The Jan 9-11 Storm

[eyewall]

As always in my area I am expecting some sort of p-type screw job but we will see if the fail zone can stay dead on this one.

[dsaur]

I don't like it looking so good this far out...but yet i do...too many model runs to go.:snowman:

Yeah, me too. I still have this nagging feeling this could devolve into an icy city crusher with just a little nudging. 7 inches of snow just sounds too good. During Christmas the doc had me in one foot territory days out, and I ended up with lots of rain and an inch in the end. I'm tempering my enthusiam for a few more runs. T

[BullCityWx]

Bufkit absolutely obliterates KPDK...6.3" in 3 hours.

[kanc2001]

As always in my area I am expecting some sort of p-type screw job but we will see if the fail zone can stay dead on this one.

you arent kidding, I'm still batting .000 on the season. not that i'm expecting alot here, but i would at least like to whiten the palmettos

[wake4est]

18z GFS paints 2-3" of snow in the Triangle area north tomorrow night with the little clipper event.

I think ground temps here are in the mid-40s, which would limit accumulation.

[rduwx]

Neg tilt on the 18z gfs @ 69...nice precip in SE Tx.

[BullCityWx]

SUNDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY CLOUDY.

A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT.

MONDAY

CLOUDY.

SNOW LIKELY</B></U></I>

MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.

MONDAY NIGHT

CLOUDY.

SNOW LIKELY IN THE EVENING</B></U></I>

THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW AND SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.

TUESDAY

A CHANCE OF SLEET IN THE MORNING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.

CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.

[triadwx]

18z GFS paints 2-3" of snow in the Triangle area north tomorrow night with the little clipper event.

I think ground temps here are in the mid-40s, which would limit accumulation.

I saw that, but I'm not buying into that. Probably just a dusting, and possibly an inch along the I-40 Corridor from Hickory to Raleigh.

[rduwx]

Looks like the energy is transfering to the 2nd wave earlier on the 18z gfs....around hr 90....I think this will have more qpf but also have a more icy look to it.

[packbacker]

Looks like the energy is transfering to the 2nd wave earlier on the 18z gfs....around hr 90....I think this will have more qpf but also have a more icy look to it.

Yeah, if it phases earlier I think central/east NC and north could do better but then that could mean ice south, I just hope we all get something frozen (sleet/snow) so atleast most everyone can be happy.

[burgertime]

Anyone wanna chime in on the temp profiles the 18z is spitting out? Not to worried but it certainly looks more icy for a lot of folks in NC and SC.

[rduwx]

Yeah, if it phases earlier I think central/east NC and north could do better but then that could mean ice south, I just hope we all get something frozen (sleet/snow) so atleast most everyone can be happy.

Yeah, I should of clarified that I was talking about NC.

[triadwx]

Anyone wanna chime in on the temp profiles the 18z is spitting out? Not to worried but it certainly looks more icy for a lot of folks in NC and SC.

Yeah Burger, the GFS is starting to lean more towards an icy event. But it still is showing a good amount of snow, with a good amount of ice..

[BullCityWx]

Anyone wanna chime in on the temp profiles the 18z is spitting out? Not to worried but it certainly looks more icy for a lot of folks in NC and SC.

Solid snow sounding here at 84...we'll see at 96:

Date: 3.5 day AVN valid 6Z MON 10 JAN 11
Station: 35.31,-81.23
Latitude:   35.31
Longitude: -81.23
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   214                                                                 
SFC  995   254  -3.2  -5.3  85  2.1  -3.9 214   1 270.4 270.8 269.5 277.4  2.59
 2  950   618  -5.6  -7.3  88  1.7  -6.1 131   4 271.5 271.9 269.8 277.9  2.32
 3  900  1041  -7.0  -8.1  92  1.1  -7.4 121  11 274.3 274.7 271.5 280.7  2.30
 4  850  1488  -5.3  -5.9  96  0.6  -5.5 151  12 280.6 281.1 276.0 288.7  2.89
 5  800  1966  -4.0  -4.2  98  0.3  -4.1 200  17 286.9 287.5 280.0 297.0  3.49
 6  750  2475  -4.9  -5.0  99  0.2  -5.0 220  23 291.3 291.9 282.0 301.6  3.50
 7  700  3016  -6.7  -6.9  99  0.2  -6.8 231  24 295.1 295.6 283.3 304.8  3.26
 8  650  3594  -7.9  -8.4  97  0.4  -8.1 240  27 300.0 300.5 285.1 309.5  3.12
 9  600  4214 -10.5 -11.0  96  0.6 -10.7 245  32 304.0 304.5 286.2 312.6  2.74
10  550  4879 -14.0 -14.3  97  0.3 -14.0 246  51 307.5 308.0 287.1 314.9  2.30
11  500  5599 -16.7 -16.9  98  0.2 -16.7 248  71 312.7 313.1 288.5 319.4  2.04
12  450  6384 -21.7 -21.8  99  0.1 -21.7 246  74 316.0 316.2 289.0 320.9  1.48
13  400  7237 -29.7 -29.9  98  0.2 -29.7 243  75 316.4 316.5 288.5 319.2  0.80
14  350  8174 -37.2 -38.8  86  1.5 -37.4 241  83 318.5 318.6 288.7 319.9  0.38
15  300  9222 -44.5 -48.7  63  4.1 -44.7 238  95 322.6 322.6 289.7 323.2  0.15
16  250 10419 -53.0 -55.8  72  2.8 -53.1 238 105 327.3 327.3 291.0 327.6  0.08
17  200 11833 -59.3 -62.7  65  3.3 -59.4 241 106 338.8 338.8 294.1 339.0  0.04
18  150 13633 -59.3 -70.0  24 10.7 -59.5 250  90 367.8 367.9 300.2 367.9  0.02
19  100 16143 -64.6 -80.2  10 15.5 -64.8 260  67 402.9 402.9 305.6 402.9  0.01
TRP                                             0                              

[WhiteoutWX]

Anyone wanna chime in on the temp profiles the 18z is spitting out? Not to worried but it certainly looks more icy for a lot of folks in NC and SC.

Ya 850s are above zero this run for Charlotte by 96 hrs

[BullCityWx]

Still snow here at 96:

Date: 4 day AVN valid 18Z MON 10 JAN 11
Station: 35.31,-81.23
Latitude:   35.31
Longitude: -81.23
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   187                                                                 
SFC  992   254  -1.3  -2.5  92  1.2  -1.8  48  11 272.5 273.0 271.8 281.2  3.20
 2  950   593  -4.4  -4.7  98  0.3  -4.5  54  18 272.7 273.2 271.4 280.5  2.83
 3  900  1020  -2.6  -2.9  98  0.3  -2.7  84  18 278.9 279.5 275.8 288.4  3.43
 4  850  1476  -0.0  -0.3  98  0.2  -0.2 135  16 286.1 286.9 280.7 298.6  4.41
 5  800  1962  -0.4  -0.5  99  0.2  -0.4 168  28 290.8 291.6 283.0 304.0  4.60
 6  750  2478  -1.1  -1.3  99  0.2  -1.2 186  38 295.4 296.3 285.0 309.1  4.65
 7  700  3027  -3.1  -3.3  99  0.2  -3.2 205  36 299.0 299.8 286.0 311.9  4.29
 8  650  3610  -7.6  -9.2  88  1.6  -8.2 211  32 300.4 300.9 285.1 309.4  2.94
 9  600  4229 -10.2 -22.5  36 12.3 -13.4 222  35 304.3 304.5 284.4 307.7  1.04
10  550  4896 -12.7 -28.7  25 16.0 -16.2 235  44 309.0 309.1 285.8 311.2  0.65
11  500  5617 -17.5 -29.7  34 12.2 -19.8 240  49 311.7 311.9 286.7 314.0  0.65
12  450  6397 -23.2 -35.6  31 12.4 -25.0 243  54 314.1 314.2 287.3 315.5  0.41
13  400  7247 -29.6 -42.7  27 13.1 -30.9 244  63 316.5 316.6 287.9 317.3  0.22
14  350  8186 -36.5 -46.3  36  9.8 -37.2 245  76 319.5 319.5 288.8 320.1  0.17
15  300  9235 -44.9 -51.8  46  6.9 -45.2 245  93 322.1 322.1 289.5 322.5  0.11
16  250 10430 -53.0 -59.4  46  6.4 -53.1 246 100 327.3 327.3 291.0 327.5  0.05
17  200 11847 -58.2 -64.1  46  5.9 -58.3 248 103 340.6 340.7 294.5 340.8  0.03
18  150 13655 -59.0 -71.5  18 12.5 -59.2 255  91 368.4 368.4 300.3 368.5  0.02
19  100 16151 -64.9 -79.5  12 14.6 -65.1 258  68 402.2 402.2 305.5 402.3  0.01
TRP                                             0                       

[BullCityWx]

Ya 850s are above zero this run for Charlotte by 96 hrs

Date: 4 day AVN valid 18Z MON 10 JAN 11
Station: KCLT
Latitude:   35.22
Longitude: -80.93
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   186                                                                 
SFC  997   206  -0.9  -1.9  92  1.1  -1.3  49  12 272.5 273.0 272.0 281.5  3.32
 2  950   593  -4.3  -4.5  98  0.2  -4.3  57  20 272.9 273.3 271.6 280.7  2.88
 3  900  1020  -2.0  -2.3  98  0.3  -2.1  89  19 279.5 280.1 276.4 289.4  3.58
 4  850  1477   0.1  -0.1  98  0.2   0.0 133  16 286.3 287.0 280.8 298.9  4.46
 5  800  1963  -0.5  -0.7  99  0.2  -0.6 165  28 290.6 291.4 282.9 303.7  4.55
 6  750  2479  -0.8  -1.0  99  0.2  -0.9 183  43 295.7 296.5 285.2 309.6  4.74
 7  700  3029  -2.3  -2.4  99  0.2  -2.4 208  40 299.9 300.8 286.6 313.7  4.57
 8  650  3613  -7.2  -7.5  98  0.3  -7.3 213  35 300.8 301.5 285.7 311.1  3.35
 9  600  4233 -10.3 -22.4  37 12.1 -13.4 220  37 304.2 304.4 284.4 307.6  1.06
10  550  4900 -12.7 -30.3  21 17.6 -16.3 235  45 309.0 309.1 285.7 310.9  0.56
11  500  5620 -17.6 -29.6  34 12.1 -19.9 241  49 311.6 311.8 286.7 313.9  0.66
12  450  6400 -23.1 -36.1  30 12.9 -25.0 243  55 314.2 314.2 287.3 315.5  0.39
13  400  7251 -29.5 -43.3  25 13.9 -30.9 245  65 316.7 316.7 287.9 317.4  0.21
14  350  8191 -36.3 -46.6  34 10.3 -37.1 246  79 319.8 319.8 288.9 320.4  0.17
15  300  9240 -44.8 -51.7  46  7.0 -45.1 245  95 322.3 322.3 289.6 322.7  0.11
16  250 10436 -53.0 -59.1  47  6.1 -53.2 246 102 327.3 327.3 291.0 327.5  0.05
17  200 11853 -58.2 -64.0  48  5.7 -58.3 248 104 340.5 340.5 294.5 340.7  0.04
18  150 13659 -59.2 -71.5  19 12.3 -59.4 255  91 368.1 368.1 300.2 368.2  0.02
19  100 16156 -65.0 -79.3  12 14.3 -65.1 258  67 402.2 402.2 305.5 402.3  0.01
TRP                                             0                              
WND                                             0                              

[Cheeznado]

18Z GFS soundings for ATL say a warm nose of 4C at 850 comes in here at 12Z- so literally this would mean 3-4" of snow and then a quarter inch of sleet/ice.

[rduwx]

Per the 18z gfs this is a mixed bag of everything at RDU.

[WhiteoutWX]

GFS just overall looks disorganized with its precip and thermal fields. I cant say it looks wrong though given how the wave will be shearing by the time precip is entering NC.

[beanskip]

Lovely.

(You have PM).

18Z GFS soundings for ATL say a warm nose of 4C at 850 comes in here at 12Z- so literally this would mean 3-4" of snow and then a quarter inch of sleet/ice.

[triadwx]

Gotta love the 18z GFS runs</sarcasm>.

[snowman22]

I know some people might be mad at me but im hoping for a slight, slight south trend so we in South Alabama and Northern Florida could get some snow.

[Weather Czar]

18Z GFS soundings for ATL say a warm nose of 4C at 850 comes in here at 12Z- so literally this would mean 3-4" of snow and then a quarter inch of sleet/ice.

GFS is all on it's own compared to other models. Really have not confidence in its solutions in the medium range. inside 48 hours its alot better than at day 4 and 5, IMO

[WeatherNC]

Anyone wanna chime in on the temp profiles the 18z is spitting out? Not to worried but it certainly looks more icy for a lot of folks in NC and SC.

Calling BS on this for obvious reasons, not likely to happen given continuity from a more accurate model...

[snowlover91]

GFS is all on it's own compared to other models. Really have not confidence in its solutions in the medium range. inside 48 hours its alot better than at day 4 and 5, IMO

Agreed, the GFS is very good inside 72 hours but in the 84-132 hour timeframe it is inferior to the Euro/Canadian. Even the NAM at hour 84 looks like the Euro compared to the GFS. I think the GFS will gradually catch on as we get closer to the event.

[rduwx]

I know some people might be mad at me but im hoping for a slight, slight south trend so we in South Alabama and Northern Florida could get some snow.

I'm not mad at you....Anyone here that says they aren't looking out for there own back yard is not being honest.

[Gastonwxman]

Yep. 18z is just being itself in its own oddball fashion. Like some folks, I really only pay attention to the 0z and 12z runs from GFS since you seem to get a better idea of a setup out of them.

[HKY_WX]

GFS is really not alone in the sense it dampens out the lead wave at the end. All the models are doing that. It's just doing it the most which makes sense as it has a tendency to shear out southern stream systems to fast. If you look at the gfs and euro aloft, there are not a lot of differences except for this. THe trend IMO will favor a stronger system as we head closer, though.

[georgiawx11]

Agreed, the GFS is very good inside 72 hours but in the 84-132 hour timeframe it is inferior to the Euro/Canadian. Even the NAM at hour 84 looks like the Euro compared to the GFS. I think the GFS will gradually catch on as we get closer to the event.

Well, we are getting very close to being within 72 hours right ? 40% chance of precip here on Sunday afternoon.