DLI4SCwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I hope it rains here instead, if the choice is between ice and no wintery precip. at all. No way, no how , do we need any of that down here or anywhere else for that matter. Just too devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I've been though a .5 inch ice storm and felt like the world was coming to an end -- can't even fathom triple the damage. And then it gets cold as hell? Not good. The thing that would worry me as there's not as many Oaks and sturdy trees down there as there is here...it's mostly pines and we all know how that works out with ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Now the question is this run close to being accurate? Its quite a bit warmer than the higher resolution Euro at that frame, but because it moves the northeast system out quicker i think and maintains more northern track with the southern low, and stalls it. How often do we see a low and warm advection precip last so long in this part of the country? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Hopefully my area in West Georgia and also in Alabama will be spared any major icing. This is a wedging situation right ? If that's the case usually the worst of the ice is Northeast of Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This run looks much more like a classic Miller A, compared to the mixed bag of RN, ZR, IP, and SN that the GGEM and previous runs of the GFS were showing. Somewhat comforting as there should be dominant p-types, with very thin transitions. Honestly could care less at temp profiles at this point just as long as they are close, even less of a worry towards your area. We are starting to see some continuity, and that is a good thing, but I am still expecting some perturbations over the next 48-72 hrs. I just hope this stays a Miller A in future runs, last thing we want to see is a Miller B, I am not sure if that could occur if this slows down more, that's the only worry I have. If we get something frozen (sleet or snow) I will be happy. Sleet/snow mix is nice as it makes sledding more fun :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I hope it rains here instead, if the choice is between ice and no wintery precip. at all. No way, no how , do we need any of that down here or anywhere else for that matter. Just too devastating. I agree. There is just nothing good about a devastating ice storm. I'd much rather have just rain. Being without power and stranded at your house SUCKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Just for fun, b/n 18z mon-6z wed TNB(boone) get's .73 with an average 2m temp of probably -5C(low 20's) and 850 temps slightly colder near -6. So if you factor in a 20 to 25:1 snow ratio, it's probably 15 - 20 inches for most of the elevations above say 3,500ft. Pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Now the question is this run close to being accurate? Its quite a bit warmer than the higher resolution Euro at that frame, but because it moves the northeast system out quicker i think and maintains more northern track with the southern low, and stalls it. How often do we see a low and warm advection precip last so long in this part of the country? Did you see the 18z DGEX? They actually are close to agreeing on QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Where the hell is burger? CLT gets destroyed this run, he should atleast be here to enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 CAE gets 1.58 but 850's mostly above freezing. Surface temps go to 32-33 most of the storms. With 850's nearing 5, I think they "could" escape a severe ice storm due to heat release. If alot of sleet......well, better than zr. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This precip map is amazing, ATL to CAE to CLT are in the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 For CLT, surface temps in the mid to upper 20s the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Also, we've had some ice storms here in the last decade to kind of "weed out" the weaker limbs and trees. I don't know the last one in central S.C., but I'm sure there haven't been too many that were serious. Lots of fresh meat for the evil ice monster. The thing that would worry me as there's not as many Oaks and sturdy trees down there as there is here...it's mostly pines and we all know how that works out with ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It is the GFS and still 5-6 days a way It will change before next week Those are words to live by right there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 00z GFS starting to look like the Euro bringing accumulating snow all the way to the Gulf coast close to Mobile and Pensacola! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm following the extracted data this run...the model is out to 06z Thursday and I still havent cracked freezing since Sunday. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 00z GFS starting to look like the Euro bringing accumulating snow almost all the way to the Gulf coast close to Mobile and Pensacola! I dont mean to pee on your cheerios but the Euro doesnt bring accumulating snow anywhere close to those locations. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Katie bar the door, the Winter Hawk is about to be unleashed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GSO is 1.0" even, all snow. Starts Monday around noon @ 34 degrees and drops into the mid/upper 20's through the storm. RDU is .82 with some ice issues. Stays below freezing, but 850's go just above freezing between say 3 am and noon os so. TW Thanks tarheelwx. I assume the QPF will decrease as you head West and North? With temps in the low 20's, the ratio should be 10-15 to1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Did anybody notice how the 850mb low track went from Southern Louisiana at 96 hours to North Georgia at 120 hours and then straight up I-85 towards Charlotte? Can you say Foothills/Western Piedmont special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 WOW!! DGEX and GFS amazing runs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Macon, would get HAMMERED with snow then a TON of ICE.....I would NOT want this to verify if I were them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 There's decent omega over the piedmont in NC for over 12 hours..crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Just for fun, b/n 18z mon-6z wed TNB(boone) get's .73 with an average 2m temp of probably -5C(low 20's) and 850 temps slightly colder near -6. So if you factor in a 20 to 25:1 snow ratio, it's probably 15 - 20 inches for most of the elevations above say 3,500ft. Pretty crazy. Gonna be a great way to start my semester at app as a commuter from Hudson lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Pgv is looking like an ice (RN) storm unless (becuase) I'm (not) too drunk (enough) fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepSouthSC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This precip map is amazing, ATL to CAE to CLT are in the sweet spot. I guess I'm a tad confused, packbacker. It seems CAE is potentially in a position for plenty of ice (according, to some members on this board). I don't know, whether I would say that is a "sweet spot," per se'. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I dont mean to pee on your cheerios but the Euro doesnt bring accumulating snow anywhere close to those locations. Sorry. I have seen the accuweather Euro snowfall map and it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 GGEM darn near idential to 0z GFS by a quick look over at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This thing looks like a monster. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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