Cameronfry Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Weenies won't like Greg Fish in RDU if they watched at 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoebuck Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yay for more Upstate posters!!! I have family in Roebuck so post often! GSP has pulled the 1988 trigger. Thanks I will, I've been on Eastern as DFree9 for 5 years and have conversed with you. I was wondering if someone could repost the image that ICEHOCEY77 put up for the 88 storm. I went back to his post, but it just said Posted Image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 New CAE AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Thanks I will, I've been on Eastern as DFree9 for 5 years and have conversed with you. I was wondering if someone could repost the image that ICEHOCEY77 put up for the 88 storm. I went back to his post, but it just said Posted Image Talking about this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 New CAE AFD They didn't change anything about the long term. The long term was kind of wrong anyway lol. If the GFS is onto something, then I can see it being right though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I understand, and this can easily shift back northward and trend stronger, but the strong agreement among the models all the way down to the QPF output makes me pause for a second. Just feeling a little skeptical today. The 0z models may start to point the way of a trend. I agree Wow...I'm feeling a little skeptical today also for the RDU area. I'm not saying we won't get anything but like you I have not been impressed w/ the trends today for us to end up w/ a major storm. I'm always a little skeptical though because I've seen a lot of storms trend against me in the past. I am happy that things are looking good for those that haven't received a lot of snow in the past but I don't have a warm fuzzy for mby yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Weenies won't like Greg Fish in RDU if they watched at 6. Care to add to the disco and say what he actually said (I didn't watch at 6).....I'm assuming he went a bit conservative with next weeks storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoebuck Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Talking about this one? Thanks, that's it, here is a link to an interesting paper on that storm: http://www.erh.noaa....s/ta2001-02.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Care to add to the disco and say what he actually said (I didn't watch at 6).....I'm assuming he went a bit conservative with next weeks storm? He was non-committal -- said it could be a little or a lot, or nothing at all. Pretty standard conservative fare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Care to add to the disco and say what he actually said (I didn't watch at 6).....I'm assuming he went a bit conservative with next weeks storm? He said all options are on the table from a light event to a heavy event. He said not to hang your hat on anything at this point and that things would resolve themselves in a day or two. He said he felt it was likely we'd see some snow, but he wasn't ready to forecast armageddon yet. He said nothing bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Van Denton, FOX8 in High Point showed 3-6" here as a model prediction. Pretty bold for Van. He is usually a dusting to an inch kind of guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I agree Wow...I'm feeling a little skeptical today also for the RDU area. I'm not saying we won't get anything but like you I have not been impressed w/ the trends today for us to end up w/ a major storm. I'm always a little skeptical though because I've seen a lot of storms trend against me in the past. I am happy that things are looking good for those that haven't received a lot of snow in the past but I don't have a warm fuzzy for mby yet. I've had this feeling all along for my area, And today I really have an uneasy feeling, All models have come in with less qpf But Foothills told me not to worry about qpf amounts. So I'm not yet ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I've had this feeling all along for my area, And today I really have an uneasy feeling, All models have come in with less qpf QPF isn't as important right now. The track is semi-consistent across all the models right this second. We need to work out the strength & temps and only time will let us do that first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Van Denton, FOX8 in High Point showed 3-6" here as a model prediction. Pretty bold for Van. He is usually a dusting to an inch kind of guy. I saw that LOL. Your right, pretty bold for a guy that really seems to not like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cameronfry Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Care to add to the disco and say what he actually said (I didn't watch at 6).....I'm assuming he went a bit conservative with next weeks storm? Sorry, I am on my mobile and thought I was in the banter thread. He talked about alot of dry air to the south that could hurt us when precip finally arrives. He showed a model (don't know which) that had alot of precip north of NC. Haven't seen anything like that on here though. I still have nightmares about Dec 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 And so it begins tonight with the feelings of low QPF because of the models. Personally I am not going to get worried unless there is a huge swing. Remember the Christmas storm was more robust it just missed us because of the setup. Setup with this is totally different but it's probably just underdoing how strong our storm is going to be. I understand anything could happen and our QPF could end up being very low...but it seems more likely we will get more out of this then what the current models show. If the 00z NAM comes in wetter again I don't think we have to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 18z UKMET @ 72hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cameronfry Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 He said all options are on the table from a light event to a heavy event. He said not to hang your hat on anything at this point and that things would resolve themselves in a day or two. He said he felt it was likely we'd see some snow, but he wasn't ready to forecast armageddon yet. He said nothing bad at all. Sorry about that. Thought I was in the banter thread and was speaking more about brick's reaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Van Denton, FOX8 in High Point showed 3-6" here as a model prediction. Pretty bold for Van. He is usually a dusting to an inch kind of guy. When Van Denton says 3" to 6", prepare for two and a half feet. Everything is a dusting to Van. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just to clarify I don't think Van Denton predicted any amounts, he simply stated that based on today's gfs run it would be 3-6 inches total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 And so it begins tonight with the feelings of low QPF because of the models. Personally I am not going to get worried unless there is a huge swing. Remember the Christmas storm was more robust it just missed us because of the setup. Setup with this is totally different but it's probably just underdoing how strong our storm is going to be. I understand anything could happen and our QPF could end up being very low...but it seems more likely we will get more out of this then what the current models show. If the 00z NAM comes in wetter again I don't think we have to worry. Yep, I've gotten more than modeled in each of my last 3 events. I think this will bring the precip. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 When Van Denton says 3" to 6", prepare for two and a half feet. Everything is a dusting to Van. He tends to play things down for sure. If he was forecasting in NYC in the Day After Tomorrow his forecast would be.......damp followed by cooler temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Just to clarify I don't think Van Denton predicted any amounts, he simply stated that based on today's gfs run it would be 3-6 inches total. Correct but still somewhat surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 He was non-committal -- said it could be a little or a lot, or nothing at all. Pretty standard conservative fare. He said all options are on the table from a light event to a heavy event. He said not to hang your hat on anything at this point and that things would resolve themselves in a day or two. He said he felt it was likely we'd see some snow, but he wasn't ready to forecast armageddon yet. He said nothing bad at all. Thanks guys! I figured Greg threw his hat in early or something, but he's just being classic fish. Sorry, I am on my mobile and thought I was in the banter thread. He talked about alot of dry air to the south that could hurt us when precip finally arrives. He showed a model (don't know which) that had alot of precip north of NC. Haven't seen anything like that on here though. I still have nightmares about Dec 2000. No problem man, but you know what we're used to around here and I was like at frist... Thanks for the reply! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoebuck Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 This is an excerpt from the study I posted above http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/TechAttachments/ta2001-02.pdf I know GSP referenced this storm in their AFD today, I was wondering if mets on this board could comment on the exact similarities to our current theat. IV. Conclusion The 7-8 January 1988 heavy snow event across Georgia and the Carolinas is an illustration of a record-setting snowfall that resulted from a flow pattern significantly different than a flow pattern associated with the more heralded nor’easter. In the absence of strong digging shortwaves, high amplitude troughs, and a rapidly deepening surface cyclone, heavy snow fell across a significant portion of north Georgia and the Carolinas, including the metropolitan areas of Greenville Spartanburg, Asheville, Charlotte, Greensboro, Raleigh and Columbia. The heavy snow, greater than 12 inches along and north of the Interstate 85 corridor in the western Carolinas shut down commerce and closed schools for days. This case study simply serves as a reminder that forecasters should be just as aware of prolonged, strong isentropic lift as they are of strong cyclogenesis when anticipating significant snowfall events in the southeastern United States. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 And so it begins tonight with the feelings of low QPF because of the models. Personally I am not going to get worried unless there is a huge swing. Remember the Christmas storm was more robust it just missed us because of the setup. Setup with this is totally different but it's probably just underdoing how strong our storm is going to be. I understand anything could happen and our QPF could end up being very low...but it seems more likely we will get more out of this then what the current models show. If the 00z NAM comes in wetter again I don't think we have to worry. [/quote I am "kind of" concerned about temps attm, more that anything! The setup is SWEET, and qpf should not be a problem! I just do not want a mixed, slushy, muddy mess of WTF! EDIT: sorry about this post earlier. I had posted from the iphone and it does not work out too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 Yep, I've gotten more than modeled in each of my last 3 events. I think this will bring the precip. T me too! There always seem to be a let down of a couple model runs that get people worried. Myself included, then Foothills or Dawson or any of our awesome mets will put some sense in us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tristar Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I hope I'm not intruding....my 1st post and don't want to break any rules. I live inTopton, NC, far Western NC at 3,006'. I'm about 8 miles ENE of KRHP, Andrews-Murphy airport. If our road gets over 2" then we're stuck up here until it melts. This looks like we may be here a while but we always have 3 weeks of food and a 65K automatic Propane generator. Plus several propane non-electric heaters and 2 fireplaces. Anyway, if I can be of help with reporting conditions, I'll gladly post them. I have a Davis Pro wireless and upload to several sites. Here's the link to wunderground: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNCTOPTO2 it also has a webcam. Again, if my condition input would be usefull I'll gladly post. To tell the truth, about all you guys talk about is 'Greek'! But I can figure out quite a lot of the posts. Thanks again and hope I'm not out of line by posting this non-weather information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 What is lost? It is the 18 gfs. Also, gsp made mention to the 1988 storm and the slp being weak. No sweat here jeesh - i have had to catch up on several hundred posts since i was last able to log on lol. agreed, the storm doesnt have to be that strong to give us a good winter storm (and that might help limit the warmer air coming in overhead). besides, if this turns into a longer duration event, it can still pile on up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 7, 2011 Share Posted January 7, 2011 I hope I'm not intruding....my 1st post and don't want to break any rules. I live inTopton, NC, far Western NC at 3,006'. I'm about 8 miles ENE of KRHP, Andrews-Murphy airport. If our road gets over 2" then we're stuck up here until it melts. This looks like we may be here a while but we always have 3 weeks of food and a 65K automatic Propane generator. Plus several propane non-electric heaters and 2 fireplaces. Anyway, if I can be of help with reporting conditions, I'll gladly post them. I have a Davis Pro wireless and upload to several sites. Here's the link to wunderground: http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=KNCTOPTO2 it also has a webcam. Again, if my condition input would be usefull I'll gladly post. To tell the truth, about all you guys talk about is 'Greek'! But I can figure out quite a lot of the posts. Thanks again and hope I'm not out of line by posting this non-weather information. Welcome! Observations are always helpful! If you stay around long enough you will start to figure the foreign language of the Mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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