david30 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wow, you must have really missed out on that snowstorm in Dec 2008 that brought over 6 inches to much of Miss and LA. Yep too far north, im along Hwy 82 next to Ark, normally the stuff heads this way then dries up, the last few years its snowed more down south than here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12z ECMWF gives RDU 0.59 inches of QPF, 2mT and 850s supportive of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Nobody has mentioned it but the euro isn't far off from giving DFW a foot of snow Good grief, didn't they have like 15" of snow last winter ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The temps were close, but for a period there when it is precipitating hard, If I recall it was heavy snow in n. La and west Central Miss to southern Arka, in fact the best dynamics are squarely on you, if the temps supported it. I know JAN was right on the line for a while. Somwhere north and west of Jackson I think will get a mighty big snow from this. I surely hope so after so many near misses. Its actually a trip. JAN will issue a heavy snow warning and then we get maybe 5 mins of flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 the 12z euro does end up putting the 0.5" cut off over the NC/VA border after it's all said and done, but it's an accumulation over a nearly 2 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12z ECMWF gives RDU 0.59 inches of QPF, 2mT and 850s supportive of snow. Thanks Allan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yep too far north, im along Hwy 82 next to Ark, normally the stuff heads this way then dries up, the last few years its snowed more down south than here. Are you near Greenville ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Are you near Greenville ? Rite, Im in Greenville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 the 12z euro does end up putting the 0.5" cut off over the NC/VA border after it's all said and done, but it's an accumulation over a nearly 2 day period. What about the ratios? It seems they might be rather high on the northern fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Nobody has mentioned it but the euro isn't far off from giving DFW a foot of snow DFW got hammered by the Feb storm last year too, close to a foot if i recall, that translated well for SC'ers too. not sure if there is a parallel there but would be interesting to investigate non-the-less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Rite, Im in Greenville Hmm, well you are pretty close to the same latitude as atlanta and birmingham. I'm surprised you haven't had more than 2 inches in the last 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bta0812 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Poimen, I'm in Henderson and I was thinking the exact same thing you were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Northern Half of NC doesn't look as good as the rest of the south, but we all know the trend. If I were living in GA and SC I would still be preparing for the worst "ICE" and a lot of it. This may not be the case, but at the same time you need to know the trend is to move things farther North and West. Which would bring you guys devastating ICE amounts, and with the predicted bitter cold after the storm goes by you might be looking @ weeks 2 to 3 without power. I hope not I would greatly take zero inches of snow to spare you guys a ice storm that could possibly be as bad as any hurricane to the trees and power lines . There was an ice storm in 98 in the NE that sticks in my mind and this is what we are talking about. . Remember this is not a 12 hr storm so it will be prolonged and lighter the rain falls the more likely it is to stick and not melt due to no latent heat release and there still is a lot of qpf for y'alls area. Ok, you're really scaring me a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Hmm, well you are pretty close to the same latitude as atlanta and birmingham. I'm surprised you haven't had more than 2 inches in the last 10 years. Yep pretty funny, when DFW was getting socked last Feb I just knew it would cruise east. It got over by Shreveport and started diving south. In fact Monroe along i--20 had 5-7 inches, us maybe a dusting at most. And all the other events recently have been south. Its a shame Houston, Baton ROuge, Jackson and south avgs are higher than ours the last few years. Im hoping this storm changes things for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 DFW got hammered by the Feb storm last year too, close to a foot if i recall, that translated well for SC'ers too. not sure if there is a parallel there but would be interesting to investigate non-the-less I noticed that too and tend to go by it. If Dallas gets a good accumulating snow, central sc and sometimes even coastal areas seem to do okay also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Northern Half of NC doesn't look as good as the rest of the south, but we all know the trend. If I were living in GA and SC I would still be preparing for the worst "ICE" and a lot of it. This may not be the case, but at the same time you need to know the trend is to move things farther North and West. Which would bring you guys devastating ICE amounts, and with the predicted bitter cold after the storm goes by you might be looking @ weeks 2 to 3 without power. I hope not I would greatly take zero inches of snow to spare you guys a ice storm that could possibly be as bad as any hurricane to the trees and power lines . There was an ice storm in 98 in the NE that sticks in my mind and this is what we are talking about. . Remember this is not a 12 hr storm so it will be prolonged and lighter the rain falls the more likely it is to stick and not melt due to no latent heat release and there still is a lot of qpf for y'alls area. Actually the north "trend" has halted for now- not all storms end up farther north.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 DFW got hammered by the Feb storm last year too, close to a foot if i recall, that translated well for SC'ers too. not sure if there is a parallel there but would be interesting to investigate non-the-less I believe the report was 12.5 inches for them, with most of that falling before Feb. 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yep pretty funny, when DFW was getting socked last Feb I just knew it would cruise east. It got over by Shreveport and started diving south. In fact Monroe along i--20 had 5-7 inches, us maybe a dusting at most. And all the other events recently have been south. Its a shame Houston, Baton ROuge, Jackson and south avgs are higher than ours the last few years. Im hoping this storm changes things for us. That's weird that Dallas got pounded with snow last winter, Atlanta had a ton of snow, and you're right in the middle and got only a dusting. Well, hopefully this storm will make up for the last 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Northern Half of NC doesn't look as good as the rest of the south, but we all know the trend. If I were living in GA and SC I would still be preparing for the worst "ICE" and a lot of it. This may not be the case, but at the same time you need to know the trend is to move things farther North and West. Which would bring you guys devastating ICE amounts, and with the predicted bitter cold after the storm goes by you might be looking @ weeks 2 to 3 without power. I hope not I would greatly take zero inches of snow to spare you guys a ice storm that could possibly be as bad as any hurricane to the trees and power lines . There was an ice storm in 98 in the NE that sticks in my mind and this is what we are talking about. . Remember this is not a 12 hr storm so it will be prolonged and lighter the rain falls the more likely it is to stick and not melt due to no latent heat release and there still is a lot of qpf for y'alls area. People love to say that the models always shift NW, and usually by a good amount. How often is this actually true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I noticed that too and tend to go by it. If Dallas gets a good accumulating snow, central sc and sometimes even coastal areas seem to do okay also. Shawn...did you get a glimpse of what the QPF looks like over SC on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Shawn...did you get a glimpse of what the QPF looks like over SC on the Euro? Around exactly 1 inch for CAE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 People love to say that the models always shift NW, and usually by a good amount. How often is this actually true? Well, this year it definitely fits Nina climatology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I noticed that too and tend to go by it. If Dallas gets a good accumulating snow, central sc and sometimes even coastal areas seem to do okay also. This is one of the things we like to see in the Coastal Plain also, is DFW gets a sig hit, we usually do well too. With this kind of air mass in place at 72 hrs, I have a hard time believing a weak surface low, and even one close to the coast, well due much to modify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 People love to say that the models always shift NW, and usually by a good amount. How often is this actually true? You know, that is common with Nor Easters-- not so much lows for NC/SC=== trust me, I'm 60 miles north of the NC border and have tried to cash that chip in and it has yet to pan out. Jan 02, Feb 04, Feb 10--etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 <br />Northern Half of NC doesn't look as good as the rest of the south, but we all know the trend. If I were living in GA and SC I would still be preparing for the worst "ICE" and a lot of it. This <br /><br />may not be the case, but at the same time you need to know the trend is to move things farther North and West. Which would bring you guys devastating ICE amounts, and with the <br /><br />predicted bitter cold after the storm goes by you might be looking @ weeks 2 to 3 without power. I hope not I would greatly take zero inches of snow to spare you guys a ice storm <br /><br />that could possibly be as bad as any hurricane to the trees and power lines . There was an ice storm in 98 in the NE that sticks in my mind and this is what we are talking about. . <br /><br />Remember this is not a 12 hr storm so it will be prolonged and lighter the rain falls the more likely it is to stick and not melt due to no latent heat release and there still is a lot of qpf for <br /><br />y'alls area. <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />12z euro puts down 0.4 qpf for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Well, this year it definitely fits Nina climatology. well if it were phasing with the northern jet, probably so. I'd imagine Nina climo would favor weaker southern waves which are more easily pulled apart by a dominant northern jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Never have researched this aspect of it in depth, but the christmas storm went North and West and it was as you said a Nor' Easter. Which completely missed all of us starting 3 days out . This is a different set-up so the North west trend may not happen. But, just last night this storm was turning the corner and going up the coast and giving DC snow. You know, that is common with Nor Easters-- not so much lows for NC/SC=== trust me, I'm 60 miles north of the NC border and have tried to cash that chip in and it has yet to pan out. Jan 02, Feb 04, Feb 10--etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bta0812 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I haven't heard much talk about the expected ratios, or perhaps I missed it. If so, disregard this post. How far out from a storm do we usually have to get before feeling decently confident about the ratios, not necessarily the qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Never have researched this aspect of it in depth, but the christmas storm went North and West and it was as you said a Nor' Easter. Which completely missed all of us starting 3 days out . This is a different set-up so the North west trend may not happen. But, just last night this storm was turning the corner and going up the coast and giving DC snow. Mentally, I qualified the Christmas storm different. We had 2 inches here-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This is the 12z EC 850 track based off of the wind barb maps from Allan's site, almost identical to the 0z run. it is pretty weak though until it is well offshore http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbWinds096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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