BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Actually, it looks like it gives almost the entire state away from the coast close to a foot of snow(more as you head west because it changes over briefly). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 And it looks like it puts down 18"+ for HSV, RMG, CHA, SW NC etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 How much does it put down for north al ? northern alabama and especially northeast alabama get smacked pretty hard with probably 12-18", although it has a very sharp cut off where totals go down to 6-8"and less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Can anyone confirm if the 12z Euro showed snow all the way to the Gulf coast and how much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Looks like the DGEX is quite a bit north from the rest of the guidance with the band of really heavy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 18z DGEX really hammers northern ms,al,ga,sc. and southern TN/NC. It is way more robust with the precip shield than the 18z GFS How accurate is this model, at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Can anyone confirm if the 12z Euro showed snow all the way to the Gulf coast and how much? I don't *THINK* it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 How accurate is this model, at this range? Unfortunately it is not very accurate at all...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I don't *THINK* it did. your right it didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Unfortunately it is not very accurate at all...... Not sure where to get the snow maps, but someone will post it eventually. At least it's gonna be nice to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 How accurate is this model, at this range? Not nearly as as accurate as the global models; however, you can sometimes read where hpc or local wfo's mention it in there afd's. So if they take a look at it, I figure it's worth it for me to look at it as well. Just another outlet to check continuity with other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 How accurate is this model, at this range? Not very much at all it is basically an extentsion of the NAM. 6z run had me with very little if any snow and now it has me geting over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I know this isn't the right thread by Knoxville is currently reporting heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 How accurate is this model, at this range? It's normally awful. For those that missed it, it's initialized with the 78 hour nam forecast..and we all know the long range nam is bad. So if most of the time it is initialized with bad information it's not going to be very accurate. Fun to look at though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 FWIW, the 18z is back to dumping the mother lode deep into the CONUS. Has yet another big SE winter storm for the following weekend, followed by even colder air. This run maintains the PNA ridge for the duration. Prior runs recently have had a trough into Western Canada signaling a warm up. Big ice and snow storms followed by prolonged extreme cold. Now that's what I'd love to see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's normally awful. For those that missed it, it's initialized with the 78 hour nam forecast..and we all know the long range nam is bad. So if most of the time it is initialized with bad information it's not going to be very accurate. Fun to look at though. I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 your right it didn't That's confusing. I was hearing from some with the paid version it did from coastal Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle. Impossible for me to tell with the free version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Ridiculous cold after the storm -- this is extracted from the new GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That's confusing. I was hearing from some with the paid version it did from coastal Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle. Impossible for me to tell with the free version. PNS isnt even close...looks like a 45 degree heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 FWIW, the 18z is back to dumping the mother lode deep into the CONUS. Has yet another big SE winter storm for the following weekend, followed by even colder air. This run maintains the PNA ridge for the duration. Prior runs recently have had a trough into Western Canada signaling a warm up. Big ice and snow storms followed by prolonged extreme cold. Now that's what I'd love to see! Man you are right, the long range 18z gfs is absolutely frigid. That would be something if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'll take it That streak of lightest amounts goes right over me I'll pass thanks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Man you are right, the long range 18z gfs is absolutely frigid. That would be something if that verified. Spits out a day with a high of 10 and a low of -3. I'm not sure we've gone below zero since January 1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 PNS isnt even close...looks like a 45 degree heavy rain. Well dang NWS Mobile/Pensacola is keeping an eye on it though LONG TERM...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS INDICATED BY THE GFS BEING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS IT RIGHT OVER BUY 42007 BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S MONDAY MORNING MEANING PRECIP WOULD BE LIQUID BUT THE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE BEING MONITORED FOR THE DOWNWARD DRIFT WE FREQUENTLY SEE IN MOS RUN-TO-RUN. NONETHELESS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE A WINDY AND RAINY 24 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I usually only give the dgex a cursory glance b/c of its extremities, but it actually makes sense at 500mb and from a historical perspective. Much more than any other model at this point. It basically holds together the southern vort as the lead and stronger wave by sliding out the northeast vortex a little quicker. This generally is a trend with models as you get closer to 00hr analysis. This therefore separates it from the 2nd trailing vort, which comes in as a separate upper low with light snows. This setup would make more climatological sense as it tends to happen after major southeast systems. You get the lead southern wave and then the trailing upper low a day later. It makes meteorological sense given the lack of a huge western NA ridge which reduces the phasing likelihood. http://raleighwx.ame...NAdgexLoop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That streak of lightest amounts goes right over me I'll pass thanks lol That would just be stupid piles of snow here!! No way that happens!! But God I wish Can't remember many storms at all recently forecast this wet, and as wet as the Canadian 5 days out, usually under estimate at this point...kind of like the GFS. If you and Jeremy need some help over the weekend let me know, got a feeling it's going to get ugly....the word is out about this place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 6:04 GSP AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Ridiculous cold after the storm -- this is extracted from the new GFS. Jesus... thats a good week period below freezing with multiple below 20 degree days. Unreal cold! I usually only give the dgex a cursory glance b/c of its extremities, but it actually makes sense at 500mb and from a historical perspective. Much more than any other model at this point. It basically holds together the southern vort as the lead and stronger wave by sliding out the northeast vortex a little quicker. This generally is a trend with models as you get closer to 00hr analysis. This therefore separates it from the 2nd trailing vort, which comes in as a separate upper low with light snows. This setup would make more climatological sense as it tends to happen after major southeast systems. You get the lead southern wave and then the trailing upper low several days later. It makes meteorological sense given the lack of a huge western NA ridge which reduces the phasing likelihood. http://raleighwx.ame...NAdgexLoop.html I completely agree. The dgex gets a bad rap and rightfully so, since it tends to over amplify system to the point of hilarity. However, in this case, the 500mb presentation looks pretty viable and makes more sense than the convoluted setup the gfs has been spitting out the past few days. Now QPF wise I would say the dgex is overdoing things, but still its placement of the highest QPF might make sense if we see a strong finger band set up similar to the December 30th, 2010 event, as well as what just took place with the Christmas Storm two weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 As long as it gives me the finger! Sorry guys.... I couldn't resist! CAE not quite as confident as some others AFD 6:20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That streak of lightest amounts goes right over me I'll pass thanks lol Same here. There is a nice light green spot right over south Bartow. BOO!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Glenn Burns from Channel 2 in ATL says Freezing Rain possible for South GA with just rain in North GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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