500 MB Height Anomalies More Impressive This December Than Last

[bluewave]

While the AO/NAO came in more negative last December,the 500 mb height anomalies were more impressive this year.

December 2009

December 2010

We set a record 500 mb height anomaly back on December 16,2010 at +694 m.

It's very impressive to see the models forecasting such positive anomalies next week near Alaska.

[baroclinic_instability]

Looking forward to the corresponding arctic outbreak for the northern plains.

[nzucker]

Looking forward to the corresponding arctic outbreak for the northern plains.

It is going to be good times indeed when the PV comes crashing down into the Northern Plains. I'm sure you guys will steal all the vodka cold but we'll get into some cold weather in the East as well as the outbreak moves towards the coast. Did you go to college in ND and currently live in MN?

[nzucker]

The 12z GFS ENS want to rebuild an impressive west-based -NAO block in the long range with another monster trough in the East. I'm thinking the high height field in that area is going to stick around for most of the winter; it just seems like this type of persistent high-latitude ridging tends to get stuck in place, especially during times of solar minimum. Canada is also going to be bitterly cold with the monster -EPO block migrating into Northern Siberia.

[baroclinic_instability]

It is going to be good times indeed when the PV comes crashing down into the Northern Plains. I'm sure you guys will steal all the vodka cold but we'll get into some cold weather in the East as well as the outbreak moves towards the coast. Did you go to college in ND and currently live in MN?

Yes sir, got northern plains in my blood. I truly do enjoy a good Arctic outbreak.

Looks like the northern EC may get into some pretty good cold stuff too. We will have to see if the arctic air mass plunges farther S or heads straight E. Looks like the ECM ensemble is going to try to take it E faster than the GFS ensemble.

[nzucker]

Yes sir, got northern plains in my blood. I truly do enjoy a good Arctic outbreak.

Looks like the northern EC may get into some pretty good cold stuff too. We will have to see if the arctic air mass plunges farther S or heads straight E. Looks like the ECM ensemble is going to try to take it E faster than the GFS ensemble.

I love arctic air and enjoy every outbreak. I admire the Northern Plains for its cold spells and blizzards; we just don't get that uninterrupted plunge of arctic air behind the Appalachian Mountains. You could easily see -30C 850s with the upcoming outbreaking, and I believe -40C 850s have made their way into Minnesota before, for example in some of the 1980s outbreaks. That's a very dramatic winter climate you guys have...coldest I've seen here is probably -26C, briefly, in January 2004. It really depends on the movement of the PV as to how this current outbreak unfolds, but I'm thinking it will probably plunge into North Dakota/Eastern Montana first as suggested by 12z OP ECM and then moderate as the coldest air moves East. NYC should see some -20C 850s if everything goes well.

I drove across Minnesota and North Dakota this summer. I spent a night camping in Theodore Roosevelt National Park, never knew ND could be so stunningly gorgeous. That is just an amazing place with the buttes, the juniper forests, the wildflowers...great scenery. Have you been to the North Dakota Badlands?

[baroclinic_instability]

I love arctic air and enjoy every outbreak. I admire the Northern Plains for its cold spells and blizzards; we just don't get that uninterrupted plunge of arctic air behind the Appalachian Mountains. You could easily see -30C 850s with the upcoming outbreaking, and I believe -40C 850s have made their way into Minnesota before, for example in some of the 1980s outbreaks. That's a very dramatic winter climate you guys have...coldest I've seen here is probably -26C, briefly, in January 2004. It really depends on the movement of the PV as to how this current outbreak unfolds, but I'm thinking it will probably plunge into North Dakota/Eastern Montana first as suggested by 12z OP ECM and then moderate as the coldest air moves East. NYC should see some -20C 850s if everything goes well.

I drove across Minnesota and North Dakota this summer. I spent a night camping in Theodore Roosevelt National Park, never knew ND could be so stunningly gorgeous. That is just an amazing place with the buttes, the juniper forests, the wildflowers...great scenery. Have you been to the North Dakota Badlands?

Yes sir! To both the SD/ND Badlands. Two completely different beasts, but both amazingly unique. And I agree, ND does have a gem in the ND Badlands. The rest of ND pretty much stinks in terms of scenery, but the ND Badlands are very scenic.

This cold outbreak has me very excited. Personally I like a good arctic blast, and some of the GFS ensemble members are pretty ridiculous with the potential...including some -36C 850s dropping south of the Canadian border.

[A-L-E-X]

Yes sir! To both the SD/ND Badlands. Two completely different beasts, but both amazingly unique. And I agree, ND does have a gem in the ND Badlands. The rest of ND pretty much stinks in terms of scenery, but the ND Badlands are very scenic.

This cold outbreak has me very excited. Personally I live a good arctic blast, and some of the GFS ensemble members are pretty ridiculous with the potential...including some -36C 850s dropping south of the Canadian border.

Theyre an absolutely awesome area to go camping/hiking! I love the extreme nature of the bad lands, where you can go from record cold to record warm in a matter of hours and then back down again. Not to mention there are some storms where you have a blizzard warning and then a tornado warning in the next county!