codfishsnowman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I was also told that as well with my last map for much of CT with my first map for the last storm when I had a large area of 5-9'' for the CT Valley...so then I upped it in my second call...turned out my first map which was "low" would have been pretty darn good. You should be commended for even having a map that low for the post xmas event. I had heard one local met up here in spfd calling for just a half foot but every other forecast was well into the teens!!! I am not sure what happened over there in windsor locks but I know most of the valley had four to eight inches..in fact north of spfd in mid valley of mass there were places that had less than four inches..ie deerfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Not sure if this instills a sense of agreement in the watch either. Espeiclaly when considering duration. I think a watch for your area is definitely warranted, but not down here lol. Back in the other subforum we were discussing if politics and timing might have played a roll (timing because of the rush hour onset, politics because of NYC messing up the last storm-- Bloomberg's and DS fault-- but I didnt like the way they put the onus on the NWS by saying they had no clue we were getting a big snowstorm until it actually started.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 HPC's graphic doesn't agree with okx watch. don' drop the soap Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 don' drop the soap Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I just hope this thing is fairly widespread. I hope some places don't get fooked..but I think they might..and I think northern CT could be one of those spots that gets bent over the tree stump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You should be commended for even having a map that low for the post xmas event. I had heard one local met up here in spfd calling for just a half foot but every other forecast was well into the teens!!! I am not sure what happened over there in windsor locks but I know most of the valley had four to eight inches..in fact north of spfd in mid valley of mass there were places that had less than four inches..ie deerfield. At the time I was really concerned about the potential for dry slot/downslopping but then I backed off that and jumped onto the QPF train lol. BDL's total kind of stuns me though, they reported close to or just over 13'' of snowfall I think I saw. I'm not really sure how they had that much to be honest. Last storm was really hard to gauge though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I just hope this thing is fairly widespread. I hope some places don't get fooked..but I think they might..and I think northern CT could be one of those spots that gets bent over the tree stump I totally agree. I hope this is a widespread event as well but I don't think that will be the case, I think some places will get fooked...big time. This is EXACTLY why my map seems to be on the low side but I did add wording that would "protect" me if some locations ended up wither higher amounts. Although protect is a horrible word...I just used the wording b/c I think that's exactly the case, there will be locations that see more than what I have painted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 THERE ARE TWO EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WHERE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE FIRST AREA WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF HARTFORD COUNTY. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO WHERE THE INITIAL INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETUP AND ALSO WILL SEE SOME BENEFITS OF UPSLOPE. THE SECOND AREAS IS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND PARTICULARLY NORTHEAST MA. THIS IS WHERE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH COLD AIR ALOFT/NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS.-- End Changed Discussion -- AWT, ULLR rewards the faithful. Current Box forecast for my locale calls for 2-4 by nightfall tomorrow then additional snow through the night and more on Saturday. Long duration snowfalls are so great. This is going to be fun and I'm bullish on the East Slope getting a good dose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 From the OKX AFD: Do you think the local media hounds will take heed???? FOR NY/NJ/CT MEDIA...IT MUST BE REITERATED THAT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON PREDICTING WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR. PLEASE HIGHLIGHT THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THAT A WATCH MEANS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXIST FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A SUBTLE SHIFT IN THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL MEAN LARGE DIFFERENCE IN SNOWFALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I just hope this thing is fairly widespread. I hope some places don't get fooked..but I think they might..and I think northern CT could be one of those spots. I hope I gets bent over the tree stump you voracious bottom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 THERE ARE TWO EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WHERE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE FIRST AREA WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF HARTFORD COUNTY. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO WHERE THE INITIAL INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETUP AND ALSO WILL SEE SOME BENEFITS OF UPSLOPE. THE SECOND AREAS IS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND PARTICULARLY NORTHEAST MA. THIS IS WHERE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH COLD AIR ALOFT/NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS.-- End Changed Discussion -- AWT, ULLR rewards the faithful. Current Box forecast for my locale calls for 2-4 by nightfall tomorrow then additional snow through the night and more on Saturday. Long duration snowfalls are so great. This is going to be fun and I'm bullish on KGAY getting a good dose. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 THERE ARE TWO EXCEPTIONS TO THIS WHERE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE FIRST AREA WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF HARTFORD COUNTY. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO WHERE THE INITIAL INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETUP AND ALSO WILL SEE SOME BENEFITS OF UPSLOPE. THE SECOND AREAS IS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND PARTICULARLY NORTHEAST MA. THIS IS WHERE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH COLD AIR ALOFT/NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS.-- End Changed Discussion -- AWT, ULLR rewards the faithful. Current Box forecast for my locale calls for 2-4 by nightfall tomorrow then additional snow through the night and more on Saturday. Long duration snowfalls are so great. This is going to be fun and I'm bullish on the East Slope getting a good dose. Sweet, it mentions upslope potential...something I mentioned or asked about last night. Certainly something to watch out for as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Anyone see DT's 1st guess yet? He's got 12"-16" across SE NY down to western Ct and 8"-12" for LI, southern CT to the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 From the OKX AFD: Do you think the local media hounds will take heed???? FOR NY/NJ/CT MEDIA...IT MUST BE REITERATED THAT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON PREDICTING WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR. PLEASE HIGHLIGHT THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THAT A WATCH MEANS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXIST FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOW WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A SUBTLE SHIFT IN THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL MEAN LARGE DIFFERENCE IN SNOWFALL. OKX taking out of both sides of their mouth; either hoist the watch or don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 you voracious bottom! Squeal like a pig Blizz! I said Squeal!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Anyone see DT's 1st guess yet? He's got 12"-16" across SE NY down to western Ct and 8"-12" for LI, southern CT to the Cape I think his call is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I see no reason to stray from the 3-8" that I offered on Tuesday as a first guess for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 OKX taking out of both sides of their mouth; either hoist the watch or don't. Given the wording there I'm kind of shocked a watch was issued, I would think something like a watch is issued when confidence is at least moderate or high on the potential impact, not when confidence is on the low side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Anyone see DT's 1st guess yet? He's got 12"-16" across SE NY down to western Ct and 8"-12" for LI, southern CT to the Cape We will see, but I think the only chance he has is across the Tug Hill region for that to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Given the wording there I'm kind of shocked a watch was issued, I would think something like a watch is issued when confidence is at least moderate or high on the potential impact, not when confidence is on the low side. and theyre usually so conservative lol. But you know why I think this was issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Agreed. Ray, 2011 is going to be everything 2010 was not. January is going to pummel us with snow which will only serve as an appetizer for an epic Feb/Mar/Apr trifecta. Big Winter incoming, big big Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Ray, 2011 is going to be everything 2010 was not. January is going to pummel us with snow which will only serve as an appetizer for an epic Feb/Mar/Apr trifecta. Big Winter incoming, big big Winter. 4 months ago, I would have slapped two buns on you for that, but I'm inclined to agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 From ALY this morning: WE DO BELIEVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN THE DECAYING PRIMARY LOW...AND THE SECONDARY ONE THAT FORMS NEAR THE NJ COAST/LONG ISLAND LATE FRI PM THROUGH SATURDAY TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ERN CATSKILLS. WE BELIEVE 9 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD OR GREATER. THIS STORM WILL LIKELY NOT BE A 12-HR EVENT...AND 24-HR SNOW CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO JUSTIFY ANY OTHER POTENTIAL WATCHES OR FUTURE WARNINGS. NONETHELESS...THIS APPEARS TO BE A LONG EVENT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE/HVY AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. WE HELD OFF ON FURTHER WATCHES SINCE THE BULK OF THE QPF/SNOWFALL FALLS IN THE 4TH AND 5TH PERIODS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THANKS FOR THE COLLAB WITH BOX...OKX...BGM ON THIS WATCH POTENTIAL. WE ALSO COULD BE DEALING WITH LONG WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT OUR CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST FOR A WATCH STARTING IN THE THIRD PERIOD /FRIDAY/ IS FOR THE CATSKILLS. WE WILL MENTION THE OTHER POSSIBILITIES IN THE HWO PRODUCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 We will see, but I think the only chance he has is across the Tug Hill region for that to verify. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Have fun guys, keep the vigil going. Off to 2k to prep for a decent snowfall. These are the times I love living in the high terrain. This should be a wonderful 48-72+ hrs up here. Think snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 and theyre usually so conservative lol. But you know why I think this was issued. So the sanitation department/Bloomberg can show how quickly they can recover from a witner storm. They're on top of it damn it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 4 months ago, I would have slapped two buns on you for that, but I'm inclined to agree. Keep up the positive behavior and perhaps the CoT will endorse your membership pledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What the heck is CoT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 So the sanitation department/Bloomberg can show how quickly they can recover from a witner storm. They're on top of it damn it! Yeah I would love to get a lot of snow, but I see a bust coming-- maybe only 2" down here, while CT/MASS/RI see 6+ Even with 2 inches though, Im thinking the sanitation department is going to put a lot of work into this "storm" to try and get people to forget what happened last time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Anyone see DT's 1st guess yet? He's got 12"-16" across SE NY down to western Ct and 8"-12" for LI, southern CT to the Cape wait wtf? did I miss something somewhere LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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