burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 temps on this run seem a little funky...looks like a big ice storm for 40 south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 That shows a pretty serious ice storm stretching from just south of AGS up to north of ILM. There's a thin area of 15MM(.59") with a wider area of 10MM(.39") New load of firewood..check...plastic sheeting to block the rest of the house off...check...propane for the camping grill...check That would be some nasty stuff, and while I don't mind an ice storm I'm hoping for more IP/SN than ZR..but I'll take whatever old man winter gives us CAE... .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF DRY...THEN MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM BEYOND SUNDAY REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS ON BOTH SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING SOME PRECIP DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...LASTING INTO MONDAY. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY MORNING AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING RAIN WITH THE PRECIP BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY MONDAY. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH THIS SUNDAY NIGHT SYSTEM. EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SYSTEM. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY PINNING DOWN A DEFINED TRACK. ALSO UNCERTAINTY AS TO AMOUNT OF COLD AIR IN PLACE. DUE TO ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY KIND OF SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIP WORDING. WILL HOWEVER INCLUDE MENTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WILL BE ABLE TO PIN THINGS DOWN A LITTLE BETTER IN THE DAYS AHEAD.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yes, this GFS sucks- bad bad ice event here if it verifies. Could be snow or sleet at first if there is evap cooling though. Hope the Euro holds serve, I do NOT want a big ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 temps on this run seem a little funky...looks like a big ice storm for 40 south. I noticed it as well. It's looking real nasty at the rate this is going. Look what ends up happening at 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yes, this GFS sucks- bad bad ice event here if it verifies. Could be snow or sleet at first if there is evap cooling though. Hope the Euro holds serve, I do NOT want a big ice storm. Does the GFS just show ice for CAD favored areas of NE GA and the Carolinas or doe sit show ice all the way to Atlanta and Alabama ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Per the 18z GSP looks like the big winner on snow is GSP and the foothills of NC. Everything south of a line from about Shelby to CLT NC is ZR into CAE to ATL...RDU goes to ZR at around 123 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Does the GFS just show ice for CAD favored areas of NE GA and the Carolinas or doe sit show ice all the way to Atlanta and Alabama ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Thanks. I sure hope we don't get any ice. I'd rather have a cold rain anyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 wow the gfs would be quite the sleet storm for parts of north al, ga and sc. The above ground warm layer is just barely above freezing (1c or less) with a significant subfreezing boundary layer..temps in the upper 20s. Dsaur is going to bounce off the walls with this run lol It should be noted though that if precip is heavy enough soundings suggest it probably would switch to all snow. Either way a big winter hit for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yes, this GFS sucks- bad bad ice event here if it verifies. Could be snow or sleet at first if there is evap cooling though. Hope the Euro holds serve, I do NOT want a big ice storm. Yep, I don't think anyone in the south wants this to verify except for maybe GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Per the 18z GSP looks like the big winner on snow is GSP and the foothills of NC. Everything south of a line from about Shelby to CLT NC is ZR into CAE to ATL...RDU goes to ZR at around 123 hours. Soundings seem to support SN here: Date: 5 day AVN valid 18Z MON 10 JAN 11 Station: 35.31,-81.23 Latitude: 35.31 Longitude: -81.23 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 174 SFC 990 254 -1.4 -2.5 92 1.1 -1.9 37 13 272.5 273.0 271.8 281.2 3.20 2 950 581 -4.5 -4.8 98 0.3 -4.6 43 22 272.6 273.1 271.4 280.3 2.82 3 900 1007 -2.9 -3.2 98 0.3 -3.1 76 25 278.5 279.0 275.5 287.8 3.34 4 850 1464 0.7 0.5 98 0.2 0.5 123 23 286.9 287.7 281.4 300.1 4.65 5 800 1951 0.4 0.2 98 0.2 0.3 158 25 291.6 292.5 283.7 305.7 4.85 6 750 2468 -1.4 -1.5 99 0.2 -1.4 178 27 295.1 295.9 284.8 308.5 4.56 7 700 3015 -4.3 -4.7 97 0.4 -4.5 185 27 297.7 298.4 285.0 309.3 3.84 8 650 3595 -7.7 -11.2 76 3.5 -8.9 210 28 300.2 300.7 284.5 307.9 2.49 9 600 4217 -8.3 -23.8 27 15.5 -12.3 224 41 306.5 306.7 285.2 309.6 0.93 10 550 4887 -12.1 -32.7 16 20.5 -16.1 229 46 309.7 309.8 285.8 311.2 0.45 11 500 5608 -17.7 -30.7 31 13.0 -20.1 232 50 311.5 311.6 286.6 313.5 0.59 12 450 6386 -24.0 -27.8 71 3.8 -24.7 232 56 313.1 313.2 287.4 316.0 0.86 13 400 7234 -31.0 -32.0 90 1.1 -31.1 232 63 314.8 314.9 287.8 317.0 0.65 14 350 8166 -38.4 -41.9 70 3.4 -38.7 234 70 316.9 317.0 288.1 317.9 0.28 15 300 9209 -45.0 -52.0 45 7.0 -45.3 238 86 321.9 322.0 289.5 322.3 0.10 16 250 10406 -51.9 -59.1 42 7.2 -52.1 243 99 328.9 328.9 291.5 329.1 0.05 17 200 11835 -56.7 -65.5 32 8.8 -56.9 247 100 343.0 343.0 295.1 343.1 0.03 18 150 13657 -57.8 -70.9 17 13.1 -58.0 250 92 370.4 370.4 300.7 370.5 0.02 19 100 16160 -65.5 -79.9 12 14.4 -65.6 257 68 401.2 401.2 305.4 401.3 0.01 TRP 0 WND 0 it's way too close for comfort though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Soundings seem to support SN here: it's way too close for comfort though Yea I'm just eyeballing that 850 line which is never accurate....but yea like you said it's too close. Maybe it's just the funky temp profiles on the GFS or just me wishcasting but this run just looks odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Another thing is this looks to be a two day event for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yea I'm just eyeballing that 850 line which is never accurate....but yea like you said it's too close. Maybe it's just the funky temp profiles on the GFS or just me wishcasting but this run just looks odd. Only a 5C difference between the euro and GFS at the 850 level..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Almost that much between 18z GFS and 12z GFS!!! Only a 5C difference between the euro and GFS at the 850 level..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 12Z WED GFS MeteoStar output has SAV (airport) at 30-32 F from midnight to noon Mon. 1/10 with mainly NNE winds, i.e., winds not off of the warmer ocean. During that time, there is ~0.60" of qpf. and 850's start from +1 to +2 C and rise to ~+4 C. Those 850's are consistent with IP that turns to ZR assuming decent wedging/low level cold/dry and little to no marine influence. So, this gfs run is literally saying the area just west of the city would have a significant IP/ZR event with the city also at risk since it is only 5-10 miles SE of there. I don't ever recall seeing model output like this there since I started following models during the 1990's. So, it has my attention fwiw. The thing that makes me doubtful is that there usually is a parent high centered in/near the NE US in situations like this to feed abundant cold/dry air at the lowest levels on NE to NNE winds. However, actual IP/ZR storms in this area have been quite rare. Therefore, there's not much climo to consider as far as position of the parent high. By the way, the greatest snowstorm in SAV recorded history occurred on 1/9-11/1800. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The question is whether or not the huge temp changes will become a trend. Unlikely IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Looked at KPDK soundings from the GFS- if it was 100% true this would be a big sleet storm with snow to start- very cold layer persists at 950-900mb. Much better than ice, and if this run is too warm aloft, a big snow is still on the table for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yep, I don't think anyone in the south wants this to verify except for maybe GSP. Does anyone remember what burger said earlier today ? Don't lose sight of the BIG Picture Don't go from model run to model run and wanting to cliff DIVE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yes, this GFS sucks- bad bad ice event here if it verifies. Could be snow or sleet at first if there is evap cooling though. Hope the Euro holds serve, I do NOT want a big ice storm. Taken a closer look at the soundings, atlanta does look like freezing rain as the warm layer is warmer. Athens looks like a solid sleet sounding and all snow in gainesville. Taken literally, the freezing rain areas are likely to be somewhere along i-20. north to atlanta and just south of athens. Ouch. Per the 18z GSP looks like the big winner on snow is GSP and the foothills of NC. Everything south of a line from about Shelby to CLT NC is ZR into CAE to ATL...RDU goes to ZR at around 123 hours. Checking columbia's soundings show a rather cold boundary layer. Very well could be sleet there rather than freezing rain after starting as snow. btw folks, please do NOT post the large images from ncep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 18z DGEX really hammers northern ms,al,ga,sc. and southern TN/NC. It is way more robust with the precip shield than the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 18 UTC GFS snow forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 wow the gfs would be quite the sleet storm for parts of north al, ga and sc. The above ground warm layer is just barely above freezing (1c or less) with a significant subfreezing boundary layer..temps in the upper 20s. Dsaur is going to bounce off the walls with this run lol It should be noted though that if precip is heavy enough soundings suggest it probably would switch to all snow. Either way a big winter hit for many. Lol, only when I hear the roar. Seriously, this thing is far from decided, but the constant to me is the amount of precip. I think whatever falls there will be a lot of it and over a number of days. Remember..you wanted all my zrain... but I'm leaning more toward sleet/snow at this point, though I don't think the next few days are sorted out good yet either. With colder air filtering in and bits of energy in the stream, a surprise before Sun might occur. I saw a mention of the SnoJam episode, but that one had rock hard frozen ground way ahead of it, and I don't see any super hard freeze before Sun. do you? T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Per the 18z GSP looks like the big winner on snow is GSP and the foothills of NC. Everything south of a line from about Shelby to CLT NC is ZR into CAE to ATL...RDU goes to ZR at around 123 hours. Red flag imo that this model is having some continuity issues when looking at the differences between 200-500mb panels, compared to previous runs. ZR at RDU does not support a Miller A, climo speaking. The differences at 200mb compared to the 12z run are significant, and until we start to see some run-to-run continuity, I would pick the ens mean verifying over the op at this stage. snippet from RAH's afternoon disco P-TYPE DISTRIBUTION WITH A MILLER `A` IS TYPICALLY RAIN VS SNOW WITH ONLY A NARROW CORRIDOR OF TRANSITION P-TYPE... THE MILLER TYPE A SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT IN THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Here's QPF from the DGEX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Here's QPF from the DGEX: It puts down 12-18" from north ga through GSP and CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 18z DGEX really hammers northern ms,al,ga,sc. and southern TN/NC. It is way more robust with the precip shield than the 18z GFS 15-18" for almost everyone bounded by an area along I-85/I-26/US 74 triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well this is certainly interesting to say the least. It looks, right now, like a lot of us may see winter wx...I like that the chances are into central ga in case it moves north. Of course, tts would put the ice farther north. Last huge sleet storm in Athens was 4" in 1979. While that was happening far north and ne ga got a lot of snow. I am still cautious and dubious of these snowfall amounts (heck 3-4" and i get ecstatic). This huge numbers rarely verify. But even half of what is being shown would be an awesome storm Ax for speed, i realize the models are showing a slower moving storm, however I cant really remember that many around here so i would not be surprised to see it speed up a bit. Could still be a doozy of a storm. And if the really cold air comes on in we could have it on the ground for quite a while. Many times after it snows or ices it warms up fairly quickly (last year being an exception) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 It puts down 12"+ from north ga through GSP and CLT How much does it put down for north al ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 15-18" for almost everyone bounded by an area along I-85/I-26/US 74 triangle. Man, I hope you guys can get it good for a change. This storm, though...just seems kinda sleety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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