FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 At 60 hours, this run has the Lakes vortex a good bit further east, versus the same time period on the 12Z. Its now progged to be over western NY/Erie PA, not Michigan. Don't know if that wobble means anything yet. But the southwest system looks about the same. Still snowing in eastern 1/3 of Tenn, western NC and even a little of N GA mountains with flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 at 72, once again the Northeast vortex seems a little further east now, than on the 12z. The cold is very impressive for Tenn/NC with a tight gradient, a lot of the northern sections of those states are -12 at 850. The Southwest system is approaching west Texas. By 84 hours, its in southern Texas with 1.25" to 1.50" inches of rain already there. Really dynamic heavy rainmaker there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 At 60 hours, this run has the Lakes vortex a good bit further east, versus the same time period on the 12Z. Its now progged to be over western NY/Erie PA, not Michigan. Don't know if that wobble means anything yet. But the southwest system looks about the same. Still snowing in eastern 1/3 of Tenn, western NC and even a little of N GA mountains with flurries. At 66, the SW low is slower than 18z. PV about in the same spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Definitely slower at 90 hrs. More wrapped up and more neg tilt, though not as slow as NAM nor as deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 By 90 the eastern Texas wave is creating good divergence over southern Ark, Miss and western Alabama, but it only has the qpf just up to near Tupelo, but plenty of soaking rain in La, eastern Tx. with a 1008 low. By 96, the mositure is about to ATL and BHM to MEM on the northern shield. The 5H has opened up and still strong and heading headlong into northrn Miss and southern Tenn, northern Alabama so there should be excellent lift with precip there and spreading across the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like the 500 low is dead over Houston at 90...it was over the Mississippi Delta at 96 at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Frank Strait on his video blog tonight warned a slower system may not deliver in the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 wowsers lol This storm is crawling east. Amazed at how slow it's moving at hour 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 0z on Monday, the extracted data has me at 28/9. That would mean a low wetbulb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wow! This is an impressive southern stream parcel on the GFS @ 90 hrs. Makes sense, given a 2 contour closed 300mb low making landfall in so Cal in less than 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 wowsers lol This storm is crawling east. Amazed at how slow it's moving at hour 102 the energy sliding down the back side of the trough slowing it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Precip starts as snow as far south as nearly to savannah. 2 meter temps are at freezing already between augusta and macon per plymouth. Temps in the upper 20s in atlanta/athens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks as if it phased w/ the 2nd wave earlier this run. It will probably be closer to the coast this run. That might cause a serious warm layer for the eastern part of the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 850's colder this run by 2C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What it appears to be doing now is phasing the incoming Rockies with the Alabama system, and warms GA above freezing, but finally has good precip breaking out all over the Southeast. Upstate SC and most of NC is snow (or mix in upstate) with damming, and a strong 850 low holds stationary a long time in central Alabama. The GFS is probably still having problems resolving this complicated mess, by pushing the 2 systems together, and then overrunning most of the Southeast with warm air aloft. The suface could still be an icestorm in GA though, on this run. By 120 and 126 it has crawled the surface low slowly across GA and southern SC, it hits Tenn. and the Carolinas pretty hard, and probably n. GA with ice, but it warms it there aloft . Its a messy setup, big winter storm , but extremely messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looking juicy at 120... 0 line riding I-85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wow!!! huge hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Holy mother of god this run is a brutal icestorm for north ga/upstate. This would be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 .64 QPF by 0z Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yeah -- ugly, ugly ice storm for somebody if these GFS runs verify. What it appears to be doing now is phasing the incoming Rockies with the Alabama system, and warms GA above freezing, but finally has good precip breaking out all over the Southeast. Upstate SC and most of NC is snow (or mix in upstate) with damming, and a strong 850 low holds stationary a long time in central Alabama. The GFS is probably still having problems resolving this complicated mess, by pushing the 2 systems together, and then overrunning most of the Southeast with warm air aloft. The suface could still be an icestorm in GA though, on this run. By 120 and 126 it has crawled the surface low slowly across GA and southern SC, it hits Tenn. and the Carolinas pretty hard, and probably n. GA with ice, but it warms it there aloft . Its a messy setup, big winter storm , but extremely messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Just a tad juicier than previous run....LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 gfs is going to go loony toons on the qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Areas in central GA to near Athens to Greenwood SC to west of Columbia get 1.75" to 2.00" of precip through hour 141, but that includes tonights moisture. Some areas in La an Texas get over 3" from the system ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Can't wait to see what it does as far as juiciness in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Just as I expected it is closer to the coast. This is good for W. NC but for the E. NC. I have not looked at the data but just from the surface map it looks like a snow/ip/snow for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 What it appears to be doing now is phasing the incoming Rockies with the Alabama system, and warms GA above freezing, but finally has good precip breaking out all over the Southeast. Upstate SC and most of NC is snow (or mix in upstate) with damming, and a strong 850 low holds stationary a long time in central Alabama. The GFS is probably still having problems resolving this complicated mess, by pushing the 2 systems together, and then overrunning most of the Southeast with warm air aloft. The suface could still be an icestorm in GA though, on this run. By 120 and 126 it has crawled the surface low slowly across GA and southern SC, it hits Tenn. and the Carolinas pretty hard, and probably n. GA with ice, but it warms it there aloft . Its a messy setup, big winter storm , but extremely messy. yep. surface freezing over most of NC, upstate SC, N GA. 850 zero line a bit further north... puts upstate SC, N GA in the ice category for a period. W NC.. big snow hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks as if it phased w/ the 2nd wave earlier this run. It will probably be closer to the coast this run. That might cause a serious warm layer for the eastern part of the Carolinas. This run looks much more like a classic Miller A, compared to the mixed bag of RN, ZR, IP, and SN that the GGEM and previous runs of the GFS were showing. Somewhat comforting as there should be dominant p-types, with very thin transitions. Honestly could care less at temp profiles at this point just as long as they are close, even less of a worry towards your area. We are starting to see some continuity, and that is a good thing, but I am still expecting some perturbations over the next 48-72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 HKY, CLT, GSP(by the skin of their teeth, especially) all appear to hold onto an all snow sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 1.25" QPF for the Charlotte area, ALL SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 HKY, CLT, GSP(by the skin of their teeth, especially) all appear to hold onto an all snow sounding. How about RDU on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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