WXinCanton Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This is the 12z EC 850 track based off of the wind barb maps from Allan's site, almost identical to the 0z run. So north of that track would be the best precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Looks like that track goes right through the Birmingham and Atlanta metro areas, as well as Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 that is pretty much Jan 88 over again in CAE, although 88 had less ice, mostly Snow/Sleet I had just moved to Charlotte from Ohio when this storm hit..my first southern snow Hope most of that works out, but I hope you don't get the ice. You and Jose might be sitting in the dark. It is 49 and sunny here. Hardly looks like an historic cold might be coming, but it appears to be on it's way. Goofy gives me zrain, sleet, snow, zrain, rain and drizzle according to bufkit, lol. Fun times ahead. Tony I'm looking forward to a nice sleet/ice storm topped with a couple inches of snow Jose won't be around for this as he has left until next year..lol All the winter possibilities rolled into one long duration storm...Fun times ahead is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This is the 12z EC 850 track based off of the wind barb maps from Allan's site, almost identical to the 0z run. it is pretty weak though until it is well offshore http://raleighwx.ame...0mbWinds096.gif I think what people are missing is that the low IS going to weaken as it moves east, the southern stream s/w is getting stretched and sheared out by the confluent flow in the east thanks to the big 500mb low over NEw England. So that isnt really a surpise. What we are waiting on here in eastern NC is the trough currently in the Gulf of Alasaka. It will move on shore into British Columbia tomorrow eveining, drop down the Rockies and feed into the dying southern stream s/w. Then we see precip regenerate over the Carolinas later Monday and Monday night. It will be an agonizing wait for us Sunday night and Monday. WHile N Ga, east TN, upstate SC, and western NC are getting good snow, we wont really get into good snow till later MOnday once the northern stream energy dives in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 GSP starting to post HWO's! http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NCZ070&warncounty=NCC071&firewxzone=NCZ070&local_place1=Belmont+NC&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Didn't see anyone mention it but at 222 the Euro has another hit for us in Carolinas. This is a beautiful pattern we are in and this first big snow might be the start of coming close to getting records this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 THis is a pretty straight forward setup other than the trailing s/w. IMO i still think we're going to see some changes in one of two ways. 1) The STJ wave continues to be the main player and trends stronger over the next 3 days similar to the last system. This separates the streams and brings in the second as a completely separate upper low mid-week. 2)We see these systems meld together where the lead wave dampens only out to be re energized by the trailing s/w. Option 1 leads to a situation similar to December 2002 setup where there was ice in NC. THe only issue this go around is the air mass is much colder, so we're taling snow in NC and likely a ice/sleet/snow in georgia/south carolina. This situation would also lead to impressive qpf totals. This will also not favor a true miller a scenario. More of a hybrid which means A LOT of places will fight sleet/freezing rain. Probably only the mountains,foothills, and western piedmont N of I40 would be safe. Option 2 would lead to a weak lead wave with lower qpf totals. The slp would be more of a miller a solution where the low rides along the northern gom and then off of savannah. This low is then reinvigorated by the 2nd wave. This scenario favors mostly snow over central/N ga into NC. This scenario would also leave a gap over TN where they get left behind by the energy transfer to the coastal low. It's really a late phase. The amount of snow in NC depends on how much phasing results. IMO, the pattern overwhelmingly favors Option 1. There's no large western NA ridge to increase the phasing opportunities that we saw over Christmas and send this SLP straight North off of the atl coast. I would look back to dec 02 pattern.You probably won't see the models catch onto the true nature of this system until the clipper system tomorrow night phases w/ the vortex over the northeast and we see the pacific cutoff come ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Question for Robert or Allan, do you see this affecting southern Va or will the cut off be a sharp one? Seems to me with a dying s/w, the cold air will dry this out pretty quickly for areas north of Charlotte if this track persists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Didn't see anyone mention it but at 222 the Euro has another hit for us in Carolinas. This is a beautiful pattern we are in and this first big snow might be the start of coming close to getting records this winter. Please don't. One storm at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think what people are missing is that the low IS going to weaken as it moves east, the southern stream s/w is getting stretched and sheared out by the confluent flow in the east thanks to the big 500mb low over NEw England. So that isnt really a surpise. What we are waiting on here in eastern NC is the trough currently in the Gulf of Alasaka. It will move on shore into British Columbia tomorrow eveining, drop down the Rockies and feed into the dying southern stream s/w. Then we see precip regenerate over the Carolinas later Monday and Monday night. It will be an agonizing wait for us Sunday night and Monday. WHile N Ga, east TN, upstate SC, and western NC are getting good snow, we wont really get into good snow till later MOnday once the northern stream energy dives in. Always love reading your insight......man but I hate having to wait for precip to break out! Been there done that many times, sometimes it does, sometimes it don't.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That vortex is long gone and serves to keep the southern stream on a good track, climo speaking. Its really not hurting us I don't think, it wil act to keep this from going to DC. In my opinon, NC and northern SC will do about as well as any place else, I'm not going by the verbatim output either (alhtough .75" pretty widespread is nothing to sneeze at). With the lingering inverted trough, NC may in fact be the snowiest state when all is said and done. I really like the trends, and couldn't have hoped for better run. I too agree that the vortex is not weakening the southern wave. The wave diving into the Rockies is what's killing the southern wave on the backside. If we didn't have that wave diving in, the southern wave would not be weakening as it is. All in all, I think we are going to be fine in the Carolinas with moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Please don't. One storm at a time. OK, OK I'll try avoid it! So how much for ATL? I kid I kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 So north of that track would be the best precip? Typically just north of the 850 low track is the best snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 I too agree that the vortex is not weakening the southern wave. The wave diving into the Rockies is what's killing the southern wave on the backside. If we didn't have that wave diving in, the southern wave would not be weakening as it is. All in all, I think we are going to be fine in the Carolinas with moisture. On the contrary, its the PV that kills the wave. The energy in the Rockies actually phases in later and pulls it back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bta0812 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Okay I know this is completely off topic. Ban me if you must, all I do is read the majority of the time on here but Andrew Luck is staying at Stanford(just announced), which means my Panthers suck again so SOMEBODY BETTER GIVE ME SOME FRIGGIN SNOW! and A LOT OF IT> I needed to vent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 So, it is time for FFC to S&%t or get off the pot. Now they cannot really use the "there is too much model disagreement" excuse, because in actuality there is not that much difference any more. The POP will not be 50%, and it is not going to be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 updated my blog http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think what people are missing is that the low IS going to weaken as it moves east, the southern stream s/w is getting stretched and sheared out by the confluent flow in the east thanks to the big 500mb low over NEw England. So that isnt really a surpise. What we are waiting on here in eastern NC is the trough currently in the Gulf of Alasaka. It will move on shore into British Columbia tomorrow eveining, drop down the Rockies and feed into the dying southern stream s/w. Then we see precip regenerate over the Carolinas later Monday and Monday night. It will be an agonizing wait for us Sunday night and Monday. WHile N Ga, east TN, upstate SC, and western NC are getting good snow, we wont really get into good snow till later MOnday once the northern stream energy dives in. THIS has Triangle area screwjob written all over it...your analysis and Brandon's Option 2. Like you posted the other day, the Dec. 2000 event still is a painful reminder of how critical these "timing" events are. If the lead S/W is strong enough, but not too strong, we could get light precip here as a result of that energy, at least. Then hopefully the timing will work out for the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Typically just north of the 850 low track is the best snow. Wow, well I think Atlanta is maybe 5 miles north of that track lol. Can't get much closer to being "just north" of the 850 low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 So yeah. Was in a training meeting when the euro came out... A few pages later, I see what life is going to be like over the next few days.. Model watching madness Great disco on the euro folks. Much props! OK, OK I'll try avoid it! So how much for ATL? I kid I kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This is exactly where February 2004 was in this time frame, almost the same qpf too. OK, I'm hoping for a repeat, but to me, this one has limitations on the high end. I think the vast majority of the precip is going to come from the initial wave and sfc low going up the SE coast. As currently progged, I don't see the trailing upper wave that's diving through the Rockies aiding much in the precip...that thing would have to really keep digging and slow down to give us good moisture, and I don't see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 On the contrary, its the PV that kills the wave. The energy in the Rockies actually phases in later and pulls it back in. Agree to disagree. My point is that if there was ridging behind the southern wave, it would not be weakening like it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 FFC is still trying to get it together for my area...LOL...still all that Rain/Snow language plus they give me a 60% chance tomorrow...kind of bold if you ask me. This Afternoon: Partly sunny, with a high near 45. West wind between 5 and 10 mph. Tonight: A 30 percent chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Northwest wind around 5 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. West wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 36. West wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 20. Sunday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday: Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Latest from HPC http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 THis is a pretty straight forward setup other than the trailing s/w. IMO i still think we're going to see some changes in one of two ways. 1) The STJ wave continues to be the main player and trends stronger over the next 3 days similar to the last system. This separates the streams and brings in the second as a completely separate upper low mid-week. 2)We see these systems meld together where the lead wave dampens only out to be re energized by the trailing s/w. Option 1 leads to a situation similar to December 2002 setup where there was ice in NC. THe only issue this go around is the air mass is much colder, so we're taling snow in NC and likely a ice/sleet/snow in georgia/south carolina. This situation would also lead to impressive qpf totals. This will also not favor a true miller a scenario. More of a hybrid which means A LOT of places will fight sleet/freezing rain. Probably only the mountains,foothills, and western piedmont N of I40 would be safe. Option 2 would lead to a weak lead wave with lower qpf totals. The slp would be more of a miller a solution where the low rides along the northern gom and then off of savannah. This low is then reinvigorated by the 2nd wave. This scenario favors mostly snow over central/N ga into NC. This scenario would also leave a gap over TN where they get left behind by the energy transfer to the coastal low. It's really a late phase. The amount of snow in NC depends on how much phasing results. IMO, the pattern overwhelmingly favors Option 1. There's no large western NA ridge to increase the phasing opportunities that we saw over Christmas and send this SLP straight North off of the atl coast. I would look back to dec 02 pattern.You probably won't see the models catch onto the true nature of this system until the clipper system tomorrow night phases w/ the vortex over the northeast and we see the pacific cutoff come ashore. Thank you so much! I was really wondering about that second piece and how it was working in, along with the next big piece possible late week. This explains it. The ptype issues and where they came from. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wow, FFC says 70% chance of snow and 30 degrees for my area Sun night. I don't ever remember them giving me a 70% chance of snow 3 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 So, it is time for FFC to S&%t or get off the pot. Now they cannot really use the "there is too much model disagreement" excuse, because in actuality there is not that much difference any more. The POP will not be 50%, and it is not going to be rain. I was thinking earlier about model agreement as well.....it seems like it has been FOREVER since we've had this type of model agreement for a winter event....I can't remember the last time. I know things can still change, but we are getting to the point inside of 72 hrs where all model agreement has to be one hell of a good sign. Usually, there's one sending the low to Cuba, or one going with the low near Des Moines or crap like that. I'm pumped with this type of model agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 If things trend the way they are, does anyone think Watches could be issued as early as tomorrow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wow, FFC says 70% chance of snow and 30 degrees for my area Sun night. I don't ever remember them giving me a 70% chance of snow 3 days away. congrats.. still at 30% here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 If things trend the way they are, does anyone think Watches could be issued as early as tomorrow ? Not from FFC they won't. We'll be under a Winter Weather Advisory until there's 5" on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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