Inverted Trough/ Redeveloper Disco Jan 7-9

[weatherwiz]

y2-y1/x2-x1..that's the equation for slope. (Rise/run)

Yup

I could do that stuff all day and night

[H2Otown_WX]

NAM is starting to get an OES signal for E MA...its hitting BOS area before the main inverted trough gets there.

That's a pretty cool train of surface lows the NAM has going.

[TalcottWx]

NAM is starting to get an OES signal for E MA...its hitting BOS area before the main inverted trough gets there.

There we go I let the NAM know we would be getting OES.

P.S. why the fook am i up?

[Logan11]

All I can say it is ... 23 is still Extremely young. You could probably just take some math classes at a community college starting with basic algebra to build up your skills....

I'm actually a little afraid. I mean it's already 2011, come June I will have been a high school graduate for 5 years already, pretty soon it'll be my 10 year reunion. I'm kind of afraid not being in school for this long I'll have forgotten to do alot of math and such, especially the algebra and geography, even though I was SICK at that in high school.

[weatherwiz]

Pretty major differences QPF wise through 12z Saturday with the 6z run being a bit drier, not that this should be surprising...but it does tend to be in somewhat agreement of the highest totals occurring across SW CT/NYC...but keeps eastern areas drier, except a secondary max area up near the BOS area.

[Logan11]

The NAM is really dissipating the inverted trough a lot after 6Z Saturday this time. Gonna knock the qpf #s down in the favored zone.

[weatherwiz]

All I can say it is ... 23 is still Extremely young. You could probably just take some math classes at a community college starting with basic algebra to build up your skills....

I've thought about the community college route but I really think in the end it would hurt me, just b/c of the money thing and all. As we go through winter and I hopefully get paid off what I owe now and see if I can get into WCSU next fall if this works out than I will head to the library and take out some math text books and such to freshen up my skills and teach myself new stuff as well.

[H2Otown_WX]

I've thought about the community college route but I really think in the end it would hurt me, just b/c of the money thing and all. As we go through winter and I hopefully get paid off what I owe now and see if I can get into WCSU next fall if this works out than I will head to the library and take out some math text books and such to freshen up my skills and teach myself new stuff as well.

Good call, our math professors suck.

[weatherwiz]

The NAM is really dissipating the inverted trough a lot after 6Z Saturday this time. Gonna knock the qpf #s down in the favored zone.

This is something that worried me and heavily influenced me on my snowfall map I made. Just didn't feel too confident on how long exactly the inverted trough will stay in tact, to me it appeared that during the night Friday we start seeing the low level winds begin to shift some and we aren't getting a clean flow right off the ocean and the isobars don't back in as much so the inverted trough look is gone.

Given this I think we would have to really hope for some excellent snow growth with some relatively high ratios and very heavy snow rates in order to generate some widespread moderate snowfall totals.

[weatherwiz]

Good call, our math professors suck.

There are some good one up at LSC from what I heard, in fact they have some awesome professors, I would really love to go back.

[Logan11]

Actually I bet nowadays there are all sorts of math tutorials online and DVD's etc. that are interactive, etc. It's a different world from the 80's when I last took college math courses.

Good call, our math professors suck.

[H2Otown_WX]

There are some good one up at LSC from what I heard, in fact they have some awesome professors, I would really love to go back.

It's so expensive for out of state students though...I have no doubt their program is better than WCSU's but honestly it's something like 30 grand a year to go there..ridiculous.

[H2Otown_WX]

Actually I bet nowadays there are all sorts of math tutorials online and DVD's etc. that are interactive, etc. It's a different world from the 80's when I last took college math courses.

Very true, YouTube has some good math lectures/tutorials.

[Logan11]

I said that after looking at 54 hours and now I see that it is still spitting out -SN along the trough line at 60 and 66 hours ...now aligned E/W further north ...albeit it lighter generally.

To me I think the whole evolution of the I.T. looks more realistic on this run than previous ones.

This is something that worried me and heavily influenced me on my snowfall map I made. Just didn't feel too confident on how long exactly the inverted trough will stay in tact, to me it appeared that during the night Friday we start seeing the low level winds begin to shift some and we aren't getting a clean flow right off the ocean and the isobars don't back in as much so the inverted trough look is gone.

Given this I think we would have to really hope for some excellent snow growth with some relatively high ratios and very heavy snow rates in order to generate some widespread moderate snowfall totals.

[weatherwiz]

It's so expensive for out of state students though...I have no doubt their program is better than WCSU's but honestly it's something like 30 grand a year to go there..ridiculous.

Yeah it's so expensive, basically what you could do in 5 years at WCSU it would be like 1.5 years at LSC.

[weatherwiz]

I said that after looking at 54 hours and now I see that it is still spitting out -SN along the trough line at 60 and 66 hours ...now aligned E/W further north ...albeit it lighter generally.

To me I think the whole evolution of the I.T. looks more realistic on this run than previous ones.

Doesn't look like there is very much in the way of relative humidity though, at least at the 700mb level...unless the low-levels are relatively saturated but you can't see that on NCEP. Unless there also happens to be some great low-level convergence to help?

[ORH_wxman]

I said that after looking at 54 hours and now I see that it is still spitting out -SN along the trough line at 60 and 66 hours ...now aligned E/W further north ...albeit it lighter generally.

To me I think the whole evolution of the I.T. looks more realistic on this run than previous ones.

Well is does give you more snow.

[Logan11]

I'd go the cheap route. Why saddle yourself with such obscene debt.... And if he gets a MET degree I bet developing a network of contacts among Mets would be more valuable than an elite school degree. You know a lot of professionals already.

Now when I was like 20's I had zero contact with anyone that was a Met so I didn't even really take seriously the idea of pursuing it.

It's so expensive for out of state students though...I have no doubt their program is better than WCSU's but honestly it's something like 30 grand a year to go there..ridiculous.

[Logan11]

A bit more. The 0Z run was .5", but 1"+ like 25 miles southwest. This run just happens to be drier in terms of qpf across the board.

Well is does give you more snow.

[nzucker]

I said that after looking at 54 hours and now I see that it is still spitting out -SN along the trough line at 60 and 66 hours ...now aligned E/W further north ...albeit it lighter generally.

To me I think the whole evolution of the I.T. looks more realistic on this run than previous ones.

I think this is pretty close to what is going to verify, too. The inverted trough won't hang around forever as the stronger NW winds get in with the coastal bombing out to our east. These events tend to have limited accumulations, especially down here, so I'm thinking this is a 3-6" event for NYC metro/SW CT and parts of eastern MA with some higher totals perhaps in the Catskills or Gunks. Not looking like a blockbuster event as we miss the main show, but a nice appetizer for next week's Miller A threat and a help with radiational cooling with our 850s dropping to around -14C.

[ORH_wxman]

A bit more. The 0Z run was .5", but 1"+ like 25 miles southwest. This run just happens to be drier in terms of qpf across the board.

I think the NAM is caving to the less ridiculous solutions now. There will be an inverted trough but likely not hammering the same area for 12-18 hours. This looks like a mundane advisory event for a lot of people from your area to here and SW to N of NYC...maybe someone in there can get a warning type snow...but its a very difficult forecast. The models are so flip-floppy in these events and we are seeing it now.

I think I have forecasted about 7 or 8 norlun/inverted trough events now in the past 4 years and this is behaving very typically as those on the models.

[A-L-E-X]

Yeah I used to try to do stuff like this when I was younger. Hell, when I was younger for my fun I used to just do random math equations on my white board and I'd do them for hours. Just simple multiplication and division...but with large numbers. I also used to be obsessed with algebra (I think it's algebra)...my favorite equation of all time is y = mx+b and there was another one as well...it was like y1-y2 / x1-x2 = something (can't remember it exactly, damn it.

If I only knew what math was REALLY like meteorology wise when I was younger I would have started doing some of the more complex math back then and I would have taken math much more seriously in high school and took more challenging classes my senior year.

oh those are the old line graphing equations you were/are probably really good with quadratics too!

[weatherwiz]

I think the NAM is caving to the less ridiculous solutions now. There will be an inverted trough but likely not hammering the same area for 12-18 hours. This looks like a mundane advisory event for a lot of people from your area to here and SW to N of NYC...maybe someone in there can get a warning type snow...but its a very difficult forecast. The models are so flip-floppy in these events and we are seeing it now.

I think I have forecasted about 7 or 8 norlun/inverted trough events now in the past 4 years and this is behaving very typically as those on the models.

What were some of the more recent norlun/inverted trough setups we've had?

[H2Otown_WX]

I'd go the cheap route. Why saddle yourself with such obscene debt.... And if he gets a MET degree I bet developing a network of contacts among Mets would be more valuable than an elite school degree. You know a lot of professionals already.

Now when I was like 20's I had zero contact with anyone that was a Met so I didn't even really take seriously the idea of pursuing it.

Well I am lucky enough to have my dad paying for me but even so.. I'm not going to go somewhere that costs that much especially considering he paid for me to go to private school for 7 years (which got me absolutely nowhere.)

[ORH_wxman]

What were some of the more recent norlun/inverted trough setups we've had?

Jan 18, 2010....Feb 3-4, 2009....Dec 20, 2008....Jan 1, 2008...Dec 19-20, 2007...Feb 22, 2007...

[nzucker]

Jan 18, 2010....Feb 3-4, 2009....Dec 20, 2008....Jan 1, 2008...Dec 19-20, 2007...Feb 22, 2007...

What happened in the February 22nd event? Did that affect Vermont?

I remember most of these but that one escapes me.

[ORH_wxman]

What happened in the February 22nd event? Did that affect Vermont?

I remember most of these but that one escapes me.

I don't recall it affecting VT...it was a E CT and C MA special...it was forecasted extremely poorly by the models...probably the worst of all the events I listed.

There was a little clipper type system diving SE but escaped offshore after a quick round of snow (and rain/snow mix on the CP)....then a band of moderate to heavy snow setup over E CT and north up into Central MA...I was forecasting my first year for my first client that winter so i remember it vividly.

I had went 1-3" with a possibility of a 4" jackpot because I saw the potential for the norlun. The model were spitting out about an inch or two. I busted and Princeton just north of me got 6.7" of snow...I got near 6". But my forecast was praised by the DOT guys because I went higher than anyone else because I saw the setup and they knew they would have to plow vs a 1-2 salt/sand job....but I was still wrong. That was the first time I really "hit" a forecast against the models...again, even though I still busted which why "hit" is in quotes.

There was incredible PVA and the sfc winds were perfect for an ORH hills maxima. That one worked out...but there will be ones I completely look like a fool on...that is part of the game. I've generally had good luck with norluns thus far, but the monster busts will come. They are very difficult to predict. The 12/20/07 event I was only so-so on...I predicted 2-4" and we got 4-6"...but it was all plowable either way, so it was fine...but still, its tough to hit them. I had a client in Union CT that got 1"...and I thought he would get 3-4" too, and he was kind of upset.

[nzucker]

I don't recall it affecting VT...it was a E CT and C MA special...it was forecasted extremely poorly by the models...probably the worst of all the events I listed.

There was a little clipper type system diving SE but escaped offshore after a quick round of snow (and rain/snow mix on the CP)....then a band of moderate to heavy snow setup over E CT and north up into Central MA...I was forecasting my first year for my first client that winter so i remember it vividly.

I had went 1-3" with a possibility of a 4" jackpot because I saw the potential for the norlun. The model were spitting out about an inch or two. I busted and Princeton just north of me got 6.7" of snow...I got near 6". But my forecast was praised by the DOT guys because I went higher than anyone else because I saw the setup and they knew they would have to plow vs a 1-2 salt/sand job....but I was still wrong. That was the first time I really "hit" a forecast against the models...again, even though I still busted which why "hit" is in quotes.

There was incredible PVA and the sfc winds were perfect for an ORH hills maxima. That one worked out...but there will be ones I completely look like a fool on...that is part of the game. I've generally had good luck with norluns thus far, but the monster busts will come. They are very difficult to predict. The 12/20/07 event I was only so-so on...I predicted 2-4" and we got 4-6"...but it was all plowable either way, so it was fine...but still, its tough to hit them. I had a client in Union CT that got 1"...and I thought he would get 3-4" too, and he was kind of upset.

Great post!

How much do you honestly think I get at 350' elevation 10 miles north of NYC? And what do you believe maximum amounts will be and where? Near the Catskills, 6-10"?

[ORH_wxman]

Great post!

How much do you honestly think I get at 350' elevation 10 miles north of NYC? And what do you believe maximum amounts will be and where? Near the Catskills, 6-10"?

Someone in the catskills will probably cash in...but for lower elevations its a much tougher call...there will be snow, but it could lift NE pretty fast. I would probably go like 1-3 for your area with a possibility of 4-5" if it goes right.

I dont like that the SREFs plus the other guidance doesnt give much. The NAM is quirky. It can hit these but it can also bust bad.

[weatherwiz]

Jan 18, 2010....Feb 3-4, 2009....Dec 20, 2008....Jan 1, 2008...Dec 19-20, 2007...Feb 22, 2007...

I certainly would love to see a December 20th, 2008 looking at the snowfall maps from BOX...the new format they have for archiving is pretty sweet.

I can see what you mean though about these type of events usually impacting areas north of the Pike fairly well, looking back at snowfall totals from those event it seems that the majority of the higher totals occur up across parts of NH and down into parts of NE MA and a little further south.

Is this a setup though that does favor those areas as well?