lilj4425 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The trend is good for whom? The s/w trended weaker. At best, we'd be on the northern fringe and pick up a few inches based on this trend. Colder trend, yes. More robust s/w with a healthy precip shield, no. Cheeznado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 .44 through 18z Monday...850 temps around -5c and surface temps in the mid 20's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Not a bad trade, though. With colder air, comes higher ratios. I'd rather roll the dice with precip, than temps, personally. The trend is good for whom? The s/w trended weaker. At best, we'd be on the northern fringe and pick up a few inches based on this trend. Colder trend, yes. More robust s/w with a healthy precip shield, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Ha, Love LOVE LOVE this run for my area, sorry to sound greedy. By 108 the low is slow along SAV or CHS with the inverted trough through the Apps to coast, and still snowing moderately, verbatim. The problem is the models can't handle the qpf on this side of the storm, like its doing ok with around TX, TN, Ms and Al because it thinks the precip will outrun the dynamics. That probably won't happen, and the 5H feature is still seen, and the moisture should hold together and re-generate if anything around that time frame. This model is catching up to that idea, with each run I think we're seeing signs of it. The good news is it kep the low southern track, and the temps without wrapping too much warm advection. This would be a big snow hit from northeast of DFW to northern Miss. Al, GA and much of the Carolinas, and southern 2/3 of Tenn. It drops .75" over Upstate to here . Still snowing at 120hour...the inverted trough still there.:snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 CAE and ATL would do better w/ less ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 I can see how NC ****COULD*** miss out on a lot of moisture with this system..That confluence will more than likely destroy this system as it gets close to the SE. I hope not, but if your in NC, might not be that good of a setup for yall Indeed. Its flexing its muscle even more on this run. Not a good trend for heavy NC snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 102 .75 ATL north .5 to GSP and AVL Is that on top of the previous .5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The trend is good for whom? The s/w trended weaker. At best, we'd be on the northern fringe and pick up a few inches based on this trend. Colder trend, yes. More robust s/w with a healthy precip shield, no. With the SW weaker, it allows the next trough to continue the light snow later on, The Euro has at least .5 for all of NC except the far NE corner. If you guys get 4-6" up there and I get 7-8", no whining allowed/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 yeah, 850 RH map at 120 hours looks very nice. Ha, Love LOVE LOVE this run for my area, sorry to sound greedy. By 108 the low is slow along SAV or CHS with the inverted trough through the Apps to coast, and still snowing moderately, verbatim. The problem is the models can't handle the qpf on this side of the storm, like its doing ok with around TX, TN, Ms and Al because it thinks the precip will outrun the dynamics. That probably won't happen, and the 5H feature is still seen, and the moisture should hold together and re-generate if anything around that time frame. This model is catching up to that idea, with each run I think we're seeing signs of it. The good news is it kep the low southern track, and the temps without wrapping too much warm advection. This would be a big snow hit from northeast of DFW to northern Miss. Al, GA and much of the Carolinas, and southern 2/3 of Tenn. It drops .75" over Upstate to here . Still snowing at 120hour...the inverted trough still there.:snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The trend is good for whom? The s/w trended weaker. At best, we'd be on the northern fringe and pick up a few inches based on this trend. Colder trend, yes. More robust s/w with a healthy precip shield, no. Maybe they're all wrong and the QPF will be much more. I figured that last time for the christmas storm, but was wrong. The 4million people living in the atlanta metro..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 CAE and ATL would do better w/ less ice. Hope this run bears fruit Shawn with the less ice, and even better trends forward! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 96 hours, .5 in ATL, all snow I approve of this message! This run is a good example of how hard it is to really nail everyone in our large geographic area. Hopefully, this is the storm to give us all something good! Now I've got to focus on my day job for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Killer run for the 74 corridor this go around...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Foothills says it's a good trend, and Wow says it's not and not enough precip. I am confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Ha, Love LOVE LOVE this run for my area, sorry to sound greedy. By 108 the low is slow along SAV or CHS with the inverted trough through the Apps to coast, and still snowing moderately, verbatim. The problem is the models can't handle the qpf on this side of the storm, like its doing ok with around TX, TN, Ms and Al because it thinks the precip will outrun the dynamics. That probably won't happen, and the 5H feature is still seen, and the moisture should hold together and re-generate if anything around that time frame. This model is catching up to that idea, with each run I think we're seeing signs of it. The good news is it kep the low southern track, and the temps without wrapping too much warm advection. This would be a big snow hit from northeast of DFW to northern Miss. Al, GA and much of the Carolinas, and southern 2/3 of Tenn. It drops .75" over Upstate to here . Still snowing at 120hour...the inverted trough still there.:snowman: Robert, you keep me hopeful when I become doubtful. I hope you're right. I've seen QPF amounts double in one model run suite (like it did for the Feb 04 event) and I've seen them stick to their guns and end up pretty accurate (like the xmas storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 NC folks calm down, still snowing there at 132 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Hope this run bears fruit Shawn with the less ice, and even better trends forward! Yeah, I mean there's still ice for sure.. but nothing like what it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Actuay, I need to correct what I said earlier...surface temps are around 24 on Monday morning as precip starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socar2001 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Would the latest run keep cae out of a potentially disastrous ice storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Killer run for the 74 corridor this go around...wow. 0.5" line again follows I-40 per Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Indeed. Its flexing its muscle even more on this run. Not a good trend for heavy NC snowfall. That vortex is long gone and serves to keep the southern stream on a good track, climo speaking. Its really not hurting us I don't think, it wil act to keep this from going to DC. In my opinon, NC and northern SC will do about as well as any place else, I'm not going by the verbatim output either (alhtough .75" pretty widespread is nothing to sneeze at). With the lingering inverted trough, NC may in fact be the snowiest state when all is said and done. I really like the trends, and couldn't have hoped for better run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Based off this run, anyone privy to the QPF totals for the major cities in the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 It sounds like a great run for a lot of the SE crew. I'd say that's a win win. Thanks for play by play of the Euro guys. Keep those totals coming for NC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 That vortex is long gone and serves to keep the southern stream on a good track, climo speaking. Its really not hurting us I don't think, it wil act to keep this from going to DC. In my opinon, NC and northern SC will do about as well as any place else, I'm not going by the verbatim output either (alhtough .75" pretty widespread is nothing to sneeze at). With the lingering inverted trough, NC may in fact be the snowiest state when all is said and done. I really like the trends, and couldn't have hoped for better run. Agree, you kept the faith and things are looking good. This set of models is a winner for a lot of folks on this board. Lets hope it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Very unusual where most of the precip, if not all of the precip falls with 850mb below 0c on this run for Southern South Carolina which would be great news in terms of avoiding more ZR problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 With the SW weaker, it allows the next trough to continue the light snow later on, The Euro has at least .5 for all of NC except the far NE corner. If you guys get 4-6" up there and I get 7-8", no whining allowed/ Cheez, Did you men at least 0.25"? I see 0.25"+, not 0.50"+, for all but the far NE corner. I see ~0.70" qpf for KATL, all as snow. ..wow!! Would be biggest mod.+ Nina snow since 2/1894! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Killer run for the 74 corridor this go around...wow. Yes. Most of our snow fall with temps around -4 at 850, and the EURO holds surface temps in the 20's bound from northern 1/3 or GA to all the western Carolinas. Thats a great storm, imo. With snow fallng most of the day, great track. I'm not sure why folks are worried on the QPF numbers printed. A typical 80's storm dropped .50 to .75" liquid equivalent, and this looks no different. If anything it could easily top 1" equivalent widespread in Ga dn the Carolinas. Pinch me, I'm dreaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 With the SW weaker, it allows the next trough to continue the light snow later on, The Euro has at least .5 for all of NC except the far NE corner. If you guys get 4-6" up there and I get 7-8", no whining allowed/ [JI] 4" events bore me. I need a foot. [/JI] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Awesome disco guys, thanks to all you mets our there for keeping us informed! I'm going to be as nervous as a cat over water for the next three days or so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wow, like Foothills is saying this is a pretty sweet run for us. We have to also remember this is going to be a long duration event so instead of a quick 4-5 inches falling over a 10 hour period it is going to be over a long period so light precip will begin to add up over time. Colder air aloft will also lead to high ratios so even if total precip is lower we will do better because of the colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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