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Inverted Trough/ Redeveloper Disco Jan 7-9


Baroclinic Zone

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My main concern of the H5 track to the south of the region is the lack of appreciable PNA ridging in this time frame. THe PNA ridging that was present is simply smacked down by another pacific jet energetic disturbance riding through the fast flow. Other than that aspect I think the track is better for S NH and SE ME and NE MA. South Coast of CT, RI and MA will be spared the worst of the snows from the trough.

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My main concern of the H5 track to the south of the region is the lack of appreciable PNA ridging in this time frame. THe PNA ridging that was present is simply smacked down by another pacific jet energetic disturbance riding through the fast flow. Other than that aspect I think the track is better for S NH and SE ME and NE MA. South Coast of CT, RI and MA will be spared the worst of the snows from the trough.

Spared?

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okx in there 1046 am discussion noted no updates but recent modeling suggests no warning snow criteria will be met.

Good thought. Here's their entire AFD

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --WILL NOT BE MAKING UPDATES THIS MORNING...BUT BASED ON LATEST

MODEL RUNS...IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING

LEVEL SNOW IS LOWERING.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES

STRENGTHENS A BIT THIS EVENING...SO CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO

THICKEN AND LOWER. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH A STEADIER LIGHT

SNOW POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE

STARVED...THUS LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGHER IMPACT AND MORE CHALLENGING SETUP ON FRIDAY...WITH AN

ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT EXPECTED. THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE

CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING

OVER THE DELMARVA. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH THE OCEANIC LOW GOING

TOO FAR EAST FOR A DIRECT HIT. THEY ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT IN

DEVELOPING A NORLUN INSTABILITY TROUGH...WHERE MOISTURE OFF THE

OCEAN IS DRAWN BACK OVER A SLOW MOVING CONVERGENCE BAND.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR NEAR AND JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM WHERE

THIS CONVERGENCE SETS UP...AND UNFORTUNATELY THAT PLACEMENT IS THE

MOST DIFFICULT ELEMENT TO PREDICT.

AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS IN WIDESPREAD...LIGHT SNOW

DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY

MORNING. HEAVIER SNOWBANDS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON

FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS BECOMES

STRONGER. ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO

5 INCHES...WHICH WOULD CONSTITUTE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ADDITIONAL...POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW WOULD BRING THOSE AREAS INTO

WARNING CRITERIA (6 INCHES OR MORE IN 12 HOURS).

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND SNOW AMOUNT...BUT ENOUGH

CONFIDENCE THAT HEAVIER SNOW WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE CWA...A WINTER

STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THIS COULD EITHER BE UPGRADED TO A

WARNING ONCE IT IS EVIDENT WHERE HEAVIER SNOW WILL FALL...OR

CONVERTED INTO AN ADVISORY WHERE LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. IT

IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW COULD BEGIN MID TO LATE

AFTERNOON...AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON RUSH.

FOR NY/NJ/CT MEDIA...IT MUST BE REITERATED THAT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON

PREDICTING WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR. PLEASE HIGHLIGHT

THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THAT A WATCH MEANS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXIST

FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A SUBTLE SHIFT IN

THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL MEAN LARGE DIFFERENCE IN SNOWFALL.

FROM A GUIDANCE PERSPECTIVE...(no longer true with the 12z- my addition) THE NAM IS BY FAR THE MOST ROBUST

WITH 15-20 INCH SNOWFALL FOR CENTRAL LONG ISLAND...NORTHERN NYC AND

LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. ADDING TO THE FORECAST CHALLENGE...THIS MODEL

ALSO HAS A SHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT...WITH 18 INCHES IN THE

BRONX...AND 3 ON STATEN ISLAND!! THE GFS AND EC...AND MOST

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS POINT TO LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW...AND WIDELY

VARYING DISTRIBUTIONS.

TO ADD YET ANOTHER PIECE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES VERY CLOSE

TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SO IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR ENOUGH

ABOVE-FREEZING AIR TO FORCE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN FOR A BIT FRIDAY

NIGHT.

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Good thought. Here's their entire AFD

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --WILL NOT BE MAKING UPDATES THIS MORNING...BUT BASED ON LATEST

MODEL RUNS...IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING

LEVEL SNOW IS LOWERING.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES

STRENGTHENS A BIT THIS EVENING...SO CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO

THICKEN AND LOWER. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH A STEADIER LIGHT

SNOW POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE

STARVED...THUS LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGHER IMPACT AND MORE CHALLENGING SETUP ON FRIDAY...WITH AN

ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT EXPECTED. THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE

CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING

OVER THE DELMARVA. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH THE OCEANIC LOW GOING

TOO FAR EAST FOR A DIRECT HIT. THEY ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT IN

DEVELOPING A NORLUN INSTABILITY TROUGH...WHERE MOISTURE OFF THE

OCEAN IS DRAWN BACK OVER A SLOW MOVING CONVERGENCE BAND.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR NEAR AND JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM WHERE

THIS CONVERGENCE SETS UP...AND UNFORTUNATELY THAT PLACEMENT IS THE

MOST DIFFICULT ELEMENT TO PREDICT.

AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS IN WIDESPREAD...LIGHT SNOW

DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY

MORNING. HEAVIER SNOWBANDS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON

FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS BECOMES

STRONGER. ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO

5 INCHES...WHICH WOULD CONSTITUTE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ADDITIONAL...POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW WOULD BRING THOSE AREAS INTO

WARNING CRITERIA (6 INCHES OR MORE IN 12 HOURS).

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND SNOW AMOUNT...BUT ENOUGH

CONFIDENCE THAT HEAVIER SNOW WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE CWA...A WINTER

STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THIS COULD EITHER BE UPGRADED TO A

WARNING ONCE IT IS EVIDENT WHERE HEAVIER SNOW WILL FALL...OR

CONVERTED INTO AN ADVISORY WHERE LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. IT

IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW COULD BEGIN MID TO LATE

AFTERNOON...AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON RUSH.

FOR NY/NJ/CT MEDIA...IT MUST BE REITERATED THAT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON

PREDICTING WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR. PLEASE HIGHLIGHT

THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THAT A WATCH MEANS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXIST

FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A SUBTLE SHIFT IN

THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL MEAN LARGE DIFFERENCE IN SNOWFALL.

FROM A GUIDANCE PERSPECTIVE...(no longer true with the 12z- my addition) THE NAM IS BY FAR THE MOST ROBUST

WITH 15-20 INCH SNOWFALL FOR CENTRAL LONG ISLAND...NORTHERN NYC AND

LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. ADDING TO THE FORECAST CHALLENGE...THIS MODEL

ALSO HAS A SHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT...WITH 18 INCHES IN THE

BRONX...AND 3 ON STATEN ISLAND!! THE GFS AND EC...AND MOST

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS POINT TO LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW...AND WIDELY

VARYING DISTRIBUTIONS.

TO ADD YET ANOTHER PIECE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES VERY CLOSE

TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SO IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR ENOUGH

ABOVE-FREEZING AIR TO FORCE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN FOR A BIT FRIDAY

NIGHT.

Thats an old discussion..

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JMHO not going to happen in this depiction. It's a broad weak system. It'll change I'm sure but it is what it is.

If it's something like e-ne winds vs north winds over some part of ern mas..maybe ne mass into se NH or sw ME, it won't show up well. I've seen it before with these. Could it not happen..sure, but I'd look out for it. Th MM5 showed this too. You have 516-522 thicknesses with good PVA and moist winds coming off 40F waters.

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I think my area here is one of the most stable now in terms of expectations. Just about every model has the inverted trough over us for a decent time frame. Some stall it near here and some ultimately lift it to north of us, but they all give us a good .5" or more shot of snow. Crazy that such uncertaintly still exists for parts of E. NE, etc.

Good thought. Here's their entire AFD

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --WILL NOT BE MAKING UPDATES THIS MORNING...BUT BASED ON LATEST

MODEL RUNS...IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING

LEVEL SNOW IS LOWERING.

WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES

STRENGTHENS A BIT THIS EVENING...SO CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO

THICKEN AND LOWER. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH A STEADIER LIGHT

SNOW POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE

STARVED...THUS LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

HIGHER IMPACT AND MORE CHALLENGING SETUP ON FRIDAY...WITH AN

ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT EXPECTED. THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE

CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING

OVER THE DELMARVA. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH THE OCEANIC LOW GOING

TOO FAR EAST FOR A DIRECT HIT. THEY ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT IN

DEVELOPING A NORLUN INSTABILITY TROUGH...WHERE MOISTURE OFF THE

OCEAN IS DRAWN BACK OVER A SLOW MOVING CONVERGENCE BAND.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR NEAR AND JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM WHERE

THIS CONVERGENCE SETS UP...AND UNFORTUNATELY THAT PLACEMENT IS THE

MOST DIFFICULT ELEMENT TO PREDICT.

AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS IN WIDESPREAD...LIGHT SNOW

DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY

MORNING. HEAVIER SNOWBANDS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON

FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS BECOMES

STRONGER. ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO

5 INCHES...WHICH WOULD CONSTITUTE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ADDITIONAL...POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW WOULD BRING THOSE AREAS INTO

WARNING CRITERIA (6 INCHES OR MORE IN 12 HOURS).

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND SNOW AMOUNT...BUT ENOUGH

CONFIDENCE THAT HEAVIER SNOW WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE CWA...A WINTER

STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. THIS COULD EITHER BE UPGRADED TO A

WARNING ONCE IT IS EVIDENT WHERE HEAVIER SNOW WILL FALL...OR

CONVERTED INTO AN ADVISORY WHERE LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. IT

IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW COULD BEGIN MID TO LATE

AFTERNOON...AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON RUSH.

FOR NY/NJ/CT MEDIA...IT MUST BE REITERATED THAT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON

PREDICTING WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR. PLEASE HIGHLIGHT

THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THAT A WATCH MEANS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXIST

FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A SUBTLE SHIFT IN

THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL MEAN LARGE DIFFERENCE IN SNOWFALL.

FROM A GUIDANCE PERSPECTIVE...(no longer true with the 12z- my addition) THE NAM IS BY FAR THE MOST ROBUST

WITH 15-20 INCH SNOWFALL FOR CENTRAL LONG ISLAND...NORTHERN NYC AND

LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. ADDING TO THE FORECAST CHALLENGE...THIS MODEL

ALSO HAS A SHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT...WITH 18 INCHES IN THE

BRONX...AND 3 ON STATEN ISLAND!! THE GFS AND EC...AND MOST

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS POINT TO LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW...AND WIDELY

VARYING DISTRIBUTIONS.

TO ADD YET ANOTHER PIECE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES VERY CLOSE

TO EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SO IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR ENOUGH

ABOVE-FREEZING AIR TO FORCE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN FOR A BIT FRIDAY

NIGHT.

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It might not work totally, with this setup. There are a lot of mesoscale things going on in the lower levels, but you can see how it works, when looking at the GFS. The GFS loves Maine.

The SUNY has mesobands galore on its current run. I still think it's out of its time range, but it gives creedence that we have a lot of mesoscale features on the table at the surface.

700fr.33.0000.gif

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If it's something like e-ne winds vs north winds over some part of ern mas..maybe ne mass into se NH or sw ME, it won't show up well. I've seen it before with these. Could it not happen..sure, but I'd look out for it. Th MM5 showed this too. You have 516-522 thicknesses with good PVA and moist winds coming off 40F waters.

And if that inv trough sets up there..it will enhance it more. I'm just referring to small scale processes that may occur before any trough arrival. I still like that area up through se NH and Parts of SW ME...I could extend this to Dendrite and MaineJayhawk too, later on.

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lots still to be sorted out. seems like catskills east slopes and SW CT as well as just N of NYC over to C. LI is primed for alot of fluff perhaps 12 inches (consider ratios) it also looks like SW Maine will get in on the action later saturday.....with alot of fluff there as well.....i think the rest of the area will be 1-2 inches....with 3 or 4 along any small CF that sets up in E coastal Mass . the caveat being this stuff can not be predicted well.

time to make a couple grilled cheese ....a few chips ...big tall glass of milk and decide wether to go to wa wa or stay on the board.

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I think my area here is one of the most stable now in terms of expectations. Just about every model has the inverted trough over us for a decent time frame. Some stall it near here and some ultimately lift it to north of us, but they all give us a good .5" or more shot of snow. Crazy that such uncertaintly still exists for parts of E. NE, etc.

I think its safe to say that areas between us are gonna get smoked.. Slide Mtn will once again come in with some ridiculous amounts..

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I think my area here is one of the most stable now in terms of expectations. Just about every model has the inverted trough over us for a decent time frame. Some stall it near here and some ultimately lift it to north of us, but they all give us a good .5" or more shot of snow. Crazy that such uncertaintly still exists for parts of E. NE, etc.

Agree--congrats!!

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And if that inv trough sets up there..it will enhance it more. I'm just referring to small scale processes that may occur before any trough arrival. I still like that area up through se NH and Parts of SW ME...I could extend this to Dendrite and MaineJayhawk too, later on.

Yeah no real change in thinking thus far. Some lucky sob will be happy I'm guessing come sun am.

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I'm going to the court houses in Kingston, Poughkeepsie and maybe Carmel tomorrow. I don't mind a snowy drive :)

Just watch out for that stretch of 84 between the Taconic and exit 18 where you'll be getting off. Dramatic jump in elevation and when you get to the top it's generally open to the N/NW and the wind whips around pretty good. The hill just east of the Tac is steep enough that the cars with marginal tires and drivers with marginal skills make a mess.

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