The Jan 9-11 Storm

[ams30721us]

GFS snowfall map is a hoot to look at...

Shows 4-6" for all of Georgia north Columbus to north of Macon to Augusta with the exception of far NW GA where is shows less.

Ha WOW as always! lol I still remember what they were showing the night before the Christmas Snow that dropped 5-8 inches up here haha (Less than an inch!)

[Lookout]

Then everyone is going to get at least 0.10 of freezing rain on top of it. 4 to 6 inches of snow on a frozen ground with temps in the mid to upper 20s and then throw on 0.10 to 0.25 of freezing rain and you are talking about a recipe for The roads to be an absolute nightmare. In fact, travel would be nearly impossible with several inches of snow with ice on top of it. So if this gfs run verified, this is about as high of an impact winter storm as it gets here.

btw forgot to mention roads would be awful for at least a couple of days. Tuesday we briefly warm above freezing for a little while before dropping below freezing again and not rise above freezing wed with strong caa and snow cover. And it looks like we might not rise above freezing thursday either.

[jburns]

Ha WOW as always! lol I still remember what they were showing the night before the Christmas Snow that dropped 5-8 inches up here haha (Less than an inch!)

As a pro forecaster I'm sure your having a memory that can go back almost three weeks is a very valuable asset.

[flurry]

Major ice storm for central MS and AL from 72-84hrs

Get your candles ready Birmingham!

Please don't say that...Anything but ice, especially on the night of the NC game!!

[georgiawx11]

btw forgot to mention roads would be awful for at least a couple of days. Tuesday we briefly warm above freezing for a little while before dropping below freezing again and not rise above freezing wed with strong caa and snow cover. And it looks like we might not rise above freezing thursday either.

So it looks like you're thinking temps could be several degrees cooler than what the NWS is forecasting from Sun-Wed, with highs near 40 each day in Atlanta.

[Jet Stream Rider]

you answered your own question, it is too early to pin-point who, where, and what with regards to dominant p-types as there is still a fair amount of uncertainty. The GFS imo is currently an outlier with regards to its handling of the UL features. This model dampens and shears out the vort quicker than the GGEM and ECMWF, however, it deepens the 850 low on a track from New Orleans through the Cumberland Plateau, only to have it jump to the coast near the VA Capes thereafter.

The ECMWF on the other hand is more consolidated with the southern stream parcel, and does not deepen the 850 like the GFS does. It tracks a weak 850 low through central MS-AL, and then offshore around ILM. Huge difference in this regard with sig implications depending on which model is right. Given the Euro's more comprehensive data injest, higher resolution, and better verification scores, it should be given more weight than the GFS and Canadian at this stage.

The GGEM is similar to the EC in its depiction of keeping the H5 low intact, although the Canadian has the ULL in AR, while the EC has it in MS. This is reasonable agreement and supports the assumption of the GFS being out to lunch on how it handles the UL energy. The Canadian is different from the Euro though in how it handles the 850. It takes the 850 low from the central gulf coast up through the TN Valley, with no jump to the coast until 144hrs, and by that time it is just east of NJ. Huge difference and major implications as to who, what, when, where, and why.

Even at this stage, there still considerable uncertainty. A hybrid scenario, like the Canadian shows, would mean a broader bag of p-type issues, whereas an event similar to the ECMWF would cut down on ZR and IP zones, with a more RN-SN event. I looked at the Skew-T plots for RDU and PGV from the 0z Euro, and both places look like at predominantly SN or IP event, with the column <0C for the duration. Saturation above 700mb looks less than impressive, as do 700mb temps. That could indicate plates and columns (IP), if temps and moisture aloft are not supportive of nucleation (SN).

Thanks for the excellent reply WeatherNC. We had tempurature issues with the Christmas system, and it limited our snow accumulation. There is certainly a very cold air mass for central North America on the way.

[FoothillsNC]

I'm getting a little worried for our folks in central and northern Mississipp and Alabama , as well as GA, where it what falls won't be snow, but won't be rain. The 1025 high dams and ensures constant northeast winds and dry air entrainment, so the surface temps are going to be in upper 20's, with ZR falling (or sleet in some areas). Some areas could get .75" of pure ZR from this , hopefully there will be enough mixing to keep the true ZR accumulations down, but this could end up an historic ice storm in some communities.

The surface freezing line stays put sout of ATL to just north of JAN. That would be devastating in parts of Ms, Al and GA.

[Cold Rain]

I am not liking the upper air temps shown by the GFS for the Raleigh area. The track of the system seems to be a good snow track for here, but you wouldn't know it by looking at the 850s.

[Gastonwxman]

I'm getting a little worried for our folks in central and northern Mississipp and Alabama , as well as GA, where it what falls won't be snow, but won't be rain. The 1025 high dams and ensures constant northeast winds and dry air entrainment, so the surface temps are going to be in upper 20's, with ZR falling (or sleet in some areas). Some areas could get .75" of pure ZR from this , hopefully there will be enough mixing to keep the true ZR accumulations down, but this could end up an historic ice storm in some communities.

The surface freezing line stays put sout of ATL to just north of JAN. That would be devastating in parts of Ms, Al and GA.

That was my concern with them as well. It just spells out the word "crippling" for them. Icy destruction is all I could say at this point. Heck, you'd think they were experiencing our Dec. 2002 ice storm to an extent.

[Lookout]

So it looks like you're thinking temps could be several degrees cooler than what the NWS is forecasting from Sun-Wed, with highs near 40 each day in Atlanta.

As it stands now, there is virtually no chance their temps verify. But you shouldn't pay much attention to long range temp forecasts from ffc, they almost always go with climo or subtract just a few degrees from it and ignore what really looks like happening.

[Lookout]

only out to 72 but here is the 12z ggem

[MotoWeatherman]

only out to 72 but here is the 12z ggem

The 500mb feature is way more robust at 548 than the GFS. I bet the QPF on this run will be huge.

[beanskip]

At 72, GGEM has a weaker surface low and somewhat less precip than 0z run -- fwiw.

[dsaur]

I'm getting a little worried for our folks in central and northern Mississipp and Alabama , as well as GA, where it what falls won't be snow, but won't be rain. The 1025 high dams and ensures constant northeast winds and dry air entrainment, so the surface temps are going to be in upper 20's, with ZR falling (or sleet in some areas). Some areas could get .75" of pure ZR from this , hopefully there will be enough mixing to keep the true ZR accumulations down, but this could end up an historic ice storm in some communities.

The surface freezing line stays put sout of ATL to just north of JAN. That would be devastating in parts of Ms, Al and GA.

So the ptype issue is as much an artifact of possible phasing with the following impulse as with the actual low placement in Fla/sGa? Thanks, T

[burrel2]

ggem looks a lot colder to me at 72 hours. the northeast vortex hangs around a little longer. I imagine the snow line will be farther south on this run.

[jburns]

As it stands now, there is virtually no chance their temps verify. But you shouldn't pay much attention to long range temp forecasts from ffc, they almost always go with climo or subtract just a few degrees from it and ignore what really looks like happening.

Tax money well spent. They better watch out in the current political climate. There are much cheaper ways to generate that type of forecast.

[weatherheels]

That was my concern with them as well. It just spells out the word "crippling" for them. Icy destruction is all I could say at this point. Heck, you'd think they were experiencing our Dec. 2002 ice storm to an extent.

7 1/2 days, no power. I do not wish that on anyone. Worst storm of my life by far.

Unfortunately it looks like someone is going to deal with a lot of ice... all you can do is prepare for the worst, watch after the old people and pets.

[jburns]

7 1/2 days, now power. I do not wish that on anyone. Worst storm of my life by far.

Unfortunately it looks like someone is going to deal with a lot of ice... all you can do is prepare for the worst, watch after the old people and pets.

Yeah, I've been through several nasty ones over the years. Pretty loses its appeal when your sitting in the cold and dark for several days. Here's hoping for 33 and rain for the most threatened areas.

I'm 63 with two dogs. If you want to watch over me come on over and we can get drunk and watch porn.

[Poimen]

I think the GGEM is going lift everyone's spirits around here.

[beanskip]

Some changes on the Canadian.

At 84, (0z Monday) precip has still not reached Georgia. Low is 1004mb vs 999 mb on 0z run.

Colder, too.

[Brick Tamland]

GFS is slower with the northern stream energy this run. For us here in NC, we need the energy to not be too late, or this may never come together for a major system. The southern stream s/w WILL damp out as it moves into the confluent flow. This mean that the precip associated with it will weaken as it moves east from MS/TN/AL/GA into the Carolinas, we need the northern stream energy to dive in and keep it going and spark coastal development. That is the recipe for a major winter storm here.

Now doubt is starting to creep in. I hope it comes together, but worried about the GFS slowing it down.

[beanskip]

Huge south trend in Canadian -- Miller B A

[Brick Tamland]

I am not liking the upper air temps shown by the GFS for the Raleigh area. The track of the system seems to be a good snow track for here, but you wouldn't know it by looking at the 850s.

Matthew east said in his blog post this morning to not be worried about the 850 line here.

[Brick Tamland]

GFS snowfall map is a hoot to look at...

Shows 4-6" for all of Georgia north Columbus to north of Macon to Augusta with the exception of far NW GA where is shows less.

Is there a link to the snowfall maps?

[MotoWeatherman]

Is there a link to the snowfall maps?

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=01&model_dd=06&model_init_hh=12&fhour=114&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=text&view=large&archive=false

[Poimen]

Is there a link to the snowfall maps?

here's one:

GFS

[WeatherNC]

I am not liking the upper air temps shown by the GFS for the Raleigh area. The track of the system seems to be a good snow track for here, but you wouldn't know it by looking at the 850s.

All one has to do is look at the 850mb maps over the past 4 runs to see the GFS is still struggling on strength and placement of the low. At-least the Euro has been consistent in this area, and I expect the GFS to trend in that direction within the 72hr window. An 850 track through E TN or W NC is not conducive for all SN in central and eastern NC, any way you slice it. From my understanding, and those in the know correct me if I am wrong, the 850 should track just to the SW of the H5 vort, and that would yield a track from LA to the OBX, or just south of there based on the GFS's H5 depiction. The Euro is a safer bet currently, with a weak 850 taking a more plausible track given it's UL setup.

[beanskip]

Through 120 hours, Canadian looks much more like GFS/Euro -- much better run from a snow vs. ice standpoint for N. Ga./NW SC.

Pretty skimpy on N.C. QPF, but I know I'm not allowed to worry about that yet.

[FoothillsNC]

overall, I'm amazed at the agreement. ECMWF, GGEM, NAM GFS all very similar now with the track and setup. The GGEM is almost a carbon copy of the GFS, and another big hit for the same areas. Lets hope the ECMWF is the same.

[DaculaWeather]

I think someone said earlier about the Euro becoming the better model to watch at this point for multiple reasons.