Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Cheez, Did you men at least 0.25"? I see 0.25"+, not 0.50"+, for all but the far NE corner. I see ~0.70" qpf for KATL, all as snow. ..wow!! Woudl be biggest mod.+ Nina snow since 1894. No, by Wednesday AM all of NC has at least .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think all of us in NC can agree we would rather have the moisture shield to our south than our north at this stage, and hell even if we in Northern NC don't cash in like we did at Christmas at least we can take solace that our friends to the SOUTH are getting snow and not the usual other way around. Besides, with the xmas storm most models had me missing out to the S and E in the days leading up, after the euro dropped the storm, and everything worked out fine. Let's be patient because we have a lot of model runs to go and the s/w really isn't even being well sampled right now. Let's hope the good news continues for the deep south because generally when Atlanta suceeds, so does Charlotte etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Based off this run, anyone privy to the QPF totals for the major cities in the region? Major cities would be appreciated in TN if that's something you guys feel like doing at this point. BNA, TRI, TYS and CHA in particular. Thanks in advance for anyone that tackles this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Awesome disco guys, thanks to all you mets our there for keeping us informed! I'm going to be as nervous as a cat over water for the next three days or so! Don't you wish it were Sunday already ? Waiting is sooooooo hard. I'm always afraid that each morning I'll wake up and the models will look worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That vortex is long gone and serves to keep the southern stream on a good track, climo speaking. Its really not hurting us I don't think, it wil act to keep this from going to DC. In my opinon, NC and northern SC will do about as well as any place else, I'm not going by the verbatim output either (alhtough .75" pretty widespread is nothing to sneeze at). With the lingering inverted trough, NC may in fact be the snowiest state when all is said and done. I really like the trends, and couldn't have hoped for better run. Thx for the PBP today, you, Wow, Cheeze and others!! Robert, i'm almost ready to say me and you are going to get hammered FINALLY...but going to hold off till Saturday. A ton of similarities between GFS/Euro/Canada/Nam has me feeling more confident every run where the only outlier solutions would be the QPF and thermal profiles. General setup is there, locked and loaded! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yes. Most of our snow fall with temps around -4 at 850, and the EURO holds surface temps in the 20's bound from northern 1/3 or GA to all the western Carolinas. Thats a great storm, imo. With snow fallng most of the day, great track. I'm not sure why folks are worried on the QPF numbers printed. A typical 80's storm dropped .50 to .75" liquid equivalent, and this looks no different. If anything it could easily top 1" equivalent widespread in Ga dn the Carolinas. Pinch me, I'm dreaming. I just wish at least one model (outside of the DGEX) will show this. The 0z GFS was the wettest yet, but reverted back to the same spread as before by 6z. I feel the spirits of Ji and Widremann in me. Creepy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowforme Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I certainly don't want to offend any of the moderators by not having anything to contribute with this post but I just wanted to say that I have really enjoyed reading this thread. You all are so knowledgeable and I'm trying my best to learn. This is such an exciting time so I really hope we all get some beautiful snow. Thank you all so much for sharing your expertise with us newbies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 No, by Wednesday AM all of NC has at least .5 OK, I see. (I was looking at the period ending Tue AM.). That is a very nice dumping on nearly all of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Foothills is making me feel better. I should learn just to listen to him, RaleighWX, and Matthew East when it comes to NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The trend is good for whom? The s/w trended weaker. At best, we'd be on the northern fringe and pick up a few inches based on this trend. Colder trend, yes. More robust s/w with a healthy precip shield, no. Maybe they're all wrong and the QPF will be much more. I figured that last time for the christmas storm, but was wrong. John, I am feaing you are catching fever attm. LOL...J/K. i KNOW what you mean. OUR AREAS have been shafted SO MUCH. In any event, you will see tension in my posts at some point or another also. Praying for our foot of snow man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 12Z UKMET looks close to the Euro, surface low stays in the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 OK, I see. (I was looking at the period ending Tue AM.). That is a very nice dumping on nearly all of NC. The details will continue to change with each run from today all the way up to nowcasting time. What is encouraging is the fact that for multiple runs on multiple models its a good hit over much of the SE. At this point I don't think you could ask for anything more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think all of us in NC can agree we would rather have the moisture shield to our south than our north at this stage, and hell even if we in Northern NC don't cash in like we did at Christmas at least we can take solace that our friends to the SOUTH are getting snow and not the usual other way around. Besides, with the xmas storm most models had me missing out to the S and E in the days leading up, after the euro dropped the storm, and everything worked out fine. Let's be patient because we have a lot of model runs to go and the s/w really isn't even being well sampled right now. Let's hope the good news continues for the deep south because generally when Atlanta suceeds, so does Charlotte etc.... One of the finest posts I've ever read!! and it is so true thinking back to the 80's, when Atl got a decent snow we always got a BIG snow and most of the time so did Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 For those that have access to the paid Euro maps, could you tell me what the temps look like for the central/eastern areas in nc? Are there any temp issues or is this a cold storm for the whole state? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Another neat thing- after the storm is over the snow will stick around quite a while, on the Euro highs do not get much above freezing through all of next week here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This is exactly where February 2004 was in this time frame, almost the same qpf too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Foothills is making me feel better. I should learn just to listen to him, RaleighWX, and Matthew East when it comes to NC. I swear to God I'm blocking you before the days out. Please stop, read and learn Brick. I've been here three years and posted about 100 times total. You post 100 times per thread! Folks, this is storm mode for the next few days. Please just let the mets do their work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I just wish at least one model (outside of the DGEX) will show this. The 0z GFS was the wettest yet, but reverted back to the same spread as before by 6z. I feel the spirits of Ji and Widremann in me. Creepy. I'm still alive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Agree, you kept the faith and things are looking good. This set of models is a winner for a lot of folks on this board. Lets hope it holds. Well I've always tried to forecast based on the big pattern not the actual soundings and model out put, I look at the bigger picture and work in. I like the way this has been looking for a while now, on all the models, and the pattern fits nicely with the 1982 storm, again I like that analog even though I know its not exact for everyone..some will get more, some less. For my area where we get barely missed so many times either to the immediate north and west , or to the immediate east, I'm thinking so far this shouldn't be like that because of the deformation band and east west orientation that has been missing. thannk goodness for the tight northerly shield, or the same old would probably happen. Plus, this pivots in Ala and GA so that should keep it going for northern GA to the western halves of the Carolinas , evntually having an axis of steady snow, east to west, across Tennesse straight to NC, thats why I thnk actually NC may end up with a lot more snow that folks (and models) show. I don't pay that much attention to qpf in my area, just the pattern, because models blow it so much for the Upstate and western piedmont of NC, but this time we have good east winds, won't wastea any QPF on the dreaded 925 warm bubble, in fact, I wouldnt' be suprised to see a max of snow around western SC from this due to some weak upsloping and when the 850 low passes to the south, and the pivot plus the lee App trough that always shows up with a coastal GA storm. Its picture perfect in my opinion, and this particular storm is so large and overunning and has ample cold air. How often do we get 850s down to Macon and birmingham? Rarely! [JI] 4" events bore me. I need a foot. [/JI] You may stop right at 11". We'll see! Thx for the PBP today, you, Wow, Cheeze and others!! Robert, i'm almost ready to say me and you are going to get hammered FINALLY...but going to hold off till Saturday. A ton of similarities between GFS/Euro/Canada/Nam has me feeling more confident every run where the only outlier solutions would be the QPF and thermal profiles. General setup is there, locked and loaded! I think you'll do fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yes. Most of our snow fall with temps around -4 at 850, and the EURO holds surface temps in the 20's bound from northern 1/3 or GA to all the western Carolinas. Thats a great storm, imo. With snow fallng most of the day, great track. I'm not sure why folks are worried on the QPF numbers printed. A typical 80's storm dropped .50 to .75" liquid equivalent, and this looks no different. If anything it could easily top 1" equivalent widespread in Ga dn the Carolinas. Pinch me, I'm dreaming. this being a moderate La Niña, having anything to track, let alone get excited about has already been a big plus as far as winter storm potentials have gone. We've already had one in the books, a storm that would have accumulated 2"-4" of snow here had it fallen at night not during the middle of the day (snowfall rates were high, at times just as high as Feb 12th this year here but unable to overcome ambient and ground temperatures for sufficient accumulations on the 26th-0.2"-0.5" across the area with isolated 1" amounts in the Coastal SC Empire) I've already seen 5 calendar days this winter of trace or measurable snow/frozen precip amounts, which has already far exceeded my expectations this winter and the opportunities continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Yes. Most of our snow fall with temps around -4 at 850, and the EURO holds surface temps in the 20's bound from northern 1/3 or GA to all the western Carolinas. Thats a great storm, imo. With snow fallng most of the day, great track. I'm not sure why folks are worried on the QPF numbers printed. A typical 80's storm dropped .50 to .75" liquid equivalent, and this looks no different. If anything it could easily top 1" equivalent widespread in Ga dn the Carolinas. Pinch me, I'm dreaming. Haha so it appears. Fantastic play-by-play Robert. I believe the reason folks were worried about QPF was because of the weakening of the shortwave a few frames back, but I could be wrong. With temperatures in the 20s and having this much precipitation to work with, I can only imagine what those snow ratios end up becoming for our neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Just got back from lunch and man the Euro looks great. Still so far away that it makes me nervous as there are too many model runs to go. This would be totally amazing and I'm in the jackpot zone for GA per the Euro. At least all the models have my snow falling with temps in the 20's versus my last two snow falls happening with temps above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Alright i know most of the replies are centered GA onward, but im about 100 miles nw of jackson ms next to AR. I keep noticing all the replies about the ) line and where it ends up. With the latest models are they still showing the hit starting here and proceeding eastward. The last 7-8 years we get excited around here and it does something north south east or west of here. In fact we havent had over 2 inches of snow since 2000. A long drought. I ready for anything besides ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 This is exactly where February 2004 was in this time frame, almost the same qpf too. Oh sheet man. You have me about to pass out. That IS MY ALL TIME BEST snow storm in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wow loving the setup here, I'll take the .5 verbatim in a heartbeat with those temps. I feel Wow though, somewhere deep down you just know the screws could come at any moment and it doesn't take much. Still though I really love this and is the most I've been excited in a long time! Looks I'll be staying up for the Euro Friday and Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Alright i know most of the replies are centered GA onward, but im about 100 miles nw of jackson ms next to AR. I keep noticing all the replies about the ) line and where it ends up. With the latest models are they still showing the hit starting here and proceeding eastward. The last 7-8 years we get excited around here and it does something north south east or west of here. In fact we havent had over 2 inches of snow since 2000. A long drought. I ready for anything besides ice. Wow, you must have really missed out on that snowstorm in Dec 2008 that brought over 6 inches to much of Miss and LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 This is exactly where February 2004 was in this time frame, almost the same qpf too. As I mentioned earlier, I hope this turns out to be like a Feb 04 where the models inside of 72 hours, I believe, suddenly doubled QPF in some places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Alright i know most of the replies are centered GA onward, but im about 100 miles nw of jackson ms next to AR. I keep noticing all the replies about the ) line and where it ends up. With the latest models are they still showing the hit starting here and proceeding eastward. The last 7-8 years we get excited around here and it does something north south east or west of here. In fact we havent had over 2 inches of snow since 2000. A long drought. I ready for anything besides ice. Right now you look like you are in a good spot for rain/sleet changing to snow before ending. I'm guessing you are near the AR/LA/MS line?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Nobody has mentioned it but the euro isn't far off from giving DFW a foot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Alright i know most of the replies are centered GA onward, but im about 100 miles nw of jackson ms next to AR. I keep noticing all the replies about the ) line and where it ends up. With the latest models are they still showing the hit starting here and proceeding eastward. The last 7-8 years we get excited around here and it does something north south east or west of here. In fact we havent had over 2 inches of snow since 2000. A long drought. I ready for anything besides ice. The temps were close, but for a period there when it is precipitating hard, If I recall it was heavy snow in n. La and west Central Miss to southern Arka, in fact the best dynamics are squarely on you, if the temps supported it. I know JAN was right on the line for a while. Somwhere north and west of Jackson I think will get a mighty big snow from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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