The Jan 9-11 Storm

[rosie]

updated my blog

http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com

Great write-up, no ice please!

[Rankin5150]

WOW!! NWS-GSP is starting to honk with their AFD. They are comparing to Jan. 1988. They mentioned a foot of snow "within realm of possibility". Take note of that JohnWow! Here it is:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[Hugo]

ILM: Too early to get excited.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE

GULF COAST SUN WILL MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST MON AND TUE.

CONFIDENCE IS STARTING TO BUILD AS ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW RUN

TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND DO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT. INFLUENCE OF COLD

DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUN WILL WEAKEN SUN NIGHT AS

MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE GULF COAST LOW. PRECIP START TIME

AND TYPE REMAIN IN QUESTION...WITH TIMING LIKELY DICTATING WHAT

FORM PRECIP TAKES INITIALLY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST A PERIOD OF

SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE START OF THE PERIOD LATE SUN NIGHT

AND MON MORNING. LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA CHANGES TO RAIN LATE

MON MORNING BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME INLAND AREAS

COULD REMAIN ALL SNOW OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN. GIVEN THAT THE

FORECAST PERIOD IS STILL 4 DAYS AWAY AND LIKELY TO CHANGE HAVE NOT

GONE INTO MUCH DETAIL OR ADDED ANY SNOW ONLY OR FREEZING RAIN.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE STORM AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA

THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW

CLIMO...DROPPING WELL BELOW CLIMO ONCE THE MON/TUE STORM EXITS.-- End Changed Discussion --

[Brick Tamland]

WOW!! NWS-GSP is starting to honk with their AFD. They are comparing to Jan. 1988. They mentioned a foot of snow "within realm of possibility". Take note of that JohnWow! Here it is:

http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off

RAH is not being nearly as bullish yet.

THUS...WHILE LIKELIHOOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION SOMETIME IN THE

MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...TOO MANY

UNKNOWNS (TIMING, DRYNESS OF SUBCLOUD LAYER, EVENTUAL TRACK OF VORT

MAX MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, INTERACTION OF SURFACE LOW WITH

OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE) TO BE DEFINITIVE ON DEFINITIVE P-TYPE AND

AMOUNT. FOR NOW WILL ADJUST MAX TEMPS DOWN MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT

MAINTAIN POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A

CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE NW HALF WITH A MIXTURE RAIN/SNOW SE.

[tnweathernut]

MRX (Morristown TN) AFD for us TN bretheren

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...ACTIVE FORECAST

PERIOD WITH MODELS RELATIVELY CLOSE IN DEPICTION OF SOUTHERN PLAINS

SHORT WAVE TROF MAKING PROGRESS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE

TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE

WITH THIS SYSTEM HUGS THE GULF COAST WITH AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDING

BACK ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. THE STAGE IS SET FOR MORE SNOW AS DEEP

MOISTURE COMPLIMENTS OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO

WILL BE LIFTED ACROSS THE FRIGID SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS

WAVE ROUNDS THE CORNER AND HEADS UP THE EAST COAST WITH THE INVERTED

SURFACE TROF REMAINING ANCHORED BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST

AREA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF

SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND SNOWFALL MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO

TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FOLLOWS THE INITIAL MID LATITUDE

CYCLONE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH MODEL DEPICTION

OF THESE SYSTEMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS TO BETTER RESOLVE

QUESTIONS ABOUT SYSTEM STRENGTH...MOISTURE DEPTH AND STORM TRACK BUT

IT APPEARS THAT THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD COULD

BE RATHER SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. HELD ONTO A

NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWFALL REGIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH FAVORS THE

HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES AS OROGRAPHICS BECOME THE MAIN SOURCE OF

LIFT AT THIS TIME. WAS ABLE TO KEEP THURSDAY DRY AT THIS POINT BUT

FORECAST CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH THIS FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD. TRENDED

TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NEW MEX MOS GUIDANCE WITH PREDOMINANT NORTHWEST

FLOW AND EXPECTED SNOW COVER.

[MotoWeatherman]

18z NAM looks a tad quicker than 12z run and has PV in new england a tad weaker and further north.

[LovingGulfLows]

Just a gut feeling. I just really hope its not an ice storm back breaker for some parts. I can deal without snow where I live. I just want anyone down in SC or GA to have to go through what we did up here in NC back in I think it was 02.

I hope you had a typo in this post.

[burgertime]

I almost passed out at my desk after reading the GSP afternoon update. Referencing 1988!!!!!

WOW!! NWS-GSP is starting to honk with their AFD. They are comparing to Jan. 1988. They mentioned a foot of snow "within realm of possibility". Take note of that JohnWow! Here it is:

http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off

Gotta give props to Robert for being all over it. This looks like it's our storm boys

[Rankin5150]

Gotta give props to Robert for being all over it. This looks like it's our storm boys

Check out hrs 30 and 36 on the 18z NAM!

EDIT: that would give us some "warm up" light snow to a dusting, before the BIG DAWG arrives.

[GreensboroWx]

You guys read too much into the forecast discussions like it's gospel. They're just offering their thoughts like many mets do on here. I dare to say the mets on here stick their necks out much more than the NWS...just the nature of the business.

This event is several days away and we'll have plenty of twists and turns before then. Just read what the mets say on here and you'll get everything you need to know. The NWS/TV Stations, etc are ALL conservative. I probably would be if I were in their shoes. There's no way they're going to predict a big snowfall this far in advance. Hell, the ones around here stuck with a "dusting to an inch" the night before the last big event, even though it was becoming obvious much more was going to fall.

RAH is not being nearly as bullish yet.

THUS...WHILE LIKELIHOOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION SOMETIME IN THE

MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...TOO MANY

UNKNOWNS (TIMING, DRYNESS OF SUBCLOUD LAYER, EVENTUAL TRACK OF VORT

MAX MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, INTERACTION OF SURFACE LOW WITH

OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE) TO BE DEFINITIVE ON DEFINITIVE P-TYPE AND

AMOUNT. FOR NOW WILL ADJUST MAX TEMPS DOWN MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT

MAINTAIN POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A

CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE NW HALF WITH A MIXTURE RAIN/SNOW SE.

[rduwx]

18z NAM looks a tad quicker than 12z run and has PV in new england a tad weaker and further north.

850 temps look ok but the 2m temps look warmer on Sunday on the 18z. Precip has not yet reached Ga. though.

EDIT: Looks good for Ga. @ 84

[david30]

I hope the people in parts of Arkansas and northern MS that might get 6-12 don't look at this inaccucrap map and not pay attention to the weather..

oh im ready and waiting, hopefully.

[MotoWeatherman]

18z NAM at 10pm Sunday has snow across the northern halfs of MS/AL and GA. Looks to be following on cue with the other models.

[burgertime]

Look @84 on the NAM looks beautiful...heavy snow starting to go into ATL.

[Brick Tamland]

You guys read too much into the forecast discussions like it's gospel. They're just offering their thoughts like many mets do on here. I dare to say the mets on here stick their necks out much more than the NWS...just the nature of the business.

This event is several days away and we'll have plenty of twists and turns before then. Just read what the mets say on here and you'll get everything you need to know. The NWS/TV Stations, etc are ALL conservative. I probably would be if I were in their shoes. There's no way they're going to predict a big snowfall this far in advance. Hell, the ones around here stuck with a "dusting to an inch" the night before the last big event, even though it was becoming obvious much more was going to fall.

Oh, I know. I was just comparing them to what GSP said in their latest update, and saying they were not being as bullish as GSP is yet.

[MotoWeatherman]

850 temps look ok but the 2m temps look warmer on Sunday on the 18z. Precip has not yet reached Ga. though.

EDIT: Looks good for Ga. @ 84

By 1am Monday 2m freezing line and 850 zero line are across central GA. .50" QPF all the way to the MS/TN border which is good.

[HWY316wx]

FFC says CAD.

FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...ATTENTION WILL TURN

TO STRONG SOUTHERN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST

COAST OF THE US. GIVEN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN LONG TERM MODELS FOR

THE 12Z SUITE THROUGH 72 HOURS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A

DEVELOPING WINTER STORM FOR THE AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO

EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE LEVELS ARE VERY HIGH AT THIS POINT IN A

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF

COAST LATE SUN WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN ITS FEATURES.

CURRENT TRACK AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALL INDICATE A LARGE AREA

OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AT SOME

POINT. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS HOW PERSISTENT COLD AIR WILL BE IN

THE SHORT TERM AS WEDGE OVER CAROLINAS TRIES TO BUILD IN AND HOW

DYNAMIC OVERALL SYSTEM BECOMES WHICH WOULD BRING WARM NOSE IN

FASTER AND GIVE US MORE THAN JUST RA/SN DETERMINATION PROBLEMS.

GIVEN CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS AND BASED ON RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE

DURING CHRISTMAS WINTER EPISODE...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE WILL SEE A

PERIOD OF -SN/-RA NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO WASHINGTON LINE SUNDAY

AFTERNOON WITH JUST -RA ELSEWHERE. WET BULB EFFECTS SHOULD ALLOW

COLUMBUS TO WASHINGTON LINE NORTHWARD TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL -SN

WITH -SN MIXING WITH -RA TO THE SOUTH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT

VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW WOULD GREATLY IMPACT

THIS SN/RA FORECAST. FURTHER COMPLICATING THE SCENARIO IS THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM NOSE ON THE GFS WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A

TRANSITION TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF

THE REGION MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE WEDGE HOLDS FIRM. UNTIL

MODELS HONE IN ON THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WITH MORE AGREEMENT...WILL JUST

INDICATE SN/RA IN SPS AND GRIDS FOR THE AREA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD

SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST MEX GUIDANCE..ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR

NORTH WHERE SN COVER MAY BECOME A FACTOR.

[MotoWeatherman]

NAM shows good snow across the northern 1/3 of MS and almost the northern half of AL and north of Macon GA by 6z. Good run so that now makes 4 models showing a very big deal.

[MotoWeatherman]

Looking at the Omega's on the NAM at 1am Monday...I'm speechless....WOW!!! Clobber time across North AL/GA.

[strongwxnc]

Yes the precip shield looks to blossom. .25" area just south of the TENN line south to cen ga and west and north west to the SC state line...

very nice

I like the NAM. It's colder than the GFS yet the precip shield is further north.. and much wetter too at 84.

Great omgea field above posted by dawson.

[Wow]

NAM much wetter than the GFS (no surprise though) and a bit slower.

[Rankin5150]

GSP has updated their forecast grids. My area starts as snow and changes later in the game to snow/sleet. The greedy part of me hopes as time goes on that conditions allow for all snow.

Hi 46 °FFriday

Night

Slight Chc

Snow

Lo 24 °FSaturday

Lo 1

Sunny

Hi 40 °FSunday

Night

Chance

Snow

Lo 26 °FMonday

Snow

Likely

Hi 35 °FMonday

Night

Snow/Sleet

Lo 27 °F

[MotoWeatherman]

NAM Atlanta sounding at 1am Monday.....SNOW

Date: 3.5 day NAM valid 6Z MON 10 JAN 11
Station: Katl
Latitude:   33.65
Longitude: -84.42
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   184                                                                 
SFC  990   263  -1.6  -1.8  98  0.2  -1.7  59  12 272.3 272.9 272.0 281.5  3.38
 2  975   386  -3.0                       60  18 272.1                        
 3  950   591  -4.5  -4.8  98  0.3  -4.6  66  26 272.6 273.1 271.3 280.3  2.81
 4  925   801  -4.7                       78  32 274.5                        
 5  900  1017  -2.9  -3.2  98  0.2  -3.0  85  29 278.5 279.1 275.5 287.8  3.36
 6  875  1241  -1.3                       94  24 282.4                        
 7  850  1472  -0.8  -0.9  99  0.1  -0.9 112  21 285.3 286.1 280.1 297.3  4.21
 8  825  1711  -1.1                      129  22 287.5                        
 9  800  1956  -1.9  -1.9 100  0.0  -1.9 145  25 289.1 289.9 281.8 301.1  4.15
10  775  2208  -2.4                      159  28 291.3                        
11  750  2469  -2.9  -2.9 100  0.0  -2.9 168  33 293.4 294.1 283.5 305.4  4.10
12  725  2737  -3.2                      176  40 295.9                        
13  700  3015  -3.2  -3.6  97  0.3  -3.4 186  47 298.9 299.7 285.9 311.5  4.20
14  675  3303  -3.4                      195  53 301.8                        
15  650  3601  -3.9  -4.1  98  0.2  -4.0 204  61 304.5 305.4 288.1 317.8  4.33
16  625  3911  -4.6                      210  67 307.2                        
17  600  4232  -5.8  -6.0  98  0.2  -5.9 215  72 309.4 310.2 289.4 322.1  4.06
18  575  4564  -7.2                      220  75 311.6                        
19  550  4910  -8.8  -9.1  98  0.3  -8.9 225  77 313.6 314.3 290.2 324.8  3.49
20  525  5269 -10.8                      228  77 315.4                        
21  500  5643 -13.1 -13.6  96  0.5 -13.3 230  76 317.0 317.6 290.5 325.8  2.68
22  475  6032 -15.9                      229  76 318.3                        

[burgertime]

The SV NAM snow map has ATL in 4-8 by 84...but it's kind of hard to tell on that map, if ATL isn't in it, it's damn close.

[strongwxnc]

I concur after looking at the WW snowfall depth maps. maybe 3-6" range.....Hard to read.

The SV NAM snow map has ATL in 4-8 by 84...but it's kind of hard to tell on that map, if ATL isn't in it, it's damn close.

[MotoWeatherman]

NAM sounding for Birmingham at 10pm Sunday....More than likely all snow per NAM

Date: 81 hour NAM valid 3Z MON 10 JAN 11
Station: Kbhm
Latitude:   33.57
Longitude: -86.75
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   161                                                                 
SFC 1000   162   0.5   0.2  98  0.3   0.4  59  10 273.7 274.4 273.6 284.2  3.89
 2  975   363  -0.8                       67  18 274.3                        
 3  950   571  -1.8  -1.9 100  0.0  -1.9  78  27 275.3 275.9 274.0 284.9  3.50
 4  925   783  -1.0                       88  34 278.3                        
 5  900  1002   0.2   0.2 100  0.1   0.2  87  29 281.8 282.5 278.5 293.8  4.30
 6  875  1228   0.2                       98  24 284.0                        
 7  850  1460  -0.2  -0.2 100  0.0  -0.2 110  22 285.9 286.7 280.7 298.4  4.42
 8  825  1699  -0.5                      123  23 288.0                        
 9  800  1945  -0.7  -0.7 100  0.0  -0.7 133  25 290.4 291.2 282.8 303.6  4.55
10  775  2199  -1.3                      143  26 292.4                        
11  750  2460  -1.8  -1.9 100  0.0  -1.9 155  29 294.6 295.4 284.4 307.7  4.45
12  725  2730  -2.0                      167  32 297.2                        
13  700  3009  -2.6  -2.7  99  0.2  -2.6 177  37 299.6 300.5 286.4 313.1  4.47
14  675  3297  -3.2                      185  45 302.0                        
15  650  3595  -4.1  -4.3  98  0.3  -4.2 191  52 304.4 305.2 287.9 317.5  4.27
16  625  3905  -5.1                      196  59 306.6                        
17  600  4225  -6.2  -6.4  98  0.3  -6.3 202  66 309.0 309.7 289.1 321.3  3.94
18  575  4557  -7.3                      206  71 311.4                        
19  550  4903  -8.8  -9.1  97  0.3  -8.9 211  76 313.6 314.3 290.2 324.8  3.48
20  525  5262 -10.5                      215  80 315.8                        
21  500  5636 -12.9 -13.1  98  0.2 -13.0 218  81 317.3 317.9 290.7 326.5  2.79
22  475  6025 -15.5                      218  80 318.8                        
23  450  6431 -18.5 -19.8  89  1.3 -18.8 217  80 320.0 320.4 290.6 326.0  1.77

[burgertime]

GSP has updated their forecast grids. My area starts as snow and changes later in the game to snow/sleet. The greedy part of me hopes as time goes on that conditions allow for all snow.

The one good thing is that unlike that Feb.(?) storm last year the big snow will be during the day it looks like and the sleet wouldn't have as much chance to kill our totals. I think we get all snow but that is just me being a weenie I suppose.

[flurry]

From BMX:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

232 PM CST THU JAN 6 2011

ALZ011>015-017>050-071100-

AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-

CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-

JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-

PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-

TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-

232 PM CST THU JAN 6 2011

...CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN A WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS CENTRAL

ALABAMA THIS WEEKEND...

WHILE WINTER WEATHER IS A RARITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES...THIS

WINTER HAS BEEN ANYTHING BUT NORMAL. THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS

CONDUCIVE FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH A COLD UPPER

TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET

STREAM. SIMILAR TO THE WINTER WINTER WEATHER EVENT ON CHRISTMAS

WEEKEND...THE WEATHER MODELS ARE PREDICTING A SURFACE LOW TO FORM

IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL PULL GULF MOISTURE

NORTHWARD AND COLD AIR SOUTHWARD AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF

MEXICO. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SEE A

VARIETY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT COULD START AS EARLY AS SUNDAY

MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL

ALABAMA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TO LAST

THROUGH MONDAY.

[HWY316wx]

Post for my GA peeps, Cheeze, Dawson, Lookout, ams, daculawx, :snowman: :snowman: :snowman:

This looks amazing.

[DaculaWeather]

New Special Weather Statement FFC Now talking accumulating snow, including Friday