Amos83 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 If things trend the way they are, does anyone think Watches could be issued as early as tomorrow ? Knowing how the FFC is I'd said no way.... probably more like Saturday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 ILM's new forecast is out, not their disco yet though. They're trending cooler, but not buying into the longer duration. CAE has rain/snow through the day Tuesday, while ILM has it ending as all rain Monday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 So, it is time for FFC to S&%t or get off the pot. Now they cannot really use the "there is too much model disagreement" excuse, because in actuality there is not that much difference any more. The POP will not be 50%, and it is not going to be rain. Cheez, my thoughts exactly, but your thoughts on the matter are much more educated than, so help me. I am trying to see if there is a way for us to get too much WAA and get us just warm enough to go to liquid. It happens all too often here. I have a hard time seeing that happen, but again, my model reading skills are weak. Unless I am missing something, I have no idea why FFC is still on the pot. 72 hrs out and really good model agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Not from FFC they won't. We'll be under a Winter Weather Advisory until there's 5" on the ground. LMAO. You know them WAY too well !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This is hawt Thank you Robert updated my blog http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Cheez, my thoughts exactly, but your thoughts on the matter are much more educated than, so help me. I am trying to see if there is a way for us to get too much WAA and get us just warm enough to go to liquid. It happens all too often here. I have a hard time seeing that happen, but again, my model reading skills are weak. Unless I am missing something, I have no idea why FFC is still on the pot. 72 hrs out and really good model agreement. IMHO they should still be a bit on the pot....system is still in the PAC, while the models are great who knows what might happen come Saturday afternoon in TX....but then again they should probably be setting the tone that WWA or WSW could be coming down the pipe in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Accuweather has the storm going up the coast and hitting the northeast. Surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wow I am kinda suprised with FFC they have changed my forecast for tonight to 50% chance of Snow and Snow Likely tomorrow? haha I dont even know if I would go that far ha cant wait to read the discssion of the weekend event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Could the snow actually start on Sunday afternoon ? FFC has me with a 40% chance of Rain/Snow for Sunday and 70% snow for Sun night. I was thinking though that the snow wouldn't start until Monday ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Could the snow actually start on Sunday afternoon ? FFC has me with a 40% chance of Rain/Snow for Sunday and 70% snow for Sun night. I was thinking though that the snow wouldn't start until Monday ? You thought that after reading everyone's comments today. Scan back a few pages... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 You thought that after reading everyone's comments today. Scan back a few pages... Oh ok. WOW. So we could be just 72 hours away from this thing starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Accuweather has the storm going up the coast and hitting the northeast. Surprise. Jesus Christ, typical Accuweather map, paint the NE wit hall the snow and just don't give a crap about the SE...I can see it now, "It doesn't ever get cold south of VA just give them ice". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 IMHO they should still be a bit on the pot....system is still in the PAC, while the models are great who knows what might happen come Saturday afternoon in TX....but then again they should probably be setting the tone that WWA or WSW could be coming down the pipe in a few days. Not expecting them to put any watches out yet, but I would think an AFD that mentions the potential that lies ahead without saying "too much uncertainty in modeling" or "will pass on to night shft". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Accuweather has the storm going up the coast and hitting the northeast. Surprise. And only ice for the foothills and rain for everyone else. Makes sense given how all the models show exactly that and not a colder solution at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 updated my blog http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com Again, thank you so much Foothills for helping me understand what is going to potentially happen. I am a little excited here on the coast, should I be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Jesus Christ, typical Accuweather map, paint the NE wit hall the snow and just don't give a crap about the SE...I can see it now, "It doesn't ever get cold south of VA just give them ice". I think the DGEX is the only model that has shown the really heavy stuff that far NW. At least they throw I85 a bone with "ice". LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 313 PM EST THU JAN 6 2011 LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/ THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE A MESS...WITH CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY OUT OF SYNC WITH TIMING AND TRACK...ALTHOUGH THEY APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY TRYING TO CLOSE IN ON A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH THE SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. POPS BEGINNING AS SLIGHT CHANCE...THEN INCREASING TO CHANCE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS BY MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. BIG QUESTION REMAINS AS TO PRECIP TYPE AND TIMING WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL TEMPS APPEAR TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MIXED PRECIP AT THE ONSET...WITH MIXED EVENT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. 850 ZERO LINE STARTS OFF SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...SETTING UP JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS MONDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW WARM NOSE ALOFT MOVING INTO THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL COUNTIES BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH NORTHERN COUNTIES STILL BELOW FREEZING ALOFT. TOP DOWN TOOL GIVES A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. MORE OF A SNOW EVENT ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. EVEN IF THIS DOES HOLD TRUE...ITS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN ANY ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...MONDAY MORNING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE KIND OF MESSY. DURING THE DAY MONDAY TEMPS WARM UP ENOUGH ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL TO TURN MUCH OF THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN...WHILE ACROSS THE NORTH MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET EVENT DURING THE DAY. AS FOR TEMPS...MUCH OF THE REGION MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK ON MONDAY AS PRECIP...COLD ADVECTION...AND CLOUDS INHIBIT ANY HEATING. SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE STILL AROUND. QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AT THAT POINT. EVEN SO...COULD SEE ANOTHER MIXED EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS SYSTEM EXITS. DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY. TO END WITH...I DO WANT TO REITERATE THAT THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SUNDAY-TUESDAY SYSTEM. FURTHER FINE TUNING OF THE FORECAST IS SURE TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24/48/72 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Accuweather has the storm going up the coast and hitting the northeast. Surprise. :arrowhead: :arrowhead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Are you questioning the Accuracyweather site? tsk tsk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Accuweather has the storm going up the coast and hitting the northeast. Surprise. They were able to nail DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, NYC, Boston with heavy snow. Ice if you have a southern drawl. That's a success in Accuweather's book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Latest GSP AFD Latest RAH AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The Thu 12Z Euro has a whopping ~6-7" of snow for ATL area based on qpf of ~0.70" and 850's that are mainly in the -2 to -4C range. The snow starts ~8-10 PM Sun evening and lasts until ~8-10 AM Mon, a nice 12 hour event if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GSP: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THU...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EARLY WEEK WINTER STORM ACROSS THE CWFA. NOW ALL 12Z OPS RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS AND GEM SHOW A MILLER A TYPE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND TUE. THE LOW TAKES A SLOW TRACK FROM THE LA COAST SUN EVENING...REACHING CAPE HATTERAS BY LATE TUE. DEEP MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT MOVE INTO THE AREA SUN NITE AND CONTINUES ON MONDAY. THIS LIFT MOVES EAST MON NITE. HOWEVER... DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA MON NITE AND FINALLY MOVES NE OF THE AREA TUE. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF A NEAR ZERO ISOTHERMAL LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE H85 ZERO LINE DOES MOVE NORTH INTO THE CWFA. HOWEVER... THIS COULD BE OVERDONE IF DYNAMIC COOLING AFFECTS TAKE OVER. THIS IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE THE JANUARY 1988 SNOW STORM WHERE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVED THROUGH THE GULF AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINED OVER THE AREA...EVEN THO SYNOPTIC LIFT WAS WEAK. THIS PRODUCED A LARGE AREA OF 1 FOOT ACCUMS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER THIS MUCH SNOW DEVELOPS...HOWEVER IT IS IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. I HAVE LIKELY POP MOVING IN SUN NITE AND CONTINUING THRU MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN SNOW ACROSS ALL THE CWFA SUN NITE...WITH SLEET MIXING IN SOUTH OF I-85 DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS P-TYPE PATTERN CONTINUES MON NITE AND TUE AS PRECIP ENDS FROM THE SW. THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NW FLOW SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES TUE NITE THRU THU. EVEN WITH A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPS AND QPF...WHICH I HAVE TAKEN...SNOWFALL WELL ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL THE CWFA SUN NITE THRU TUE...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES THRU THU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 My afternoon update. I try to explain synoptically all the players on the field. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/afternoon-update-on-southeast-winter-weather-threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bta0812 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 RDU is gonna lose on this one probably. Oh well, maybe next weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I almost passed out at my desk after reading the GSP afternoon update. Referencing 1988!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Have you guys really forgotten the storm from just two weeks ago? It is unbelievably early to be weenieing out and saying "oh well this is a bust". The s/ws aren't even in the data sampling network yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I hope the people in parts of Arkansas and northern MS that might get 6-12 don't look at this inaccucrap map and not pay attention to the weather.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 RDU is gonna lose on this one probably. Oh well, maybe next weekend! According to who? Certainly not to most of ther mets on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bta0812 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 They know much better than me. I for some reason have a gut feeling. Not whining, just saying. I think we will get snow but not as heavy as the western part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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