mattlacroix4 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12Z NAM is running, here we go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Someone is going to beat what alot of folks in sne saw in the storm of the century, last week. Wouldn't take much to beat me... 9.1" would do it. You thinking places like Cape Ann, or Litchfield Cty get the jackpot? At this point, 3" would make me happy. 5" would make me do naked cartwheels with ski boots on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well this is a different solution, I am already snowing here before most of SNE on the Nam....hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 PHX to BOS, 2 PM ET, lands at 7 PM ET. The plane, I believe, comes out here from BOS at 7:40 AM. Do cross-country flights get some sort of priority? It's gotta be tough to make a call 5 hours out, right? Just let them know you are on board. Give your screen name, and they will get the flight through. Level A1A Priority clearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Not really. these are subtle changes...models do not stay completely static...even in 6 hour changes. Northern stream energy is always a real challenge. It appears the main difference was with the PV...which is in western Ontario anyway. Do you know why this is? Is it due to lower numbers of data stations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 A perfect analysis will never happen. It is impossible. They've never been even close to this bad and how did NCEP not see that the 0z NAM had major init errors which caused it to have a much stronger vortmax west of the Lakes? Yeah. You could stop this run...start it again...it would be different. That's how it works. I understand that but in 20 years of following the runs I don't think they have ever been this bad. Only the NGM was prone to this many changes at 12 hours. It's a huge step back from what we had even two years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah. You could stop this run...start it again...it would be different. That's how it works. Yes, quite likely. But this could be said with any numerical model, including the ECMWF. The atmosphere is chaotic, not much we can do about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 They've never been even close to this bad and how did NCEP not see that the 0z NAM had major init errors which caused it to have a much stronger vortmax west of the Lakes? I understand that but in 20 years of following the runs I don't think they have ever been this bad. Only the NGM was prone to this many changes at 12 hours. It's a huge step back from what we had even two years ago. The models aren't getting worse. Even so, extreme blocking coupled with strong ENSO (La NIna this year and El Nino last year) can give the models headaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The NGM is looking good right now. Time to bring it back. Hey, we used to rely on it. They've never been even close to this bad and how did NCEP not see that the 0z NAM had major init errors which caused it to have a much stronger vortmax west of the Lakes? I understand that but in 20 years of following the runs I don't think they have ever been this bad. Only the NGM was prone to this many changes at 12 hours. It's a huge step back from what we had even two years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Just let them know you are on board. Give your screen name, and they will get the flight through. Level A1A Priority clearance. LOL. I'll just whisper to the crew... "I have connections. Don't worry, we'll get in." I was on a BOS to DEN flight back in March that landed in a storm that dumped like 8" in about 5 hours. It was JetBlue, so I was watching TWC and they were talking about how horrible the conditions were. The flight attendants thought we were going to get diverted to Grand Junction and have to take a bus to DEN. But we descended and landed on a snowy runway. Was eerie. That plane was turned around and headed back to BOS and left on time while the rest of the airport was in anarchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well this is a different solution, I am already snowing here before most of SNE on the Nam....hmmm How the hell do you forecast this? Every single run is different.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The models aren't getting worse. Even so, extreme blocking coupled with strong ENSO (La NIna this year and El Nino last year) can give the models headaches. BS, 6 and 12 hour verifications are worse in the last month than they've been at any time in the last 5 years. I don't really care what the "data" shows the total instability in solutions and general terrible flip flops are a clear indication of it. When you have the best and most experienced TV met in Boston basically saying this year models are all over the place and we cannot make a forecast 36-48 hours out.....don't care what the data says not one model can be trusted for significant amounts of time. Blame it on the blocking or whatever else and that may all be very true, but when the NAM can't get the strength and position right of multiple s/w's 6-12 hours out for days on end...that's not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Amen Messenger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 How the hell do you forecast this? Every single run is different.. Models are fine, this is entirely normal. It's always been like this don't you remember? The NAM just sliced QPF by a lot in that NY band, Boston hasn't had anything by 42-45 hours, neither has PVD or most eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 BS, 6 and 12 hour verifications are worse in the last month than they've been at any time in the last 5 years. I don't really care what the "data" shows the total instability in solutions and general terrible flip flops are a clear indication of it. When you have the best and most experienced TV met in Boston basically saying this year models are all over the place and we cannot make a forecast 36-48 hours out.....don't care what the data says not one model can be trusted for significant amounts of time. Blame it on the blocking or whatever else and that may all be very true, but when the NAM can't get the strength and position right of multiple s/w's 6-12 hours out for days on end...that's not good. can you post data to confirm this? I'm a little perplexed at why every single event on this board...people feel the need to have a b**ch session about why or if the models are bad...or NCEP is bad etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like "decent" snows get going here Saturday now? This will get locked in I guess on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Honestly this reminds me of 2/7/03. 1-3 on the forecast that was changed after 6 had fallen. In this case, bust in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The county up here gets rocked on this run.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Once that H7 low swings under us we might get some snow. It's too far west this run and everyone in a sense is screwed vs last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 can you post data to confirm this? I'm a little perplexed at why every single event on this board...people feel the need to have a b**ch session about why or if the models are bad...or NCEP is bad etc... It's not a b**ch session. You want verification go look at the last 24 hours of runs of the NAM and probably just about every run dating back to mid December. Then go compare that to the good years when it would pinpoint a s/w position for up to 24-30 hours. You want more verification look at the forecasts and forecasters who's confidence is so shaken they're afraid to issue forecasts. Two weeks ago we blamed it on bad data when the american models showed a major hit when all others were duds. It's so bad that we don't know what's an error or what's a legitimate trend, and that includes NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 can you post data to confirm this? I'm a little perplexed at why every single event on this board...people feel the need to have a b**ch session about why or if the models are bad...or NCEP is bad etc... In this highly anomolous pattern they are pretty bad it seems. But in some ways isn't that what makes the field fun? For young mets in particular it shows they need to develop their skills by not only looking at model output but by really understanding climo, pattern recognition and teleconnections. While in some ways annoying and even exasperating...in other ways I love it! I love being surprised by the weather and seeing who can step back and sort out what the hell is going on. I like DT but I thought his 1st guess was really bad and just taking the most extreme model solution....to me very little thinking about what would really happen up here. Of course he could be right! If I was going to trust any met right now on this weekend it would probably be an oldtimer like Harvey Leonard who has seen this before and will probably have a good gut call. Enjoy this guys! As the computers get better we might not get periods like this much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Once that H7 low swings under us we might get some snow. It's too far west this run and everyone in a sense is screwed vs last night. It's a wicked band of snow rotating through. The NAM has been horrible but eventually it will get it right. But this is horrific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 How the hell do you forecast this? Every single run is different.. With probabilities, careful wording, and potential impacts. There is no other way around it. Some events carry a much higher amount of variability, and the public needs to realize that. Forecasting has improved so much in the last 30-40 years that the general public expects every forecast to be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NAM is going to bust badly on this..at least this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The county up here gets rocked on this run.......... whats happening on the run that is causing that? can't look at the model yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It's not a b**ch session. You want verification go look at the last 24 hours of runs of the NAM and probably just about every run dating back to mid December. Then go compare that to the good years when it would pinpoint a s/w position for up to 24-30 hours. You want more verification look at the forecasts and forecasters who's confidence is so shaken they're afraid to issue forecasts. Two weeks ago we blamed it on bad data when the american models showed a major hit when all others were duds. It's so bad that we don't know what's an error or what's a legitimate trend, and that includes NCEP. So you have no data...okay cool. It's a NORLUN trough which is a notoriously tough forecast... Go hang out with Analog and you guys can have a few beers and discuss how bad the models are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 In this highly anomolous pattern they are pretty bad it seems. But in some ways isn't that what makes the field fun? For young mets in particular it shows they need to develop their skills by not only looking at model output but by really understanding climo, pattern recognition and teleconnections. While in some ways annoying and even exasperating...in other ways I love it! I love being surprised by the weather and seeing who can step back and sort out what the hell is going on. I like DT but I thought his 1st guess was really bad and just taking the most extreme model solution....to me very little thinking about what would really happen up here. Of course he could be right! If I was going to trust any met right now on this weekend it would probably be an oldtimer like Harvey Leonard who has seen this before and will probably have a good gut call. Enjoy this guys! As the computers get better we might not get periods like this much at all. Not really. Computers, data assimilation, and human ingenuity will only take us so far. The atmosphere will always be better than us, and there is nothing we can do about that. Not to mention life without variability would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It does really seem that these last 2 storms the models are confused. Even last season they might have shown us bad solutions (as in no snow) but they appeared to have it figured out. I know (as Messenger pointed out with the last storm) that certain runs of certain models "got it", but they were as apt to lose it as lock it in... I really have no idea if this is a big trend or if it is a burp due to blocking or whatever. It does make people edgy, though. For this event, I would assume that the models never do particularly well because of the type of setup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Have at it Kev: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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