40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well it's also because the trough may stall there too. This is a wicked bust potential for some.These things always get "mesoscale" on us, with a couple or three bands that dump on areas. I think the question is how widespread will the snow be. I think there will be a general 1-3 or 2-4 deal over most areas, but of course..where does the good stuff set up? For now, I think I like those areas I mentioned, but we'll see what the 12z suite does. It could shift it around. No need to make this more complicated than it has to be....when in doubt, resort to climo, which favors far ne MA and the ORH hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 18.1 Very spring like for temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I am getting worried about what the NAM and GFS have shown in the last several runs for southwest and southern Maine. They have us under a giant hole, which climo does NOT favor. I wonder what todays runs will show, its like looking at a magic 8 ball for my area. I'm not overly concerned ... models are still shifting and these troughs are difficult to forecast. Those that are in the bullseye right now may very well be on the outside looking in at verification. We'll see what today brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm not overly concerned ... models are still shifting and these troughs are difficult to forecast. Those that are in the bullseye right now may very well be on the outside looking in at verification. We'll see what today brings. I fully expect a 2-4" 3-5" snowfall, Anything more would be a bonus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well it's also because the trough may stall there too. This is a wicked bust potential for some.These things always get "mesoscale" on us, with a couple or three bands that dump on areas. I think the question is how widespread will the snow be. I think there will be a general 1-3 or 2-4 deal over most areas, but of course..where does the good stuff set up? For now, I think I like those areas I mentioned, but we'll see what the 12z suite does. It could shift it around. Because it's fine band of instability and then meso forcings, I am looking forward to 12z NMM and ARW. Tend to think sref in this case will have too much smearing of qpf when in reality, this event will be very detailed. Really want to see 850 low close off as soon as possible to help enhance conv in inverted trof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I fully expect a 2-4" 3-5" snowfall, Anything more would be a bonus... Pretty much my thoughts with the addition of I think somebody gets lucky and doubles that amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm not overly concerned ... models are still shifting and these troughs are difficult to forecast. Those that are in the bullseye right now may very well be on the outside looking in at verification. We'll see what today brings. I hope so, I have a feeling the NAM in an hour will look different than it just did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well it's also because the trough may stall there too. This is a wicked bust potential for some.These things always get "mesoscale" on us, with a couple or three bands that dump on areas. I think the question is how widespread will the snow be. I think there will be a general 1-3 or 2-4 deal over most areas, but of course..where does the good stuff set up? For now, I think I like those areas I mentioned, but we'll see what the 12z suite does. It could shift it around. pretty much in complete agreement. i'll wait through the 12z runs just to see how they handle that piece of energy coming down through the central lakes/ov and if there is any last attempt to really fire things up on a more widespread scale like we saw at times yesterday. gun to my head i'd go advisory level (1 to 4" type stuff) for all but some lucky bastard sick lollies to 8 to 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I hope so, I have a feeling the NAM in an hour will look different than it just did. Good possibility, and even if it doesn't it won't bother me at all. This is going to come down to watching radar and trends as it's happening, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 pretty much in complete agreement. i'll wait through the 12z runs just to see how they handle that piece of energy coming down through the central lakes/ov and if there is any last attempt to really fire things up on a more widespread scale like we saw at times yesterday. gun to my head i'd go advisory level (1 to 4" type stuff) for all but some lucky bastard sick lollies to 8 to 10". Someone is going to beat what alot of folks in sne saw in the storm of the century, last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Because it's fine band of instability and then meso forcings, I am looking forward to 12z NMM and ARW. Tend to think sref in this case will have too much smearing of qpf when in reality, this event will be very detailed. Really want to see 850 low close off as soon as possible to help enhance conv in inverted trof The MM5 should be interesting too. As far as the mid level lows go, you can see on the 06z NAM, that it may boost the snow near the Berks and perhaps the Catskills for a time, as they attempt to close off. I'd love for H7 to try and go south of my latitude, but that may not be feasible. That's another reason perhaps for nrn areas and up through srn NH and sw ME. They may benefit from that. These things suck to forecast. They're fun from a met standpoint, but as Borat says...."pain is my arsehole" to forecast. I'm sure things will shift a bit in the next 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 pretty much in complete agreement. i'll wait through the 12z runs just to see how they handle that piece of energy coming down through the central lakes/ov and if there is any last attempt to really fire things up on a more widespread scale like we saw at times yesterday. gun to my head i'd go advisory level (1 to 4" type stuff) for all but some lucky bastard sick lollies to 8 to 10". Yeah I'd like to see a nice widespread areas of advisory snows...hopefully we can get back to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Luckily I don't have to worry about the nottheast terminals until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Luckily I don't have to worry about the nottheast terminals until tomorrow. Jeff (blizzardgeek) is agonizing on what to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Luckily I don't have to worry about the nottheast terminals until tomorrow. I am so sweating it... flying back tomorrow. Don't feel it looks bad enough to try to endure a red eye with connection tonight. But don't want to get stuck, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Morning all. Winter storm watch here, surprised to see that, OKX going with 4-10 total for me. In any event, I hope everyone gets some fluff, and for those that celebrate, Happy 3 Kings Day!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Taking a look at the water vapor...I think the 12z runs will have some subtle but perhaps significant changes at initial analysis...I think the Minnesota vort is a little bit further west than depicted on the 06z and 00z runs of the NAM/GFS...and vorticity from the PV is already entering the NE part of Minnesota which is faster and further west than the previous runs of the NAM/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Lots and lots of either broken dreams or inflated weenies this am. Really nice to see the models locking into a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Taking a look at the water vapor...I think the 12z runs will have some subtle but perhaps significant changes at initial analysis...I think the Minnesota vort is a little bit further west than depicted on the 06z and 00z runs of the NAM/GFS...and vorticity from the PV is already entering the NE part of Minnesota which is faster and further west than the previous runs of the NAM/GFS Yep...the NAM initialized further southwest with the PV just north of Superior than the previous two runs. The Minnesota vort is further west than 06z...but about the same as the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I am so sweating it... flying back tomorrow. Don't feel it looks bad enough to try to endure a red eye with connection tonight. But don't want to get stuck, either. What time tomorrow?? My concern is some OES type stuff developing late morning and afternoon. If anything maybe a delay, but at this point..I don't see worse than that...hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Lots and lots of either broken dreams or inflated weenies this am. Really nice to see the models locking into a solution. And what solution is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Taking a look at the water vapor...I think the 12z runs will have some subtle but perhaps significant changes at initial analysis...I think the Minnesota vort is a little bit further west than depicted on the 06z and 00z runs of the NAM/GFS...and vorticity from the PV is already entering the NE part of Minnesota which is faster and further west than the previous runs of the NAM/GFS The question is why is this happenening? This would have been rare to be off by a reasonable margin six hours out in other years unless the models were busting. EVERY six hours we have significant changes to the 6 hour forecast. Why can't NCEP models get a 6h position on a s/w totally in the USA right? Why can they never catch up once they are stumbling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 WRT to the OKX early watch (and their admonishing to the media to keep things cool), I can't help but think of this line from Jaws: "You say barracuda and people say huh? – You say shark and you have a panic on the fourth of July!” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The question is why is this happenening? This would have been rare to be off by a reasonable margin six hours out in other years unless the models were busting. EVERY six hours we have significant changes to the 6 hour forecast. Why can't NCEP models get a 6h position on a s/w totally in the USA right? Why can they never catch up once they are stumbling? Not really. these are subtle changes...models do not stay completely static...even in 6 hour changes. Northern stream energy is always a real challenge. It appears the main difference was with the PV...which is in western Ontario anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 And what solution is that? You didn't catch the sarcasm. At 12z the nam has yet again totally changed the handling of several key features. Staggering suckness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What time tomorrow?? My concern is some OES type stuff developing late morning and afternoon. If anything maybe a delay, but at this point..I don't see worse than that...hopefully. PHX to BOS, 2 PM ET, lands at 7 PM ET. The plane, I believe, comes out here from BOS at 7:40 AM. Do cross-country flights get some sort of priority? It's gotta be tough to make a call 5 hours out, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The question is why is this happenening? This would have been rare to be off by a reasonable margin six hours out in other years unless the models were busting. EVERY six hours we have significant changes to the 6 hour forecast. Why can't NCEP models get a 6h position on a s/w totally in the USA right? Why can they never catch up once they are stumbling? A perfect analysis will never happen. It is impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Surprised to see Upton early on the WSW. This is a no win situation. The public does not and will not understand a "30-60 mile wide swath of snow". people are going to hear WSW and wind up getting a nuisance 1". Glad I'm not forecasting anymore. This is next to impossible to come away looking good! WRT to the OKX early watch (and their admonishing to the media to keep things cool), I can't help but think of this line from Jaws: "You say barracuda and people say huh? – You say shark and you have a panic on the fourth of July!” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You didn't catch the sarcasm. At 12z the nam has yet again totally changed the handling of several key features. Staggering suckness. At this point we can only use the models loosely and just forecast climo. More often than not, these bands will set up right where they usually do in these delicate setups. Of course, this will be a nowcast type of deal and rightfully so. A 20-30 mile wide band could wreak havoc on a couple towns while just outside of this band sees little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 A perfect analysis will never happen. It is impossible. Yeah. You could stop this run...start it again...it would be different. That's how it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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