nzucker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Someone in the catskills will probably cash in...but for lower elevations its a much tougher call...there will be snow, but it could lift NE pretty fast. I would probably go like 1-3 for your area with a possibility of 4-5" if it goes right. I dont like that the SREFs plus the other guidance doesnt give much. The NAM is quirky. It can hit these but it can also bust bad. Didn't the SREFs trend wetter in the latest run? SUNY MM5, ARW, and NMM all agree on 3-5" for here, so I'm pretty confident we'll get at least some accumulating snowfall. I think the ECM was 2-4" for the area, similar to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I don't recall it affecting VT...it was a E CT and C MA special...it was forecasted extremely poorly by the models...probably the worst of all the events I listed. There was a little clipper type system diving SE but escaped offshore after a quick round of snow (and rain/snow mix on the CP)....then a band of moderate to heavy snow setup over E CT and north up into Central MA...I was forecasting my first year for my first client that winter so i remember it vividly. I had went 1-3" with a possibility of a 4" jackpot because I saw the potential for the norlun. The model were spitting out about an inch or two. I busted and Princeton just north of me got 6.7" of snow...I got near 6". But my forecast was praised by the DOT guys because I went higher than anyone else because I saw the setup and they knew they would have to plow vs a 1-2 salt/sand job....but I was still wrong. That was the first time I really "hit" a forecast against the models...again, even though I still busted which why "hit" is in quotes. There was incredible PVA and the sfc winds were perfect for an ORH hills maxima. That one worked out...but there will be ones I completely look like a fool on...that is part of the game. I've generally had good luck with norluns thus far, but the monster busts will come. They are very difficult to predict. The 12/20/07 event I was only so-so on...I predicted 2-4" and we got 4-6"...but it was all plowable either way, so it was fine...but still, its tough to hit them. I had a client in Union CT that got 1"...and I thought he would get 3-4" too, and he was kind of upset. Will was that the SWFE that gave NYC area like 6-8"..... I think that might have been on the following year on the same date 2/22/08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Didn't the SREFs trend wetter in the latest run? SUNY MM5, ARW, and NMM all agree on 3-5" for here, so I'm pretty confident we'll get at least some accumulating snowfall. I think the ECM was 2-4" for the area, similar to GFS. Given the lead time, I wouldn't go much more than what I said...possible you can get 3-5" There will be accumulating snow there. 36-48h before an inverted trough is an eternity for lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Given the lead time, I wouldn't go much more than what I said...possible you can get 3-5" There will be accumulating snow there. 36-48h before an inverted trough is an eternity for lead time. Definitely...I'm just worried it'll lift NE too fast as you say and affect more LI and CT with light accumulations here. It's still something though, been a great winter so far with the blizzard, cold temps, and now this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Definitely...I'm just worried it'll lift NE too fast as you say and affect more LI and CT with light accumulations here. It's still something though, been a great winter so far with the blizzard, cold temps, and now this! The main thing to understand is that inverted troughs and norlun type events have a massive bust potential. You can easily be modeled to have 10" of snow and then get 1" 24h later. There is a massive bust potential. That is why I said I do not envy the forecast for the low Hudson valley in the NYC subforum. The typical climo for these event is to trend NE as they get closer, but that might not happen this time. But I've seen models try to give me a foot of snow only to give SE ME 6" 24h later and I get flurries....its happened many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Winter storm up for at least Fairfield and New Haven counties in southern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like it includes all of southern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 WeatherX (John in SWCT) is cringing at my post right now saying it always trends NE....don't worry John, you are getting snow out of this. Even if it trends NE. You are in a better spot than NYC metro. We have a long ways to go in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Winter storm up for at least Fairfield and New Haven counties in southern CT. Oh boy -- will the Rev ever crow about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Oh boy -- will the Rev ever crow about that. I'm looking forward to his comments on my snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 WeatherX (John in SWCT) in cringing at my post right now saying it always trends NE....don't worry John, you are getting snow out of this. Even if it trends NE. You are in a better spot than NYC metro. We have a long ways to go in this setup. I'm baffled as to what is going to occur Will.....I do like the fact that we have some robust solutions on the Meso models.....it wouldn't shock me to end up with just an inch though..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm looking forward to his comments on my snowfall map No offense, but I think your snowfall map is horrible...but maybe I'll eat crow for saying that by Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm baffled as to what is going to occur Will.....I do like the fact that we have some robust solutions on the Meso models.....it wouldn't shock me to end up with just an inch though..... I think you'll def get more than an inch John...I'd go like 3-5" there. But not more right now...the Euro gives you like 3"...the NAM wants to give more...and the SREFs do not like more than 4" for you...they like it for me and Ray...but that is the SREF in a norlun at 60h out. As I said before...long ways to go. But I think you will get some decent snow there. In this setup, you more part of SNE than NYC I think. Much more favored for >2" than SW of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wow, seems a little premature to be hoisting up WSW's but I guess OKX thinks it's appropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wow, seems a little premature to be hoisting up WSW's but I guess OKX thinks it's appropriate. They got balls...I def wouldn't do it....but they have been a hot spot this winter and going back to the end of last winter...so maybe they are feeling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think you'll def get more than an inch John...I'd go like 3-5" there. But not more right now...the Euro gives you like 3"...the NAM wants to give more...and the SREFs do not like more than 4" for you...they like it for me and Ray...but that is the SREF in a norlun at 60h out. As I said before...long ways to go. But I think you will get some decent snow there. In this setup, you more part of SNE than NYC I think. Much more favored for >2" than SW of you. Very reasonable.....thanks for your thoughts.....fun to track this for sure...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 They got balls...I def wouldn't do it....but they have been a hot spot this winter and going back to the end of last winter...so maybe they are feeling it. Yeah I'll say..idk Will, Upton tends to overdo snowfall a lot of times IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 No offense, but I think your snowfall map is horrible...but maybe I'll eat crow for saying that by Saturday night. None taken, it probably is horrible and will probably bust badly but I just did it based off of what I looked at and just tried to gauge where the best everything would setup. It is difficult though not knowing past climo and not being able to incorporate or not having much experience but I suppose I have to start somewhere and let this be the beginning of my experiences, so I guess it's not totally horrible if I do lousy now, as long as I gain valuable experience and knowledge and see improvements in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wow, seems a little premature to be hoisting up WSW's but I guess OKX thinks it's appropriate. Within 24 hours of gametime. They can always demote it to advisories vs warnings when the time comes. Or *gasp* not issue anything. We'll see how this interesting system plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Very reasonable.....thanks for your thoughts.....fun to track this for sure...... OKX is going NAM or bust. I'm surprised. That is essentially the only model that supports warning criteria there and even the 06z NAM trended away from it. But they might be right. My inverted trough experience is to expect the lesser amounts and always hedge northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Within 24 hours of gametime. They can always demote it to advisories vs warnings when the time comes. Or *gasp* not issue anything. We'll see how this interesting system plays out. Yeah a met in the NYC thread made that same point just now..I hadn't thought of that..no harm no foul I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah a met in the NYC thread made that same point just now..I hadn't thought of that..no harm no foul I guess? Issuing winter storm watches is a big deal...its a lot easier to upgrade than downgrade...that's from personal experience and also from past busts by the NWS. When the public sees winter storm watches, they start expecting big snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Issuing winter storm watches is a big deal...its a lot easier to upgrade than downgrade...that's from personal experience and also from past busts by the NWS. When the public sees winter storm watches, they start expecting big snow. So if you're them in this situation you would have just posted a WWA or left the Hazardous Weather Outlook until the next update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 OKX is going NAM or bust. I'm surprised. That is essentially the only model that supports warning criteria there and even the 06z NAM trended away from it. But they might be right. My inverted trough experience is to expect the lesser amounts and always hedge northeast. Yeah the NAM was off the hook lol.....I was always expecting lower amounts, with the hope that we might cash in on some banding, we'll see. If this one doesn't work out, there's next week right on our heels....6Z GFS is interesting, fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Issuing winter storm watches is a big deal...its a lot easier to upgrade than downgrade...that's from personal experience and also from past busts by the NWS. When the public sees winter storm watches, they start expecting big snow. Is it possible this being Friday into Saturday had any role in this? Friday afternoon's can be extremely busy travel wise so could this have been done to heighten alert a bit to make folks more aware that the potential exists for some moderate snowfall accumulations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You guys never seem to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 So if you're them in this situation you would have just posted a WWA or left the Hazardous Weather Outlook until the next update? I would have just left it in the HWO...and said stay tuned. The 00z NAM is really the only model that supports warning snows there. I would never go nuts over a forecast here if the NAM was the only model showing unless I had reason to believe it such as climo (ala Dec 2008 ice storm)....but climo certainly doesn't favor NYC getting a warning event out of this. All other guidance is trending away from it...I would consider an advisory, but its not that time yet. But I'm not an NYC snow expert either...I did do a study on NYC heavy snowfall (>6") back in college though. So I kind of know what to look for when talking about warnings there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well, just like at 0z the GFS drags the trough out of the NYC area in short order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 WeatherX (John in SWCT) is cringing at my post right now saying it always trends NE....don't worry John, you are getting snow out of this. Even if it trends NE. You are in a better spot than NYC metro. We have a long ways to go in this setup. Well, besides Suffolk County lol-- those guys always beat us in these set ups. So do the Philly guys it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GFS is painting a weekend with flakes frequently in the air but going very light on accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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