scoresman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I hope the people in parts of Arkansas and northern MS that might get 6-12 don't look at this inaccucrap map and not pay attention to the weather.. If this is anything like the 1988 storm expect 12 inches + in the Memphis area. But anything can happen at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 By the way guys, I changed my snow formula to measure snow accumulation as opposed to snow depth. This should show up in the GFS from here forward and the NAM as well. Here is the 18z NAm snow accumulation using 10:1 ratio compared to the snow depth which is what I was calculating. Obviously you can see the difference. Snow Accumulatio, what will be shown from here going forward Snow Depth, the old calculation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Are there any hints about the 2nd piece of energy for Monday based on the end of the NAM run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 By the way guys, I changed my snow formula to measure snow accumulation as opposed to snow depth. This should show up in the GFS from here forward and the NAM as well. Here is the 18z NAm snow accumulation using 10:1 ratio compared to the snow depth which is what I was calculating. Obviously you can see the difference. Snow Accumulatio, what will be shown from here going forward Snow Depth, the old calculation Good deal Allan....good blog today and update! Thx for your time and efforts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Post for my GA peeps, Cheeze, Dawson, Lookout, ams, daculawx, :snowman: :snowman: :snowman: This looks amazing. Those 3 words pretty much sum up where we are at right now... I seriously can not wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Post for my GA peeps, Cheeze, Dawson, Lookout, ams, daculawx, :snowman: :snowman: :snowman: This looks amazing. I don't like it looking so good this far out...but yet i do...too many model runs to go.:snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 And only ice for the foothills and rain for everyone else. Makes sense given how all the models show exactly that and not a colder solution at all. What are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 By the way guys, I changed my snow formula to measure snow accumulation as opposed to snow depth. This should show up in the GFS from here forward and the NAM as well. Here is the 18z NAm snow accumulation using 10:1 ratio compared to the snow depth which is what I was calculating. Obviously you can see the difference. Snow Accumulatio, what will be shown from here going forward Snow Depth, the old calculation Dang Allan, is that actual or an example or actual cause if so i need that accumulation line to move down a county in the NW part of MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 000FXUS64 KOHX 062100AFDOHXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN300 PM CST THU JAN 6 2011.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERNS TODAY ARE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WINTERWEATHER EVENTS THAT WILL IMPACT THE MID STATE THIS FORECASTPERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE A CLIPPER TYPE SNOW MAKER LATE TONIGHTTHROUGH FRIDAY OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST AREAS. THE SECOND WILL BE ALARGE SCALE SOUTHERN STORM SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING WIDESPREADSIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.TRANQUIL WX WAS OVER THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLYCLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVEWAS NOTED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND IT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEASTWARDTHIS EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS. MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGYALONG WITH A SURGE OF COLD AIR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COME INFOR FRIDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHEASTCOUNTIES...WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. THE NORTHPLATEAU AND PARTS OF THE HIGHLAND RIM WILL GET ABOUT 2 INCHESLATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. PRIME TIME FOR ACCUMS WILL BE FRIDAYMORNING. UPSLOPE WILL COME INTO PLAY...WITH AREAS LIKE JAMESTOWN(THE WILD CARD) REACHING 3 INCHES AND MAYBE 4. AREAS LIKENASHVILLE SHOULD COME IN WITH 1 SLUSHY INCH OR LESS...AND LITTLE ORNONE IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE THE LOWEST LAYER WILL BE TOO WARMFOR ANY ACCUMS.SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AND DRY WXIS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY.FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENTTHAT AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TX WITH AGULF COAST SURFACE LOW...AND AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING INTOTHE TN VALLEY. THIS PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A BIG WINTER WXEVENT...AND GFS/ECMWF MODELS AGREE BY PAINTING SIGNIFICANTSNOWFALL (4+ INCHES) IN MID TN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ALLSNOW THROUGH THE EVENT. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOWAND STRENGTH OF THE MID/UPPER FEATURES...THIS PATTERN COULDSUPPORT A SWATH OF SUBSTANTIAL (6+) SNOWFALL. AT THIS TIME...ITAPPEARS THE SOUTH HALF WILL BE TARGETED WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS.THE USUAL DISCLAIMERS APPLY...THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT...MODELSCAN CHANGE...AND AMOUNTS CAN VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS AN AREA EVENWHEN THINGS DO COME TOGETHER AS EXPECTED. SO IT IS IMPORTANT THATPEOPLE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERALDAYS.FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVINGFROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM ANDPROBABLE IMPULSES CIRCULATING AROUND IT...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FORSNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. MAINLY SMALL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONSWILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.BY MIDWEEK...ARCTIC AIR WILL BE OVER THE REGION WITH DRY HIGHPRESSURE. CONSENSUS IS TO UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDEDPERIOD...AND THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY VALID IF THERE IS WIDESPREADSNOW COVER BY THAT TIME. BUNDLE UP AS WE SLIP AND SLIDE INTO THEHEART OF WINTER! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 welcome to the 300 club, wosers. 301 User(s) are reading this topic 168 members, 126 guests, 7 anonymous users Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks good for you guys in Ga and SC on the nam. Too early yet to tell what it sees for the Piedmont Triad and Triangle. As in all storms, some will get the lollipop and some will get a screw job, just the details of where to be worked out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marino13882 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What are you talking about? Don't listen to the troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 BTW, Joe Bastardi is now on board the SE snow train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 BTW, Joe Bastardi is now on board the SE snow train. lol kiss of death, it'll be a OV for sure! Seriously though we are looking as good as we can get, I'm hard pressed to believe many of us will get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 BTW, Joe Bastardi is now on board the SE snow train. What did he say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flurry Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 BTW, Joe Bastardi is now on board the SE snow train. I feel better now...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhwhiz Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 BMX AFD... wow THAT`S THE SHORT TERM. ITS THE MEDIUM RANGE THAT EVERYBODY IS WANTING TO HEAR ABOUT...SO HERE GOES. MUCH TO MY AMAZEMENT...THE GFS AND THE EURO HAVE COME IN LINE VERY NICELY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...AND EVEN MORE SURPRISING...I WOULD EVEN GO SO FAR AS TO SAY THE GEM IS COMING IN LINE AS WELL. NOW WHEN I SAY IN LINE...I MEAN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS COMING IN LINE. ITS THE INTRICACIES THAT ARE GOING TO MAKE THIS EVENT DIFFICULT. BIG PICTURE...THREE MAJOR MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THE SHORTWAVE THAT BEGINS OVER CALIFORNIA AND TREKS EASTWARD... DEVELOPING THE SUNDAY-MONDAY GULF SYSTEM...ELONGATING BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY MONDAY. THIS ELONGATION WILL TAKE AWAY MOST THE ENERGY OF THE SYSTEM. UNFORTUNATELY...I BELIEVE THE WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD CAUSE MORE PROBLEMS. FOR NOW THE ONE THING THAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT SOME SORT OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS GOING TO FALL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY CLOSE TO ALL SNOW...WHICH WITH MODEL QPFS OF BETTER THAN 0.75 INCHES COULD SPELL ALMOST 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOME PART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THE PROBLEM THAT ARISES IS THESE SOUNDINGS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING FREEZING RAIN...AND 3/4 OF AN INCH OF ICE WOULD BE CRIPPLING. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY OFFICIAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECAST...BUT THIS GIVES YOU AN IDEA OF WHAT WE ARE LOOKING AT. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE REMOVED THE RAIN OR SNOW WORDING AND REPLACED IT WITH FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW. LIKE I SAID...SOME TYPE OF FROZEN PRECIP IS GOING TO FALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON SOMETHING FROZEN FALLING...AND WHATEVER IT IS...A LOT OF IT...WITH CONFIDENCE REMAINING LOW ON THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS AREA WIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TRYING TO STAY ABOVE MOSGUIDE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 What did he say? Good hit for Richmond, Va and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 BTW, Joe Bastardi is now on board the SE snow train. This has really had the markings of a southern snow (Miller A) ALL THE WAY. I have to believe it's only for subscribership or some other back yard reason that their maps cater to them. He was so late to come off his I-70 to I-80 snow event with the Christmas storm it made him look pretty silly. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 1988 storm for comparisons sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Good hit for Richmond, Va and north So the standard statement he has for any potential storm. He didn't mention the south, AL/GA/SC? They look to be pretty good spot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 i'm gonna post a blog update later. probably will be a long one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 1988 storm for comparisons sake. Robert looks to have been pounded from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 1988 storm for comparisons sake. And that doesn't do it justice. Oconee and Pickens county had no less than 13" reported anywhere to my knowledge....but it's close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 JB says a widespread storm from Tx. to the Carolinas and then up the coast (big surprise). Thinks at least 3 inches through Raleigh in I-40 corridor and as far south as I-20 with some areas possibly getting 10" and pretty much he describes it as a hybrid MillerA/B (not in those words). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 i'm gonna post a blog update later. probably will be a long one. I added links in my sig to Allan's NAM Snow Accumulation Maps to make them easy to get to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 So the standard statement he has for any potential storm. He didn't mention the south, AL/GA/SC? They look to be pretty good spot right now. I was actually kidding at first, but I read that he actually compares it to this storm, which would make my comment more fact than fiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Don't listen to the troll. He was talking about the accuweather map that was posted a couple of pages back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 New BMX AFD, 8" of snow or 3/4" of ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats_small.gif CPC thinks snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.