dendrite Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I just forecasted 2-4 as a first guess... we'll see what cooks... My last monster norlun delivered 14.0" with 0.86" w.e. and that wasn't with clearing every 6hrs either. I believe I cleared once after the first 1.3". I'm hoping for 2-3" and then anymore than that is gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 My last monster norlun delivered 14.0" with 0.86" w.e. and that wasn't with clearing every 6hrs either. I believe I cleared once after the first 1.3". I'm hoping for 2-3" and then anymore than that is gravy. When was that? Dec '07? Jan 1, '08? That was sort of a psuedo norlun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 When was that? Dec '07? Jan 1, '08? That was sort of a psuedo norlun. 12/19-20/07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12/19-20/07 Ahh yes, that was the one I was thinking of. That was a good one. I got like 5" in that one (but Kevin had nothign and partly cloudy skies)....Boston up to Ray had 6-8" and SE NH had 8-10" with the higher amounts a little more N and NW inland into interior S ME and your area where 12"+ amounts occurred. That was actually one of the few norluns that were modeled relatively well at 48h...it wasn't perfect, but I remember a decent consensus at 36-48h that didn't waiver too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I don't know how you remember dates Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I don't know how you remember dates Will. Its a disease I think...I have "number sense"...I remember numbers extremely vividly which also helps me remember seasonal totals and such off the top of my head. I get made fun of for it a lot though. People think I sit around and memorize the stuff all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Its a disease I think...I have "number sense"...I remember numbers extremely vividly which also helps me remember seasonal totals and such off the top of my head. I get made fun of for it a lot though. People think I sit around and memorize the stuff all day. WTF? Why would people want to make fun of you for that? Probably just a jealousy thing. I'd KILL to be like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Its a disease I think...I have "number sense"...I remember numbers extremely vividly which also helps me remember seasonal totals and such off the top of my head. I get made fun of for it a lot though. People think I sit around and memorize the stuff all day. I got diagnosed with a short term memory disability this fall lol. Literally cant remember a number set past 4 or 5 forwards or backwards and cannot even spell words backwards in my head if you asked me to do so outloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I got diagnosed with a short term memory disability this fall lol. Literally cant remember a number set past 4 or 5 forwards or backwards and cannot even spell words backwards in my head if you asked me to do so outloud. So does this mean if I were to hand you a sheet of paper and wrote on both sides "See other side" I could have you entertained for hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 So does this mean if I were to hand you a sheet of paper and wrote on both sides "See other side" I could have you entertained for hours? LOL no but seriously for instance a math problem... 17×8.. cant do it at all. I cant get past carrying the remainder in my head. I forget the number I got in the first portion of the problem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 LOL no but seriously for instance a math problem... 17×8.. cant do it at all. I cant get past carrying the remainder in my head. I forget the number I got in the first portion of the problem! I don't want to take this too OT, but for something like 17x8...I just do 17x10 minus 34 (since 17x2 is 34)...so it would be 170-34 which is 136. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I don't want to take this too OT, but for something like 17x8...I just do 17x10 minus 34 (since 17x2 is 34)...so it would be 170-34 which is 136. Last post on the OT... i would forget the 17×8 by the time i got to 34 and get the numbers confused if i didnt have a pen and paper.. its really odd lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 LOL no but seriously for instance a math problem... 17×8.. cant do it at all. I cant get past carrying the remainder in my head. I forget the number I got in the first portion of the problem! wow that sucks. I actually can do math like that in my head...I may not quick at it but I can do it. I don't want to take this too OT, but for something like 17x8...I just do 17x10 minus 34 (since 17x2 is 34)...so it would be 170-34 which is 136. This is exactly what I try to do actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Hey I can convert any C degree to F within about 5 secs. That's my main extra math skill.... otherwise forget it. I don't want to take this too OT, but for something like 17x8...I just do 17x10 minus 34 (since 17x2 is 34)...so it would be 170-34 which is 136. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think the 03z SREFs will be a bit telling with regards to the 00z NAM solution. They didn't like it at 21z but they could try and go toward it at 03z with new 00z data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think the 03z SREFs will be a bit telling with regards to the 00z NAM solution. They didn't like it at 21z but they could try and go toward it at 03z with new 00z data. I'll say the NYC area is overdone and the norlun probably won't deliver on that capacity there. I could envision 6-10" JFK then 2-5" ORH-FIT-HFD then 3-6" BOS-RAY-BOX-PYM. Prelimary ideas of that h5 gets pumping south of us and the BOS/PYM group gets OES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 SREF trended slighty toward the 00z NAM, but they still have a massive spread and give SNE almost 0.50" of qpf...but the spread still amazes me. This forecast is very typical for an inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I got diagnosed with a short term memory disability this fall lol. Literally cant remember a number set past 4 or 5 forwards or backwards and cannot even spell words backwards in my head if you asked me to do so outloud. Football must work wonders in that capacity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I don't want to take this too OT, but for something like 17x8...I just do 17x10 minus 34 (since 17x2 is 34)...so it would be 170-34 which is 136. This is easy stuff for us who have great disdain for calculators lol 7x8 is 56 carry the five mentally, 8+5 is 13..... and there is your 136 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'll say the NYC area is overdone and the norlun probably won't deliver on that capacity there. I could envision 6-10" JFK then 2-5" ORH-FIT-HFD then 3-6" BOS-RAY-BOX-PYM. Prelimary ideas of that h5 gets pumping south of us and the BOS/PYM group gets OES. haha thats a bit too generous for us.... Im expecting 3-5 for JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I just looked at the GGEM and it is loving ENY and I guess south/west SNE a little north of where the NAM initially sets up, but not a lot. Unlike the NAM though it does shift north enough to spread the wealth eventually. SREF trended slighty toward the 00z NAM, but they still have a massive spread and give SNE almost 0.50" of qpf...but the spread still amazes me. This forecast is very typical for an inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 wow that sucks. I actually can do math like that in my head...I may not quick at it but I can do it. This is exactly what I try to do actually. a great mental exercise is to actually try to do long division or a long multiplication (something like 1,563 x 2,379) in your head-- its surprising the kind of short cuts your mind can come up with when youre not glued to a calculator lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What I think makes this all more complicating is the fact that there is a good chance that some locations could potentially pick up as much as 6-10'' of snow and since this may be rather isolated it's almost hard to convey this on a map. I always figured this would be very hard for those who make public forecasts, you can really put this on a map b/c it's not going to be a widespread occurrence and pinpointing the exact spots this may occur may be a bit tricky as well so it's hard to place enhanced wording on maps. I wonder if some spots just east of the Litchfield hills in CT might get some upslope enhancement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 a great mental exercise is to actually try to do long division or a long multiplication (something like 1,563 x 2,379) in your head-- its surprising the kind of short cuts your mind can come up with when youre not glued to a calculator lol Yeah I used to try to do stuff like this when I was younger. Hell, when I was younger for my fun I used to just do random math equations on my white board and I'd do them for hours. Just simple multiplication and division...but with large numbers. I also used to be obsessed with algebra (I think it's algebra)...my favorite equation of all time is y = mx+b and there was another one as well...it was like y1-y2 / x1-x2 = something (can't remember it exactly, damn it. If I only knew what math was REALLY like meteorology wise when I was younger I would have started doing some of the more complex math back then and I would have taken math much more seriously in high school and took more challenging classes my senior year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I dunno what the NAM will show this run... But in general I have a problem with the idea on the NAM that the inverted trough will set up and just train over the same area. As the 5H low pivots and it should slowly lift north at least to a point...where it has aligned more horizontally and less NNW to SSE. That area near the pivot point will get the most and it just fades with time over that corridor. a great mental exercise is to actually try to do long division or a long multiplication (something like 1,563 x 2,379) in your head-- its surprising the kind of short cuts your mind can come up with when youre not glued to a calculator lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well it's certainly not too late to go back and get good at math. You aren't quite over the hill yet. LOL Yeah I used to try to do stuff like this when I was younger. Hell, when I was younger for my fun I used to just do random math equations on my white board and I'd do them for hours. Just simple multiplication and division...but with large numbers. I also used to be obsessed with algebra (I think it's algebra)...my favorite equation of all time is y = mx+b and there was another one as well...it was like y1-y2 / x1-x2 = something (can't remember it exactly, damn it. If I only knew what math was REALLY like meteorology wise when I was younger I would have started doing some of the more complex math back then and I would have taken math much more seriously in high school and took more challenging classes my senior year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well it's certainly not too late to go back and get good at math. You aren't quite over the hill yet. LOL I'm actually a little afraid. I mean it's already 2011, come June I will have been a high school graduate for 5 years already, pretty soon it'll be my 10 year reunion. I'm kind of afraid not being in school for this long I'll have forgotten to do alot of math and such, especially the algebra and geography, even though I was SICK at that in high school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NAM is still hitting SW CT hard, but its trended NE since the 00z run. Lots os model runs to go for this one. Not going to be figured out until probably tomorrow night....if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah I used to try to do stuff like this when I was younger. Hell, when I was younger for my fun I used to just do random math equations on my white board and I'd do them for hours. Just simple multiplication and division...but with large numbers. I also used to be obsessed with algebra (I think it's algebra)...my favorite equation of all time is y = mx+b and there was another one as well...it was like y1-y2 / x1-x2 = something (can't remember it exactly, damn it. If I only knew what math was REALLY like meteorology wise when I was younger I would have started doing some of the more complex math back then and I would have taken math much more seriously in high school and took more challenging classes my senior year. y2-y1/x2-x1..that's the equation for slope. (Rise/run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NAM is starting to get an OES signal for E MA...its hitting BOS area before the main inverted trough gets there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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