weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This run is awful for eastern MA. Thankfully, it probably will change as many times as there are outputs leading into the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NAM is going to bust badly on this..at least this run what leads you to that conclusion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 whats happening on the run that is causing that? can't look at the model yet Inverted trough...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Once that H7 low swings under us we might get some snow. It's too far west this run and everyone in a sense is screwed vs last night. I honestly wouldn't really even care if I didn't see a flake because I have 0 invested in this; I hope for some decent and snow and expect nothing. My hope resides with next week.....this is just a bunch of crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 So you have no data...okay cool. It's a NORLUN trough which is a notoriously tough forecast... Go hang out with Analog and you guys can have a few beers and discuss how bad the models are. Right no data, and you've been sleeping with your head between two pillows for the last 45 days. Everything has been great with the 12-18 hour forecasts and nothing changes every 6 hours on our supposed most accurate short term models. Another twitchy over-sensitive red tagger who takes any criticism of what is blatantly obvious to most - and what has been repeated by mets far more reputable and experienced than you/any of us, and twists it into an all out assault on all things weathermen. The NAM hasn't held a solution for 6 hours in a month. But I'm sure your data will show otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Seems to imply for eastern SNE, anything decent is delayed till Sat night/Sunday morning. Throwing up my hands... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This run is awful for eastern MA. Thankfully, it probably will change as many times as there are outputs leading into the event. I'm probably not going to bother keeping up with the run-to-run looks on this one given where we're at now. If I see some snow, that's great. If not, I won't really be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Its quite comical reading some of the post in here when models don't snow over certain areas that they should be tossed but when they do its time to lock it in............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 This run is awful for eastern MA. Thankfully, it probably will change as many times as there are outputs leading into the event. Not so sure of that Jerry. I think the SE MA area will be in a general screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm probably not going to bother keeping up with the run-to-run looks on this one given where we're at now. If I see some snow, that's great. If not, I won't really be surprised. Good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm probably not going to bother keeping up with the run-to-run looks on this one given where we're at now. If I see some snow, that's great. If not, I won't really be surprised. Exactly......as soon as you start hearing: 1) retrograde 2) inverted 3) oes Don't expect much and hope to be suprised; I emotionally withdrew once the bomb was no longer a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Kevin is busy, so I took care of it for him... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Its quite comical reading some of the post in here when models don't snow over certain areas that they should be tossed but when they do its time to lock it in............ Good luck with an hour in the jackpot....lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Right no data, and you've been sleeping with your head between two pillows for the last 45 days. Everything has been great with the 12-18 hour forecasts and nothing changes every 6 hours on our supposed most accurate short term models. Another twitchy over-sensitive red tagger who takes any criticism of what is blatantly obvious to most - and what has been repeated by mets far more reputable and experienced than you, and twists it into an all out assault on all things weathermen. lol...you specifically said the models have been awful in the 12 hour range for the past month...more so than anything in the past 5 years...and I asked for specific data. I can't apparently give analysis on the differences between past model runs which it turning into "the models are worse nowadays than in the past" It's absolute crap dude. It's been the theme on this forum for the past year and it's getting real old. I've posted countless verification score diagrams over the past few months and I'm not doing it again. Believe whatever you want. We've had two tough forecasts in the past month...the snowstorm...and a NORLUN. Why are using a NORLUN as a basis for stating the models have been awful? It's a mesoscale event...there are like 5 damn shortwaves on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Kevin is busy, so I took care of it for him... LOL. You screwed the wrong county - Windham. Tolland is in your 2-4" swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Good luck with an hour in the jackpot....lol.... Its true, I looked at last nights runs, They were all different, Won't surprise me if they are again today i still hang my hat on 2-4'/3-5" up here and if there is more great....... Edit: Actually congrats Upstate NY this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Its quite comical reading some of the post in here when models don't snow over certain areas that they should be tossed but when they do its time to lock it in............ All I'm saying is we can't even go 6-12 hours without the major features being shuffled around and it's not just with this inverted trough. Last storm we had "model errors" that turned out to be nothing of the sort. What we had was massive model flip flopping. The earlier storm that gave 10+ down here was all over the map too. I'm not basing NCEP or anyone else and I'm sure they're working it out but hardly a boston tv forecast goes by without someone saying they cannot rely on the models at this stage. Even the EC is jumping around. What I don't get is how we can be seeing such wild (relatively) swings inside of 6-12 hours at 500mb on strength/positioning. Some bad data is getting in I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I love the 12Z NAM, very good for a lot of NH and ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I love the 12Z NAM, very good for a lot of NH and ME. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Hey, I have a far fetched idea to get snow, but why not try having a low approach from the ssw....you never know, maybe that will work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The major problem is the degree of potential phasing between the lead energy and the northern stream energy. previous model runs of the NAM as of yesterday's 12z and 18z, the NAM showed this lead energy stronger and therefore closer to a true phase with the speeding up of the northern jet stream energy. Right now there is a ton of vorticity going into the eastern part of the trough that models are having a difficult time figuring out whether or not to strengthen the surface low quickly enough to impact SNE with the CCB. NAM is about 30 miles too far to the east with the CCB. This will all come down to potential nowcasting of course, but right now it does not look too good. We need the lead energy to become more bundled up and therefore stronger and a little slower so that the northern stream energy can potentially phase with it and intensify the surface low quickly and bring it further to the west. Still a lot of uncertainty with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 another good base map for forecasts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 LOL. You screwed the wrong county - Windham. Tolland is in your 2-4" swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The major problem is the degree of potential phasing between the lead energy and the northern stream energy. previous model runs of the NAM as of yesterday's 12z and 18z, the NAM showed this lead energy stronger and therefore closer to a true phase with the speeding up of the northern jet stream energy. Right now there is a ton of vorticity going into the eastern part of the trough that models are having a difficult time figuring out whether or not to strengthen the surface low quickly enough to impact SNE with the CCB. NAM is about 30 miles too far to the east with the CCB. This will all come down to potential nowcasting of course, but right now it does not look too good. We need the lead energy to become more bundled up and therefore stronger and a little slower so that the northern stream energy can potentially phase with it and intensify the surface low quickly and bring it further to the west. Still a lot of uncertainty with this setup. Thank god you figured it out; maybe PM Messenger about initalizing the models, tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 lol...you specifically said the models have been awful in the 12 hour range for the past month...more so than anything in the past 5 years...and I asked for specific data. I can't apparently give analysis on the differences between past model runs which it turning into "the models are worse nowadays than in the past" It's absolute crap dude. It's been the theme on this forum for the past year and it's getting real old. I've posted countless verification score diagrams over the past few months and I'm not doing it again. Believe whatever you want. We've had two tough forecasts in the past month...the snowstorm...and a NORLUN. Why are using a NORLUN as a basis for stating the models have been awful? It's a mesoscale event...there are like 5 damn shortwaves on the map. If you honestly believe the models are as good in the last month as they were say three years ago we're just going to have to disagree. Sure maybe at 5 days all is peachy, but I'm talking the inability to place features even inside of 24 hours which has dramatic effects on short term forecasting. This is the worth stretch for models in ages and I'm pretty sure everyone is seeing that manifest here and elsewhere by a total lack of confidence in making any type of forecast. Our local crews here aren't saying what would be the norm "we have one model doing this and others doing this" it's "They change every time they're run so we don't know what to do" When the NAM cannot even get close to right a major feature on a 0z cycle something is either wrong with the data or the assimiliation and one has to wonder if it's effecting the other models too. These aren't features coming in off the ocean, these are features squarely within the grid that it cannot feel out and determine strength and speed even 6 hours out. That's never been the case with the NAM/ETA. EDIT your talking norlun, i'm talking the inability to get a 500mb feature right six hours into a forecast. Two different things...you're talking 36-48 down the road, I'm amazed that for the first time I can ever remember it cannot even get a 6h 500mb forecast close to correct. It cannot get a 48 hour forecast right if it cannot even ascertain what heading a s/w is on at init and at what strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Honestly this reminds me of 2/7/03. 1-3 on the forecast that was changed after 6 had fallen. In this case, bust in either direction. Nice memory, Jer! That storm often gets forgotten for the monster that followed afterwards, but it was a nice appetizer to the main course. Hopefully that pattern will fully repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Thanks though! I'll take my 2-4" and run like hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 If you honestly believe the models are as good in the last month as they were say three years ago we're just going to have to disagree. Sure maybe at 5 days all is peachy, but I'm talking the inability to place features even inside of 24 hours which has dramatic effects on short term forecasting. This is the worth stretch for models in ages and I'm pretty sure everyone is seeing that manifest here and elsewhere by a total lack of confidence in making any type of forecast. Our local crews here aren't saying what would be the norm "we have one model doing this and others doing this" it's "They change every time they're run so we don't know what to do" When the NAM cannot even get close to right a major feature on a 0z cycle something is either wrong with the data or the assimiliation and one has to wonder if it's effecting the other models too. These aren't features coming in off the ocean, these are features squarely within the grid that it cannot feel out and determine strength and speed even 6 hours out. That's never been the case with the NAM/ETA. I don't think the models are any worse in general, but rather the degree of blocking we have seen the past 2 seasons have given them a hard time.....that is how I view it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 – as expected, the surface lags behind this very favorable 500mb level trend. The 500mb is now “re”deepening to 504dm in the core, where the previous runs were trying to do the opposite and fill the vortex… That is an indication that there are physics in play for cyclogenesis – cyclogen processes lower heights and that is a positive feedback during development of the low in the lower levels (complicated). Anyway, seeing the heights go from 510dm to ripping open a 504dm hole near CC is a sign that the surface reflection is developing, not weakening, and doing so [probably ] in a favorable spot when all is said and done. Best run yet my friends for compensating those super duper fast flows. This may go down as being purely a function of models having difficulty handling fast flow wave interactions - heh, goes without saying really. That does not mean we should go hog wild and correct this toward a juggernaut, but it certainly isn't hurting the enthusiast private dreams. The intermediate/polar stream wave has been fully puked on-board off the Pacific and all dynamics are squarely in the denser western N/A grids in the morning's ingest. I think it is intriguing that the last 3 cycles of the NAM has closed the gap between it and the core of the closed beast on every run ... however tediusly small those increments have been. It is very close now to actually capturing it and if that does, look out! You go from a purely modeled blase' event to a all out rush to get the blizz notification to the public in short order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.