Gastonwxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It's already January 9th? I kid, I kid. I'll go sit in timeout now. Haha lilj. Anyway, seems as though the rain stopped as quick as it started, but all is wet here regardless. My temperature's sitting at 39 as of now after cooling down from 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Its coming for sure!!! I like this quote coming from you. Any opinions from you on the potential storm? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepSouthSC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Just dreaming, but since there is a chance, however small, I'd love nothing more for MBY than an inch of sleet, followed by 4-6 inches of snow, followed by .75zr, then topped of by a couple inches of back end snow just to pretty things up. I would sign up for that type of scenario. Actually, that is similiar to what happened in my area during the January 1988 southeast winter storm. The total amount of freezing precip might be a little off, but that type of scenario was quite similiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I got a question. When forecasting for sleet accumulations. Do you use the generic 5:1/10:1 snow ratios as well, or is there a different kind of approach to forecast how much the sleet accumulates? <3:1 is a good starting point when looking at IP to RN ratios http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/nomogram/ip.and.freezingrain.2.html Liquid equivalent to sleet ratios - a limited number of “largely to all sleet” cases suggest a liquid equivalent to sleet ratio of 1:2-3 inches. Its coming for sure!!! That's what she said... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I would sign up for that type of scenario. Actually, that is similiar to what happened in my area during the January 1988 southeast winter storm. The total amount of freezing precip might be a little off, but that type of scenario was quite similiar. grew up in cola, i remember pizza pan sledding that crust for 3-4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Delta, We can always count on you to chime in with there is a legitimate threat for the Southeast. I live just down from your ol' stomping grounds in Macon (I'm just south of Warner Robins) and, as you know, we don't get too many winter weather opportunities down this way. I'm sure we'll get a call map out of you as we get closer to the main event, but I would love to hear your preliminary thoughts about how this might play out in central Georgia. I sure would prefer snow over ice, but you can't be too picky when it comes to winter weather around these parts! Looking forward to your input! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 3:1 is a good starting point when looking at IP to RN ratios http://www4.ncsu.edu...zingrain.2.html Thank you. Nice link too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I just updated my forecast and discussion: http://www.sandhillswx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Gfs is a little baffling given the setup. Sleet is a bit awkward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 back to the models- 00Z NAM has SW closed low very positively tilted and the NW trough less deep at 72 hours- not sure I like that. But it is the NAM. Update- 84 hour has the trough becoming neutral tilt over TX and Mexico- actually not too far from the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 i started a general model thread since people have been asking where they went and there should be one with storm threats, this is just a heads up to those in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 back to the models- 00Z NAM has SW closed low very positively tilted and the NW trough less deep at 72 hours- not sure I like that. But it is the NAM. How would this possibly impact the track/strength if it is correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 back to the models- 00Z NAM has SW closed low very positively tilted and the NW trough less deep at 72 hours- not sure I like that. But it is the NAM. Update- 84 hour has the trough becoming neutral tilt over TX and Mexico- actually not too far from the Euro Looks to be a good bit slower in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Of note, thru 72hrs, the 00z NAM is slower to weaken, and is much further west with NE PV than the 18z GFS. 850 0 line further south down to the Ga.- Fla border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like Euro to me on 12z Sun, a little slower sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Delta, We can always count on you to chime in with there is a legitimate threat for the Southeast. I live just down from your ol' stomping grounds in Macon (I'm just south of Warner Robins) and, as you know, we don't get too many winter weather opportunities down this way. I'm sure we'll get a call map out of you as we get closer to the main event, but I would love to hear your preliminary thoughts about how this might play out in central Georgia. I sure would prefer snow over ice, but you can't be too picky when it comes to winter weather around these parts! Looking forward to your input! I actually lived in Perry for about 12 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like Euro to me on 12z Sun, a little slower sw. Yes...at first glance it looks similar to the 12 EURO at the same time stamps at 60 and 84 hours...except a little slower with the trough over TX and surface low placement. Otherwise it looks close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I just updated my forecast and discussion: http://www.sandhillswx.com Thanks for the notice. I almost always give it a read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The NAM looks like the Euro at 84 hour, the Northeast Vortex is pulling out and the ULL opens up and begins to go neutral tilt, witha lot of moisture in Texas. Its a little slower. Strikingly similar though overall, esp. considering its the NAM at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Delta, I didn't know you called Perry home at one time. We've actually had measurable snow the past two years. I think you were still on TV in Macon for one of those before you moved out west. Is this next storm going to give us our next measurable snow? It appears the EURO might give us our best chance, otherwise we might be looking at an IP or ZR event instead. I'm looking forward to your input and your call maps. Make sure you show some love to Houston County! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 i started a general model thread since people have been asking where they went and there should be one with storm threats, this is just a heads up to those in this thread http://www.americanw...6-0z-models-16/ You should go back to the miserable snowless Middle Atlantic threads...Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You should go back to the miserable snowless Middle Atlantic threads...Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You should go back to the miserable snowless Middle Atlantic threads...Thanks. I doubt any of us will be straying over there anyway...Ji is enough to make you want to kill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 84 hour NAM 850 temps are cold...especially across NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Oh I saw it and as soon as I did I started yelling at the tv lol. I was on the phone when I saw that and I nearly dropped it. Holy freaking hell, he flat out LIED about what the gfs was showing. Here's the deal, he was actually showing (in words only, no contour graphics) the euro and gfs. Said the euro was snow but then he shows the gfs and said it showed RAIN for north ga and sleet/freezing rain for SOUTH georgia which is of course a total LIE. Besides it being a total lie, any one care to tell me when there was an icestorm in south georgia and rain in north Ga? ' This crap just pisses me off because it's such a disgrace for a so called met to get on tv and lie through his teeth like that. My god glen motherf'n burns is such a total douchebag and fraud. I'm actually going to send in a complaint to them and I hope others do too..this type of stuff is beyond the pale and woefully unprofessional. If he hasn't got the guts to actually truthfully show what those two models are showing, he needs to sit his ass down and STFU. Sorry for the sort of off topic rant, but that was absolutely pathetic. Geez lookout! How do you really feel? LOL!!! Did you like Vince's Christmas gift? I was going to put his head on a silver platter but not so good with cut and paste! LMAO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I85Greenville Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 So correct me if I'm wrong here, but if this thing slows down too much, isn't there a risk of it phasing/getting eaten by the biggie currently in the Northwest and then going West of the Apps? Is there something preventing that from happening? It just seems very far offshore right now, and being detached I don't see much of anything making it move. I realize it's probably heresy to even mention that, but just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You should go back to the miserable snowless Middle Atlantic threads...Thanks. Gotta love that man-made global warming taking away their snow...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well, WRAL has snow in their Mon/Tue forecast. Not rain. Not ice. Not a mix, but plain ole snow. That's bold for these guys. http://www.wral.com/weather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Nice snowy day shaping up for Friday in the mtns of Tn/NC with strong winds and cold advection. At 48 hours, the southern Cal cutoff is very strong and closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 SW low stronger than NAM and more cut off than 18z GFS. PV is a bit weaker than NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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