WSW extended for most of CT including Kev lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Interesting runs this morning. MM5/UK/CMC in camp 1 and NAM and to a lesser extent GFS in another. Jer, can you post the Crazy Uncle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 WSW extended for most of CT including Kev lol Monstrous bust potential. Almost all guidance has a huge hole over N central/eastern CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Jer, can you post the Crazy Uncle? GGEM/GFS/UK are all fairly similar, they develop a 3rd system that makes a run at us. That's what I'd be watching, but then again troughs aren't my thing. Everyone's busy staring at the trough.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 WSW extended for most of CT including Kev lol Oh great. I'm going to have to hear his "AWT" garbage. lolA watch doesn't totally surprise me, but we'll see if it ends up a warning or an prolonged advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Oh great. I'm going to have to hear his "AWT" garbage. lol A watch doesn't totally surprise me, but we'll see if it ends up a warning or an prolonged advisory. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS and UK are similar, they both try to nail us with the 3rd system IMO. That's the great white hope....this run I'm putting all my eggs in that 3rd system. I'm curious to see if the EURO picks this up. As far as the inverted trough/norlun is concerned...I'm not expecting more than an inch down here, to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm putting all my eggs in that 3rd system. I'm curious to see if the EURO picks this up. As far as the inverted trough/norlun is concerned...I'm not expecting more than an inch down here, to be honest. Same here. Trough be damned. It's a high res vs low res deal, RGEM/NAM say no go on the 3d amigo. I think the Euro may pick it up. UK is very close to a good hit from it. Both would hit north of Boston pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Same here. Trough be damned. It's a high res vs low res deal, RGEM/NAM say no go on the 3d amigo. I think the Euro may pick it up. UK is very close to a good hit from it. Both would hit north of Boston pretty hard. Did i miss something,a 3rd system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Did i miss something,a 3rd system? Some version of a low off the Carolinas, triggered by the last spike of energy just in advance of the PV. The high res short rangers shoot that energy out, the UK/GGEM/GFS to one extent or another try to bend it up in advance. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Some version of a low off the Carolinas, triggered by the last spike of energy just in advance of the PV. The high res short rangers shoot that energy out, the UK/GGEM/GFS to one extent or another try to bend it up in advance. Something to watch. Thanks...so much going on its hard to keep track lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The third system looks interesting on the UKMET and CMC, although I have no faith in these models unless they are part of a consensus. Right now the ridging out west is just too weak to get the third system reved up as it comes close to the region. 12z CMC is closest with this low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Jer, can you post the Crazy Uncle? H7 RH above....here's the sfc...remember...we're missing the in between 6 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Nice modeling trends today. The watch in CT will be interesting to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Thanks for the heads up. It will depend upon whether I can find a divorce record in POU. If not then I have to try Carmel courthouse. I like going there...nice little village and very quiet relaxed county courthouse. Contract from the bustling urban places to the south.... Just watch out for that stretch of 84 between the Taconic and exit 18 where you'll be getting off. Dramatic jump in elevation and when you get to the top it's generally open to the N/NW and the wind whips around pretty good. The hill just east of the Tac is steep enough that the cars with marginal tires and drivers with marginal skills make a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Donnie Baseball AWT Posted 49 minutes ago After having seen the 12z NAM, RGEM, and GFS for the January 7-9, 2011 event, my initial thoughts in terms of snowfall accumulations are: Albany: 6"-12" Allentown: 3"-6" Boston: 2"-4" Caribou: 4"-8" Concord: 4"-8" Danbury: 3"-6" Harrisburg: 1"-3" Hartford: 3"-6" Islip: 2"-4" New York City: 2"-4" Newark" 2"-4" Philadelphia: 1"-3" Pittsfield: 5"-10" Poughkeepsie: 5"-10" Providence: 2"-4" White Plains: 3"-6" Details are still subject to possible large changes in some cases depending on later data concerning mesoscale banding potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Go Jayhawk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Oh great. I'm going to have to hear his "AWT" garbage. lol A watch doesn't totally surprise me, but we'll see if it ends up a warning or an prolonged advisory. The one thing this will have, is good ratios. That could really boost totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Not just CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Go Jayhawk! Go Westerly RI jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I've detached from the pure weenieism and am enjoying how difficult this is. Hopefully a good learning experience but frankly the same setup would play out different enough that we'd never figure it out until the snow starts or has been going for awhile. Good luck to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Go Westerly RI jackpot! How far are you from that blob? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Thanks...so much going on its hard to keep track lol Keep in mind invidual models have tried to key on either the 1st or 2nd spoke of energy. GFS has hinted at #3 for a day, first time we have multiple models on it. Kind of odd it's all lower res stuff, EC will be interesting could be a blip, if its not I'd say we have someone good to track aside of the "trough" which is just going to piss people off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think it's funny how BOX and ALY are upping the ante wiht the watches while OKX is using the "less likely" statement in their update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Go Jayhawk! Rock chalk! Again, I'm liking the modeling today. Unfortunately, there's lots of upheaval and this may move right on up the coast in actuality. I still think it's coming down to watching radar over the weekend to figure out who scores and who hangs their heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The one thing this will have, is good ratios. That could really boost totals. Yeah...whoever gets the bands will be in good lift and good snow growth by primarily deposition. My debate with him was actually on whether all of SNE should get WSWs. I actually agree with it for the western zones. Maybe more zones will get a WSW later as it may be a time period thing. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think the models are beginning to depict the H5 low as a stronger more bundled area of energy rather than a stretched out mess it was in yesterday's model runs. Right now it appears that if this energy can intensify a tad like the 12z NAM showed a moves to the south of the region we could get a nice snowstorm going from the third surface low, however lack of amplified ridging out west will like to downplay this potential and most likely it will move out to sea too far east to impact anyone. Trough snows are not going to favor SE MA and the CC and Islands. My best chance at snow is with the third system, and my chances are bleak with that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Donnie Baseball AWT Posted 49 minutes ago After having seen the 12z NAM, RGEM, and GFS for the January 7-9, 2011 event, my initial thoughts in terms of snowfall accumulations are: Albany: 6"-12" Allentown: 3"-6" Boston: 2"-4" Caribou: 4"-8" Concord: 4"-8" Danbury: 3"-6" Harrisburg: 1"-3" Hartford: 3"-6" Islip: 2"-4" New York City: 2"-4" Newark" 2"-4" Philadelphia: 1"-3" Pittsfield: 5"-10" Poughkeepsie: 5"-10" Providence: 2"-4" White Plains: 3"-6" Details are still subject to possible large changes in some cases depending on later data concerning mesoscale banding potential. Portland, ME needs to make the list! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 How far are you from that blob? Work like five miles, home like 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 If this was the old days of the NGM, it probably would have had just the one area of qpf broad brushed where the main inverted trough sets up and little depicted elsewhere. None of the multtude of qpf maxes that the models have been depicting. Life was simpler then and less angst ridden. LOL But of course I don't want to go back in time....just saying. I've detached from the pure weenieism and am enjoying how difficult this is. Hopefully a good learning experience but frankly the same setup would play out different enough that we'd never figure it out until the snow starts or has been going for awhile. Good luck to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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