CaryWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 HKY, CLT, GSP(by the skin of their teeth, especially) all appear to hold onto an all snow sounding. How about RDU on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 uh oh.. this hits the NE... prepare for server overload!! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This run looks much more like a classic Miller A, compared to the mixed bag of RN, ZR, IP, and SN that the GGEM and previous runs of the GFS were showing. Somewhat comforting as there should be dominant p-types, with very thin transitions. Honestly could care less at temp profiles at this point just as long as they are close, even less of a worry towards your area. We are starting to see some continuity, and that is a good thing, but I am still expecting some perturbations over the next 48-72 hrs. I agree Weather....I'm just happy to see a storm. I'll worry w/ p-types later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I agree Weather....I'm just happy to see a storm. I'll worry w/ p-types later. Whew! CAE barely escapes an epic icing by .2 degrees! Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This is a complicated mess in terms of precip type and amount on the gfs for ga/sc. The mid level warm nose is narrow and cold enough I think it's probably sleet still through hour 108 in places like athens and still mostly snow in gainesville. But clearly after that it does go over to freezing rain. Over in the upstate, it *looks* to be more of a sleet storm after a period of snow. The warm nose is rather thin and less than 2c while the entire boundary layer is subfreezing through 900mb. So after several inches of snow it's a whallop of a sleet storm. It goes without saying, this is a huge snow hit for north carolina though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Holy mother of god this run is a brutal icestorm for north ga/upstate. This would be epic. Dude... that is not even funny. I love Winterwx, but that right there would be really, really bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 1.25" QPF for the Charlotte area, ALL SNOW. The gold-toothed rat returns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah -- not even really that close in Shelby -- expected to see signs of a warm nose, but, at least on the 12-hour intervals, solid snow sounding all the way .... 1.25" QPF for the Charlotte area, ALL SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 How about RDU on this run? It will get covered just be patient and read geez, wasting space Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 10" of snow falls between 12z Mon and 0z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 uh oh.. this hits the NE... prepare for server overload!! LOL I've been really hoping this misses the mid atlantic on north...as I'm sure most of us have lol. I want to see Ji completely lose his sanity. One run of the gfs though so we'll see what the ggem and euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Definitely a crippling hit for central ga. Most likely 1 to 1.5 inches of ice from ATL to AHN corridor. CAE actually looks a little warm for ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Sadly ATL isn't out of the ice storm yet from the looks of it, definitely need it to go a little warmer to keep the ice away from CAE and ATL. Praying.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What is the QPF you are getting for KGSO? The temps are so cold the ratios will be VERY high if this pans out. I really hope it is wrong for the Ga people cause that would be a devastating ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Taken verbatim, I think RDU probably mixes in with some IP...I'm guessing the IP/SN line would probably be somewhere between Chapel Hill and Raleigh and on southward from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 And it's a hellacious ice storm for KCAE or just N of there in SC...I mean one of a apocalyptic nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Thank goodness we wont have to worry about ice down in CHS and in coastal SC, that looks to be an absolutely terrible ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 E TN does better w/ this run. However, after watching this thing go to Cuba a few nights ago. I will wait to get to excited when the Euro shows it. Gonna be a juicy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Pgv is looking like an ice storm unless I'm too drunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Dude... that is not even funny. I love Winterwx, but that right there would be really, really bad. lol...Well fortunately nothing we say or do here will impact what it's going to do But what I meant by epic is the possibility of major sleet accumulations as well as snow/freezing rain accumulations. I actually think this tends to lean more toward sleet here than freezing rain for a good duration of it. There is also the potential for dynamical cooling as there is some heavy precip/strong lift involved here that is slow to move. These types of things would tend to cool things so it's not a given it's freezing rain..or even sleet for that matter. There was a system a few years ago as you might recall where the models had a plus 3 or 4c 850mb temp here but dynamics actually was able to change it to snow here. Given the heavy totals and the fact that there is decent wedging even at 850mb, there is a good chance there is more snow and sleet than advertised on this run imo. Of course we are worrying about specific sounding details way out in advance on ONE run of the gfs. Honestly though I sure would like to see my 10 plus inch snow that I've never seen. It's always amazing to me how charlotte can see these amounts but it's nearly impossible southwest of there...especially in georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Between 96-102 Goofus almost completely dampens out the southern VM. Good bet this is 6-12 hours to early. If so, that should delay the WAA over N. Alabama, Georgia, and SC. More snow before epic ice if this plays out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Definitely a crippling hit for central ga. Most likely 1 to 1.5 inches of ice from ATL to AHN corridor. CAE actually looks a little warm for ice. Soudings for CAE indicate it's almost all ZR except for some front end SN/IP...the worst case scenario. Easily 1.3-1.5" of QPF as ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Atlanta looks like snow thru 6z Monday and Gainesville thru 12z Monday...per this run. Would be some nice snow totals before any change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Taken verbatim, I think RDU probably mixes in with some IP...I'm guessing the IP/SN line would probably be somewhere between Chapel Hill and Raleigh and on southward from there. Thanks. That's what I was wondering about. Ice is not good, for anybody. No matter how purty it looks. IP is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It gives me up here in N.Foothills of NC 0.77 QPF So alot more than the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well the good news is hits DC hard...I guess this what happens with the early phase, I can't imagine what this will look like if it phases even earlier. I love it when both my hometowns are hit at same time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I've been though a .5 inch ice storm and felt like the world was coming to an end -- can't even fathom triple the damage. And then it gets cold as hell? Not good. Soudings for CAE indicate it's almost all ZR except for some front end SN/IP...the worst case scenario. Easily 1.3-1.5" of QPF as ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GSO is 1.0" even, all snow. Starts Monday around noon @ 34 degrees and drops into the mid/upper 20's through the storm. RDU is .82 with some ice issues. Stays below freezing, but 850's go just above freezing between say 3 am and noon os so. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It is the GFS and still 5-6 days a way It will change before next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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