georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 From Kirk Mellish in Atlanta : With the Sunday-Tuesday winter storm still in the poorly sampled Pacific Ocean West of CA it's too early to get into specifics on amounts and type of precip or location as a lot variation still exisits in model output with the system still about 4 days away. The NOAA consensus surface low track is as of this morning, starting on the TX Southeast coast Sunday morning on to just South of the AL/FL Pan Handle Monday morning heading NE to just Southeast of Cape Hatteras NC Tuesday morning. Obviously the various numerical simulation equations differ on the track and thermal profiles and if it's a miller A, B, or hybrid of some kind will make a world of difference in precip type and amount for everyone. I almost never try to get specific until a system in question gets well into the USA mainland where better atmosphere sampling can occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Just tuned back in- feeling better again. GGEM is colder, GFS still says some sleet/ice but both suggest a 4-6" snow event here. The upper low is still offshore, but the models still in unusually good agreement. I would like to see KATL get that elusive 6". I wonder when FFC will grow a pair and change the way too timid "50% chance of rain and snow" forecast. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wow...the GFS gives me a couple inches of snow, followed by some sleet and topping it off with about .60 in ice Now that would be a storm...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ben Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think that discussion was actually from tim coleman and not James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Just tuned back in- feeling better again. GGEM is colder, GFS still says some sleet/ice but both suggest a 4-6" snow event here. The upper low is still offshore, but the models still in unusually good agreement. I would like to see KATL get that elusive 6". I wonder when FFC will grow a pair and change the way too timid "50% chance of rain and snow" forecast. Sheesh. Yeah, wouldn't that be something for KATL to get that elusive 6" storm and get a White Christmas for the first time in 130 years in the same winter ???? That would qualify as possibly the best winter ever, or certainly rank in the top 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Here in NE Gwinnett, I get more of what the upper part of north Georgia gets. And when there's a wedge, we're right in the middle of it. A good wedge will go right thru here and all the way into Ala. so I can enjoy those, but I agree the weather from far N. Atl and up is quite different. I have seen many a chance fall to you folks that pass me by even when I was in Atl. Clippers especially. That is why I love a Miller A, but I always dance on the edge of transition because I'm so close to the fire that provides the moisture. But a little cad can beat the meanest waa quite often. I've had fewer ice storms here than I expected when I moved, but one was a ten day without power duzy, Bonfires burned for days getting rid of the pine limbs. And that was the last big one. An inch or more of zrain now would be as bad or worse, since it has been so long. Mostly when it snows in Atl. I get snow, and when it is sleet, the snow line might be Jonesboro or even Sandy Springs with a mix from here to there. I think this one will be a nice mix for me and Fide and Psalm...though I never discount a z storm as we are way overdue for a city killer. Snow for you folks, unless this thing pulls north into Ga. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I've lived in Georgia since 1992 and have always been uncertain as what peoples understanding was of where North GA begins and ends. If you split GA in half, the center line runs W to E through about Macon, If you split it in thirds, the northern 1/3 line mentioned earlier running through about Newnan to McDonough on east would be about right. It has amazed me over the years, how many times the I-20 line has been the dividing line or cutoff line for significant winter precip. Hopefully this next storm goes much further south with snow and ice than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I wonder when FFC will grow a pair and change the way too timid "50% chance of rain and snow" forecast. Sheesh. Doubt they will.....but there's a 100% chance that you'll read something like: "will defer any winter weather decision to later shifts and wait for new model runs." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I've lived in Georgia since 1992 and have always been uncertain as what peoples understanding was of where North GA begins and ends. If you split GA in half, the center line runs W to E through about Macon, If you split it in thirds, the northern 1/3 line mentioned earlier running through about Newnan to McDonough on east would be about right. It has amazed me over the years, how many times the I-20 line has been the dividing line or cutoff line for significant winter precip. Hopefully this next storm goes much further south with snow and ice than normal. I think you are right on the southern edge of Northern GA in Fayette County. One time I was curious so I divided the western part of the state from the GA/TN border to the FL border and divided it into third's. What I came up with was the Northern Third extended as far south as about Newnan and McDonough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLI4SCwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wow...the GFS gives me a couple inches of snow, followed by some sleet and topping it off with about .60 in ice Now that would be a storm...lol Give me 33 and Rain anyday over that .60 of ice! Yuck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wow...the GFS gives me a couple inches of snow, followed by some sleet and topping it off with about .60 in ice Now that would be a storm...lol that is pretty much Jan 88 over again in CAE, although 88 had less ice, mostly Snow/Sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcrazy Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Jeff Crum (News 14 Carolina) has this posted on his blog http://wx-or-not-nc.blogspot.com/2011/01/different-take-on-next-week.html with a map showing freezing rain and sleet for most of NC and upstate SC "Mike Dross of Wright-Weather has a different take on early next week. Given it's Dross, we'll need to track this concept as well. Ice bad, snow good and all are on the table at this point. 2002 we don't need. I'm just saying...." Not sure what this is based upon, any clues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 All makes sense. Problem is, on the Christmas storm, when the disturbance hit the coast is when the Euro went off the deep end! From Kirk Mellish in Atlanta : With the Sunday-Tuesday winter storm still in the poorly sampled Pacific Ocean West of CA it's too early to get into specifics on amounts and type of precip or location as a lot variation still exisits in model output with the system still about 4 days away. The NOAA consensus surface low track is as of this morning, starting on the TX Southeast coast Sunday morning on to just South of the AL/FL Pan Handle Monday morning heading NE to just Southeast of Cape Hatteras NC Tuesday morning. Obviously the various numerical simulation equations differ on the track and thermal profiles and if it's a miller A, B, or hybrid of some kind will make a world of difference in precip type and amount for everyone. I almost never try to get specific until a system in question gets well into the USA mainland where better atmosphere sampling can occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 One hell of a north trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 some GFS snow charts. Only through 120 hours: GSP RAX Edit: the totals in the mountains reflect the upslope event prior to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 some GFS snow charts. Only through 120 hours: GSP RAX Doesn't really seem like much of a storm with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Not done yet on those maps Brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Wow...the GFS gives me a couple inches of snow, followed by some sleet and topping it off with about .60 in ice Now that would be a storm...lol Hope most of that works out, but I hope you don't get the ice. You and Jose might be sitting in the dark. It is 49 and sunny here. Hardly looks like an historic cold might be coming, but it appears to be on it's way. Goofy gives me zrain, sleet, snow, zrain, rain and drizzle according to bufkit, lol. Fun times ahead. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Euro rolling, out to 24. No big differences so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Alright everyone get your chips, soda, and popcorn ready b/c the mighty Euro is getting ready take the podium........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Doesn't really seem like much of a storm with that. Proabbly more moisture still coming...plus I wonder if it shows ice as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 Robert, I assume one of the things you will REALLY be looking at wrt the Euro is the low pressure and whether it's stronger for longer (as has been the trend in a lof of the modeling). Hope you can give us a PBP of this important feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I think you are right on the southern edge of Northern GA in Fayette County. One time I was curious so I divided the western part of the state from the GA/TN border to the FL border and divided it into third's. What I came up with was the Northern Third extended as far south as about Newnan and McDonough. Here's the breakdown from FFC although they don't really tell you where the dividing line is http://www.daculaweather.com/climate_new.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 I'm getting a little worried for our folks in central and northern Mississipp and Alabama , as well as GA, where it what falls won't be snow, but won't be rain. The 1025 high dams and ensures constant northeast winds and dry air entrainment, so the surface temps are going to be in upper 20's, with ZR falling (or sleet in some areas). Some areas could get .75" of pure ZR from this , hopefully there will be enough mixing to keep the true ZR accumulations down, but this could end up an historic ice storm in some communities. The surface freezing line stays put sout of ATL to just north of JAN. That would be devastating in parts of Ms, Al and GA. Robert, I have been in a Managers meeting ALL morning. Does our areas stand the threat of a substantial amount of zr? If not, are we borderline? I have post traumatic syndrome of Dec 2002. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 36 hours, biggest difference is that the PV/eastern trough is deeper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 s/w much stronger at 48 compared to 0z.. a tad bit faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 The euro also has light snow over most of the Carolinas tomorrow night, some pockets of 1" maybe in the piedmont. The mtns do very well. Otherwise, no major changes I see unless its the closed low over Arizona (opened up on other models) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 36 hours, biggest difference is that the PV/eastern trough is deeper but about equal in strength at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 With 500 projected to go negative over Texas (on virtually ALL the models) this will be fun watching precip EXPLODE to the north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 6, 2011 Share Posted January 6, 2011 36 hours, biggest difference is that the PV/eastern trough is deeper It sucks how the things that help part of the SE with this storm hurt others. Anyone south of TN/NC is pulling for a stronger PV, while those of us further north want it to get outta the way and stop crushing the storm once it gets further east. I guess there is no one thing that will allow everyone to fully cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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