CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The gfs stalls the inv trough over srn NH and extreme srn ME, but the PV is digging nicely under sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Moisture explodes offshore...but too little too late. Interesting new twist, the third s/w complex tries to get us but misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The gfs stalls the inv trough over srn NH and extreme srn ME, but the PV is digging nicely under sne. Nice steady snow for CNE and NNE, light but steady plus there will be some meso-scale effects. For the rest of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Messenger and Scott, I would simply state that the trends beyond 48 hours are looking quite amazing right now with that new Hatteras low in the mix. I would even venture to say that it will probably end up much better than currently modeled given the trends at H5, I would say we have major timing issues however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Nice steady snow for CNE and NNE, light but steady plus there will be some meso-scale effects. For the rest of SNE There will be some stuff going on. The GFS won't pick up smaller scale things. It also hints on some sort of weak backside snows possible, as the H5 low moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Whoa OKX...hammering LI with BL T issues and not to mention total qpf issues. Just seems overdone for LI, southern CT and southern NY..Catskills fine. Really going to have to need terrain to get more then 5 inches i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The gfs stalls the inv trough over srn NH and extreme srn ME, but the PV is digging nicely under sne. I'll tell you what..as long as that digs south of SNE it's going to snow. How many times have we seen that over the yrs. get that thing south of us and good things will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Messenger and Scott, I would simply state that the trends beyond 48 hours are looking quite amazing right now with that new Hatteras low in the mix. I would even venture to say that it will probably end up much better than currently modeled given the trends at H5, I would say we have major timing issues however. down below There will be some stuff going on. The GFS won't pick up smaller scale things. It also hints on some sort of weak backside snows possible, as the H5 low moves east. The GFS has been semi-consistent compared to the awful NAM. It's hinted for about a day off a trailing system. Today it finally popped it. The NAM lets that 500mb energy get loose east. Otherwise it's pretty similar. Given the NAM stinkiness, I'm guessing the GFS may be onto something and seeing as it's 48-72 away it's still interesting. The trough snows aren't bad, widespread .1-.4 or .5 and it's falling mainly in a 12-24 hour period so it'll have some impact as modeled. Very curious to see the EC and see what it does with door number 3. Amazing though at different times different models have tried and failed to get a low up this way from HAT or offshore, first with the early energy, then 2nd, now later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Pedestrian event no more no less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 light snow has broken out north of the border well ahead of the ULL. not modeled. my expectation is for a long duration mood snow event, nothing too exciting---no idea how much we will get up here, just going to add it up at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Check this out as storm 3 develops...it's coming it's coming...54 then the 700 slides over and squashes it. Not far off from getting wrapped into the circulation if either the main pv would slow down or it speeds up 6-12 hours. LOL, never ends with this system. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_700_lu_loop.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm liking where I sit with the positioning of the H5/H7/H85 lows and the sfc convergence zone over S NH. Cold E flow aloft and some sfc lift. Looks like ME gets a rejuvenation as some PVA moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yea thanks Hunchie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Scott told me a few weeks ago to look at where the 700 mb low goes and that there is good snow usually just to the north of it. It seems to go across mass and ten hook up a bit of the maine coast. 500 is moving just about on the same track though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm liking where I sit with the positioning of the H5/H7/H85 lows and the sfc convergence zone over S NH. Cold E flow aloft and some sfc lift. Looks like ME gets a rejuvenation as some PVA moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Scott told me a few weeks ago to look at where the 700 mb low goes and that there is good snow usually just to the north of it. It seems to go across mass and ten hook up a bit of the maine coast. 500 is moving just about on the same track though 700mb track is not good for SNE at all beyond the trough snows on the GFS and it's modeled as such. We'd get clobbered if it shifted out to just under LI and the south coast. Will/Kev would have snowmen the size of Frosty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Don't know if it has been said, but the rgem doesnt look terrible out to 48hrs for CT...decent 8-14mm qpf or a shade under .5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 light snow has broken out north of the border well ahead of the ULL. not modeled. my expectation is for a long duration mood snow event, nothing too exciting---no idea how much we will get up here, just going to add it up at the end. Let's just call it "tantric snow". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 also the nam moves the H7 and H5 lows in a similar/identical track to the GFS. That seems a good signal for snh and s me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 700mb track is not good for SNE at all beyond the trough snows on the GFS and it's modeled as such. We'd get clobbered if it shifted out to just under LI and the south coast. Will/Kev would have snowmen the size of Frosty. yes....but I'm 15 miles nw of Concord NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Scott told me a few weeks ago to look at where the 700 mb low goes and that there is good snow usually just to the north of it. It seems to go across mass and ten hook up a bit of the maine coast. 500 is moving just about on the same track though It might not work totally, with this setup. There are a lot of mesoscale things going on in the lower levels, but you can see how it works, when looking at the GFS. The GFS loves Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 yes....but I'm 15 miles nw of Concord NH Yeah but I'm not so I'm hoping the models are pulling a Bill Buckner. Otherwise this is a light snow/snow shower event with a widespread dusting to 2" here, 1-3/3-6 elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It might not work totally, with this setup. There are a lot of mesoscale things going on in the lower levels, but you can see how it works, when looking at the GFS. The GFS loves Maine. Not exactly a stunning inflow though which is probably why QPF isn't all that great all things considering. Broad lows lighter snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 looks like day 6 event on 12z gfs is a miss again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Let's just call it "tantric snow". tantric snow has broken out north of the border well ahead of the ULL. not modeled. my expectation is for a tantra like snow event, nothing too exciting---no idea how much we will get up here, just going to add it up at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 looks like day 6 event on 12z gfs is a miss again! we all know this will change 20 times before we have a final outcome. with the deep trough in the east the storm is likely to come up the coast we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 also the nam moves the H7 and H5 lows in a similar/identical track to the GFS. That seems a good signal for snh and s me It's possible they could do well..just from that fact alone. It's always good to be north of them. 850mb too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I hate to say and I am sure some Mets may disagree -- the NAM is more credible in this situation than this run of the GFS. There are mesoscale concerns as well as discrete stream interactions that are probably not picked up but the grid spacing of the GFS - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Not exactly a stunning inflow though which is probably why QPF isn't all that great all things considering. Broad lows lighter snows. Any little CF will probably set off some pretty good localized snows. You won't need great inflow aloft for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I hate to say and I am sure some Mets may disagree -- the NAM is more credible in this situation than this run of the GFS. There are mesoscale concerns as well as discrete stream interactions that are probably not picked up but the grid spacing of the GFS - I think it's effective ~27 km nowadays..not too bad. NAM is 12 km and the ECMWF effective is 15 km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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